Alberta & Uniting Conservatives

[August1991]

In all honesty, I am clueless about current Albertan provincial politics. The intricacies of Wild Rose vs Progressive Conservative, no idea.

But I read recently that Brian Jean, Wild Rose leader, is willing to unite with Progressive Conservative, Jason Kenney.

Can someone here, on this forum, explain this to me? Uh, Kimmy?

[kimmy]

10 hours ago, August1991 said:

Uh, Kimmy?

I'm a little out of the loop myself, having not lived in Alberta for a long time.

But I believe the situation is quite similar to the "unite the right" efforts in federal politics that eventually led to the Progressive Conservative and Reform parties merging.  It seems likely that vote-splitting between the two "right wing" parties will result in more NDP victories in the future.

The Wild Rose party sprang up largely as a right-leaning protest against the Progressive Conservatives who had been in power for decades and had grown too cozy with business and too corrupt. Now that the Progressive Conservatives have been unseated and undergone a housecleaning, one wonders if there's any further need for the Wild Rose party.  I believe that the Wild Rose has gobbled up a lot of the rural voters who want a more socially-conservative government, and that might be the new divide between the PC and Wild Rose voters at this point.

 -k

[overthere]

Wildrose was formed in protest to a PC party that had gotten very centrist, socially liberal.  Initially, it was pretty much entirely the small number of Biblethunping nutters that the PCs were quite content to be rid of.  In the last election , many centrists(who in Alberta like everywhere in Canuckistan are the majority) fled the PCs in anger over the antics of PC  Premier Redford.  Many went left to the NDP, some went right to the Wildrose, some stayed put with the PCs.

 

The NDP won the election by splitting the center, not the right, since Wildrose has retained the small number of social conservatives to already had.  It would be wildly inaccurate to describe the PCs as right wing, they are and were solidly centrist.  The remainder of the PC executive has done a r=terrible job of rallying the center, and the NDP would again split the center if an election was held today.  Along comes Jason Kenney, who in the fearful eyes of the PC executive is hijacking their party.  He actually is hijacking it, but there is little they can do to stop it since PC members note that the PS exec sucks.  Kenney plans to win the pC leadership, then try to merge it with Wildrose.  In reality, the merger is a ploy to get back those moderates who defected last election.  It is very possible that his plan will work- win the PC leadership, absorb the parts of Widlrose he wants, and win the next election.  There are many bumps on the road, but it is entirely possible.  Wildrose is unelectable, and their leader Brian Jean knows this in his heart of hearts.  His plan must be now to merge with the PCs, form a new party, and win the leadership of that.....  He cannot win with Widlrose, and inevitably it will fall into sleepy time with a rump membership of Godbotherers and prolifers.

 

If it drags on too long, expect Notley fo the NDP to call  a snap election.  If she waits for Kenney to execute his plan, she will very likely be one and done.

[August1991]

On 1/28/2017 at 6:38 PM, overthere said:

....

Kenney plans to win the pC leadership, then try to merge it with Wildrose.  In reality, the merger is a ploy to get back those moderates who defected last election.  It is very possible that his plan will work- win the PC leadership, absorb the parts of Widlrose he wants, and win the next election.  There are many bumps on the road, but it is entirely possible.  Wildrose is unelectable, and their leader Brian Jean knows this in his heart of hearts.  His plan must be now to merge with the PCs, form a new party, and win the leadership of that.....  He cannot win with Widlrose, and inevitably it will fall into sleepy time with a rump membership of Godbotherers and prolifers.

.....

If it drags on too long, expect Notley fo the NDP to call  a snap election.  If she waits for Kenney to execute his plan, she will very likely be one and done.

I'm waiting for the snap election.

[Hydraboss]

On 5/23/2017 at 11:44 PM, August1991 said:

snap election

Won't happen.  If Notley tries to beat the box office by calling an election in order to hold it ahead of the merger, she knows she'll lose to the Wildrose at the moment.  If she waits, she'll lose to the United Conservatives of Alberta.  Either way, she's one and done and she and her party know it.  I'm pretty sure she'll hold out until the very, very last second to drop the writ - if the NDP have any hope in hell of being reelected, it will be because they collect all the dirt they can on the new merged party and its members.  That and she wants to introduce into law every possible "left winged" idea she can so she'll have a legacy of sorts.  Notley is likely to be the last NDP premiere for decades and very possibly the last female premiere for a very long time after our string of failed female leaders in this province.  First there was Redford who tainted everything she touched and left office in disgrace, then there was Smith (who I actually liked) who toasted her political career in the "deal with the devil", and now there's Notley who is a complete train wreck.  Albertans have memories like elephants politically, so future NDP will pay the price for every perceived "mistake" she makes.

There will be no election until May 31, 2019.

Edited May 25, 2017 by Hydraboss
sp

[taxme]

1 hour ago, Hydraboss said:

Won't happen.  If Notley tries to beat the box office by calling an election in order to hold it ahead of the merger, she knows she'll lose to the Wildrose at the moment.  If she waits, she'll lose to the United Conservatives of Alberta.  Either way, she's one and done and she and her party know it.  I'm pretty sure she'll hold out until the very, very last second to drop the writ - if the NDP have any hope in hell of being reelected, it will be because they collect all the dirt they can on the new merged party and its members.  That and she wants to introduce into law every possible "left winged" idea she can so she'll have a legacy of sorts.  Notley is likely to be the last NDP premiere for decades and very possibly the last female premiere for a very long time after our string of failed female leaders in this province.  First there was Redford who tainted everything she touched and left office in disgrace, then there was Smith (who I actually liked) who toasted her political career in the "deal with the devil", and now there's Notley who is a complete train wreck.  Albertans have memories like elephants politically, so future NDP will pay the price for every perceived "mistake" she makes.

There will be no election until May 31, 2019.

Women in politics turns men in politics into a bunch of girlie men. The men start to use way to much emotion and foolishness in their every day political life rather than using common sense and logic. Women know how to mess with men's brains and intelligence. Women cry, men break down. At least that is the way I see things these days. 

Here's to Alberta separatism.  Cheers. 

[overthere]

On 5/25/2017 at 11:03 AM, Hydraboss said:

Won't happen.  If Notley tries to beat the box office by calling an election in order to hold it ahead of the merger, she knows she'll lose to the Wildrose at the moment.  If she waits, she'll lose to the United Conservatives of Alberta.  Either way, she's one and done and she and her party know it.  I'm pretty sure she'll hold out until the very, very last second to drop the writ - if the NDP have any hope in hell of being reelected, it will be because they collect all the dirt they can on the new merged party and its members.  That and she wants to introduce into law every possible "left winged" idea she can so she'll have a legacy of sorts.  Notley is likely to be the last NDP premiere for decades and very possibly the last female premiere for a very long time after our string of failed female leaders in this province.  First there was Redford who tainted everything she touched and left office in disgrace, then there was Smith (who I actually liked) who toasted her political career in the "deal with the devil", and now there's Notley who is a complete train wreck.  Albertans have memories like elephants politically, so future NDP will pay the price for every perceived "mistake" she makes.

There will be no election until May 31, 2019.

Agreed.  Notley has stated she won't call an election before 2019.  

 

Danielle Smith recognized and acted to the same triggers that Brian Jean did.  They both knew for certain that Wildose as it is now simply cannot win an election.  Social conservatism won't win in AB, just as it will not win anywhere in Canada.  Both she and Jean failed to convince the minority of Godbotherers to back off and shut up.  Smith defected, Jean is about to dissolve the party formally.

[Hydraboss]

The difference this time is Jean is holding all the cards instead of the PCs.  I think we'll see the United party formally accept a vast majority of the WR platform since the PCs won't have a choice.  Kenny's gone too far down the garden path to reverse course and think he can retain the leadership.  I liked Danielle, but the truth is she "backstabbed" constituents by crossing the floor and for that she paid the price.  This isn't crossing - it's merging and there IS a difference in perception (I really think most people look at this as a kind of political potluck).

You and I disagreed last election about the whole "social conservative" thing and I think we both got blown away by Notley's win.  The fact is, the "godbotherers" have nowhere left to go once the merger happens so the party can pretty much quit even paying attention to them.  I think the new party will turn hard right fiscally and mildly left socially.  The real social conservatives are actually guys like Kenny and his ilk and I don't think there's any line in the sand between which party, the PC or WR, that they belong to.  They just won't have a choice next election.

[overthere]

On 6/1/2017 at 4:04 PM, Hydraboss said:

The difference this time is Jean is holding all the cards instead of the PCs.  I think we'll see the United party formally accept a vast majority of the WR platform since the PCs won't have a choice.  Kenny's gone too far down the garden path to reverse course and think he can retain the leadership.  I liked Danielle, but the truth is she "backstabbed" constituents by crossing the floor and for that she paid the price.  This isn't crossing - it's merging and there IS a difference in perception (I really think most people look at this as a kind of political potluck).

You and I disagreed last election about the whole "social conservative" thing and I think we both got blown away by Notley's win.  The fact is, the "godbotherers" have nowhere left to go once the merger happens so the party can pretty much quit even paying attention to them.  I think the new party will turn hard right fiscally and mildly left socially.  The real social conservatives are actually guys like Kenny and his ilk and I don't think there's any line in the sand between which party, the PC or WR, that they belong to.  They just won't have a choice next election.

Very obviously Jean is not holding all the cards or anything close to that, or he would never have agreed to even discuss a merger, a new party or the dissoltion of Wild Rose.

 

Jean is a a pragmatist, and like Smith before him he knows with certainty that he has to dump the Godbotherers with certainty and finality.  Smith tried hard to convince them what it would take to win, but that far right sliver just won't let anything go, there is no compromise.  That is why Smith left Wildrose in the ditch: there was no chance, none, of winning with that far right, social conservatism- its an anchor that kills any hope fo forming a govt.  Jean looks around and knows for sure that Wild Rose has peaked, and much of that success is due to disquiet with the PCs, not anything charming about Wild Rose.and their policies.

 

I agree that the 'new party' will be mnpore fiscally conservative and psotion itself in the center otherwise.  It is how you win elections in Alberta and in Canada.  Nobody gives a shit about the social conservatives, they are a liability and a curse.  Note that at the end of the Klein era, the PCs moved in this very direction socially- and in the process dumped all their weirdos on WildRose.  Now WR has to flush them once and for all.  And this is therir opportunity- which Jean is seizing with both hands.

 

The OP title does indicate, as he admits, that the OP does noit get Alberta poltics.  What is happening to not 'uniote the right', because there is not enough there to survive, much less untie.  This is about seizing the center back from Notley.

Edited June 6, 2017 by overthere

[Hydraboss]

WR doesn't have to cater to the socially conservative.  They have NOWHERE ELSE TO GO.  Jean IS holding the cards because without the WR, the PCs are still dead in the water.  Notley never captured the center - she won the lottery when the electorate got sick and tired of the PCs.  Jean was too new as a leader and WR candidates didn't do much to win the election; they sat around and expected it to come to them.  I doubt they'll make the same mistake again.

Funny...I'm been a conservative in this province my entire life and I have yet to meet a right-wing social conservative.  Never ran into one - not once.  And I've spent a lot of time talking to WR people and NOT ONE of them is against GSAs, gay marriage, abortion (at least publicly), etc.  You sound very much like a proper Progressive Conservative in Alberta painting the WR as a bunch of Trump wannabes.

[Accountability Now]

7 minutes ago, Hydraboss said:

 

Funny...I'm been a conservative in this province my entire life and I have yet to meet a right-wing social conservative.  Never ran into one - not once.  And I've spent a lot of time talking to WR people and NOT ONE of them is against GSAs, gay marriage, abortion (at least publicly), etc.  

Much like no one admitted to voting NDP....publicly that is.

[Hydraboss]

11 minutes ago, Accountability Now said:

publicly that is

And that's the point.  I could not care less what anyone thinks as long as they keep it to themselves.  And that goes for both sides of social issues.

[overthere]

19 hours ago, Hydraboss said:

WR doesn't have to cater to the socially conservative.  They have NOWHERE ELSE TO GO.  Jean IS holding the cards because without the WR, the PCs are still dead in the water.  Notley never captured the center - she won the lottery when the electorate got sick and tired of the PCs.  Jean was too new as a leader and WR candidates didn't do much to win the election; they sat around and expected it to come to them.  I doubt they'll make the same mistake again.

Funny...I'm been a conservative in this province my entire life and I have yet to meet a right-wing social conservative.  Never ran into one - not once.  And I've spent a lot of time talking to WR people and NOT ONE of them is against GSAs, gay marriage, abortion (at least publicly), etc.  You sound very much like a proper Progressive Conservative in Alberta painting the WR as a bunch of Trump wannabes.

Of course they have to cater to them, the Godbotherers are a strong enough clique  and never compromise , that the PCs were delighted to be rid of them, and they have been a boat anchor on Wildrose ever since.  It is WHY Smith ripped the party apart with defections(of the less conservative) leaving, and why the most socially conservative MLAS remained in Wildrose and still insist on policies that insure that the Party will never form a govt.  Smith knew it, and Jean does too.

 

You don't think that the rump who didn't defect were not the hardcore social conservatives?  LOL.   You are not paying attention .  They were not invited because they were not welcome by the PC govt of the time: the PCs had gone to much effort to eject these people, why invite them back?  The writing for the Godbotherers was on the wall when Ed Who?Stelmach defeated the extreme right of the old PCs, represented by Ted Morton.  The hard right read that writing and moved en masse to Wildrose, but you did not notice that then or now?

 

And please, you are being disingenuous at very best by claiming never to have met a social conservative in Wildrose!!  Were you unconscious in the Smith election campaign, when she had to repeatedly stuff  a sock in the mouths of some very hardcore conservative candidates who kept beaking on about homos etc? It cost them seats and may have cost her the Premiership.   Don't insult everybody here by pretending that they are not a serious faction within Wildrose, and a serious chronic deterrent to forming a government.

"They have NOWHERE ELSE TO GO".  The hard right crew will  have to sort that out when the two parties merger, unless they can rally and block the merger- which is possible.  They are not welcome in the new party no matter who leads it. Jean is going to lose some leverage in his campaign to lead the new party if the loons block the merger, but he will still press on because he wants to be Premier, and that just won't ever happen with Wildrose and their entrenched crazies. Obviously.  That alone is the bulk the impetus and imperative for Jean to endorse  the formation  the new party.

 

Is it insult each other time now?  Trump wannabes?  Wildrose mainstream, minus the loons, has some very serious challenges.  The first is: how to retain the centrist, PC voters they attracted last election.  They know full well that they did not come because of Wildrose policy, they came over because they were pissed at Redford et al.    Jean knows that the Wildrose banner will not keep any or many of them going forward, Wildrose has peaked right now.  The second is, how do they permanently ditch the perception that they are deeply socially conservative?  Jean is working on that in a couple of ways- by ditching the Wildrose brand, and by ditching the human  boat anchors on the far right that prevent moderate Wildrose symapathizers and the mighty center from voting for him.  If he fails in either regard, Notley wins again.  The stakes are big.  And he has no choice but to go all in, now.

 

[Hydraboss]

First, "insult each other"?  Does me calling you out as a PC sound like an insult?  It sounds like the truth.  Making the WR out to sound like Trump-alikes is an assessment on my part.  That's exactly what it sounds like.

Second, do not confuse WR social conservative MPs with WR supporters that are social conservatives.  Any hard-right/social conservative voters in Alberta have nowhere else to go as there is no electable party to the right of WR.  And, no, I have not met any socially conservative voters personally and I'm right in the heart of a yellow dog riding.

 

As for "Special Ed" Stelmach, he was about as left leaning as anyone could possibly be while still carrying a "conservative" banner.  He was anything but conservative, except for his socially conservative views and riding that kept electing him.  It was such an anomaly....the one area of Alberta (Andrew) that should have been fiscally and socially conservative as it gets, elects the the most socially idiotic and fiscally incompetent official in the PC history.

[overthere]

You missed the point entirely on why Stelmach, Redford, Prentice and now Notley got elected, and why Wildrose won't be.  None of those Premiers, or the ultimate failure of Wildrose,  are even remotely close to being an anomaly.  

The extremist socially conservative boat anchors in Wildrose will have to stay in Widlrose if they can keep the name, or form yet another party.  They won't be welcome, they cannot be welcome, anywhere else.  Wonder why?  When you know what I mean in the first sentence of this post,  you'll know why.

 

[cannuck]

I think the debate in this thread is very close to representative of Alberta politics today.   However, the NDP will pay dearly for the misery they and the co-incident collapse of oil prices inflicted on the province during their tenure.  I have to concede that Nutjob has walked a much more centrist line and has kept her looney fringe largely in check.  The reason IMHO that they got votes last time around was not only was Alberta sick of the PCs as noted above, but they had drifted so far left that it was a bit confusing as to what the hell the difference was to the NDP or any other train wreck.

[peoples advocate]

On ‎2017‎-‎01‎-‎28 at 12:21 AM, August1991 said:

In all honesty, I am clueless about current Albertan provincial politics. The intricacies of Wild Rose vs Progressive Conservative, no idea.

But I read recently that Brian Jean, Wild Rose leader, is willing to unite with Progressive Conservative, Jason Kenney.

Can someone here, on this forum, explain this to me? Uh, Kimmy?

All crooks and nothing more.

[Michael Hardner]

27 minutes ago, peoples advocate said:

All crooks and nothing more.

Cite please.

[peoples advocate]

3 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

Cite please.

Calgary

[Michael Hardner]

6 hours ago, peoples advocate said:

Calgary

"All crooks and nothing more."

Saying "Calgary" is not an explanation for that.