CPC Leadership Predictions

[Derek 2.0]

Harper spent 13 years building up his creds. Rempel has been an MP for 4 years. Trudeau only got elected, despite his youth and inexperience, because people were tired of Harper, and because he promised a big bag of goodies to everyone. Rempel will not be able to be that generous and we can't count on the country coming to hate Trudeau that quickly. It's harder to hate Liberals if you're an idiot, and most of the country is made up of idiots. Liberals smile as they steal from you, rather than being grumpy old penny pinchers like the Tories. And their gross incompetence isn't enough to boot them out as long as they can buy people off. Witness Ontario's Liberal government.

Was Harper or Trudeau in Government prior to winning their party's leadership? Did either hold cabinet portfolios?

[Derek 2.0]

He was defeated by being unable to count, and refusing to cut a deal with the Union National. He thought he could bluff his way through and he was wrong.

No, he lost by the Socreds abstaining from a confidence vote........hence a divided right.

[ToadBrother]

Was Harper or Trudeau in Government prior to winning their party's leadership? Did either hold cabinet portfolios?

Harper did function as Reform's chief policy wonk during his first term, so did hold a position of considerable influence and authority.

[Derek 2.0]

Harper did function as Reform's chief policy wonk during his first term, so did hold a position of considerable influence and authority.

How many years was Harper an MP prior to being elected party leader? In 2019, Rempel will have been an MP for as long as and longer than both Harper and Trudeau (when they won their party's leadership), in addition being member of the previous Government and in cabinet (unlike both Harper and Trudeau). As such, going into a 2019 election, Rempel will have a more experience based resume than both Harper and Trudeau.

Edited November 3, 2015 by Derek 2.0

[ToadBrother]

How many years was Harper an MP prior to being elected party leader? In 2019, Rempel will have been an MP for as long as and longer than both Harper and Trudeau (when they won their party's leadership), in addition being member of the previous Government and in cabinet (unlike both Harper and Trudeau). As such, going into a 2019 election, Rempel will have a more experience based resume than both Harper and Trudeau.

As I recall, he had only served the one term and was not in Parliament when he won the Alliance leadership, although he was an MP when he became leader of the CPC.

I do get your point, and certainly I defended Trudeau's run, but still, it's a tough hill to climb for someone in their mid-30s, and she's going to have to convince a lot of people who will view her age as a deficit.

[Derek 2.0]

I do get your point, and certainly I defended Trudeau's run, but still, it's a tough hill to climb for someone in their mid-30s, and she's going to have to convince a lot of people who will view her age as a deficit.

I disagree, I think her age is to her benefit, as is her intelligence, energy and oratory/debating skills.......and of course her sex and "image", as she will be the furthest thing from Harper during the next election. As it stands, I'd have no real issue, if she won the leadership, putting her up against an older Trudeau running on his then "record", in addition to an older Mulcair? and May.

With that, Rempel (like the others) will face many hurdles winning the CPC leadership race........as an example, I think the only presumptive runners that speak french are Ambrose, O'Toole and Jason Kenney.........but with Rempel, if she is precluded, it won't be for her age or experience.

[SpankyMcFarland]

There's a fair bit of luck involved in the timing of a run which looks like wisdom if you're successful. You may only get one good chance to be leader. The next time, somebody better may have come along.

[SpankyMcFarland]

She doesn't have the experience to be PM. If she wins interim leader she will definitely be a major player in the party thereafter (unless she screws it up) and hold a major shadow cabinet position under a new leader and then a major cabinet post in any Tory government which follows. At 35 she has plenty of time to build her creds.

I think she's at the wrong end of her career for the interim job. An elder statesman would be best, like Bob Rae, someone who can't be suspected of scheming for their own ascent to power way down the road.

[Argus]

No, he lost by the Socreds abstaining from a confidence vote........hence a divided right.

Isn't that merely rephrasing what I said? The socreds abstained because he refused to compromise with them, thinking the Liberals and NDP were bluffing.

[Derek 2.0]

Isn't that merely rephrasing what I said? The socreds abstained because he refused to compromise with them, thinking the Liberals and NDP were bluffing.

Not at all, you said:

He was defeated by being unable to count, and refusing to cut a deal with the Union National.

In addition to this:

Joe Clark was defeated by his own incompetence and naivety.

In response to my post here:

Why? Joe Clark didn't get defeated because of his age, but by a divided right.

I'm not rephrasing any of your posts........Joe Clark wouldn't have been defeated so early if the right wasn't divided..simple concept.

[Newfoundlander]

Michael Chong says he is seriously considering a leadership bid.

[PIK]

Harper built the party he led, trudeau was given his gifted wrap.

[Smallc]

Harper built the party he led, trudeau was given his gifted wrap.

No - the Liberals had be reduced to nothing before Trudeau came along. The situation, sans a merger, is not all that different from the one faced by Harper.

[Moonlight Graham]

Michael Chong says he is seriously considering a leadership bid.

That would be great. I'm sure he has the support of many backbenchers.

[Moonlight Graham]

Harper built the party he led, trudeau was given his gifted wrap.

Harper built the party up and then tore it down too.

[The_Squid]

That would be great. I'm sure he has the support of many backbenchers.

I would certainly consider voting CPC if Chong were leader.

[Big Guy]

I would hope that the Conservatives, like the current Liberals, move towards a governance by Cabinet. Then the person who is PM would have just a little more power than the caucus which put him/her there.

Personally, I like the Trudeau government by Cabinet. There seem to be a least 10 Cabinet members who are giving interviews daily. While they are not saying much yet ( I do not think that they are yet comfortable in their new roles) it is nice to hear from them. My major problem is with Stephane Dion who mangles the English language and always seems confused or angry. I would like to see him go in the first shuffle.

I also find it refreshing that many of those Conservatives who were muzzled for years are also speaking up. I had no idea that some of them were as bright as they now appear.

[Argus]

Harper built the party up and then tore it down too.

One of the most important elements of leadership is selecting and nurturing the expertise of those on lower levels of supervision below you. That way the organizatino is provided with a rich cadre of leadership for the future. Harper failed at that task in every possible way.

[Newfoundlander]

So the Manning Centre has invited those who have publicly expressed interest in the leadership to speak at their conference next month. Michael Chong, Kellie Leitch, Kevin O'Leary, Tony Clement and Maxime Bernier have thus far agreed to go.

[cybercoma]

I would certainly consider voting CPC if Chong were leader.

Hell, I would consider the CPC if Chong is leader. That's precisely why it would never happen.

[On Guard for Thee]

One of the most important elements of leadership is selecting and nurturing the expertise of those on lower levels of supervision below you. That way the organizatino is provided with a rich cadre of leadership for the future. Harper failed at that task in every possible way.

Oh I think Harper had a few people on his bench who had some expertise, and without any help from him. But he insisted on keeping them so tightly muzzled while spewing out those mind numbingly dumb talking points it was hard to see what they had. Now that's over perhaps some of those people will flourish. But first they will need to keep an eye on Trudeau and learn how a leader lets smart people who work for him speak their minds.

[ParkdaleCon]

Maxime Bernier today during his talk at the Manning Conference cleared up any doubt on him running. He laughed every time he said "If I run..."

I don't think Bernier would have much of a shot appealing to many voters outside of Quebec, but he definitely would be a factor in the race, and a potential key endorsement at some point.

By the way, it has yet to be decided what kind of leadership convention it will be, right? Or is it assumed it will be the "points" system from 2004 when Harper won?

Edited February 28, 2016 by ParkdaleCon

[Big Guy]

Maxime Bernier today during his talk at the Manning Conference cleared up any doubt on him running. He laughed every time he said "If I run..."

I don't think Bernier would have much of a shot appealing to many voters outside of Quebec, but he definitely would be a factor in the race, and a potential key endorsement at some point.

By the way, it has yet to be decided what kind of leadership convention it will be, right? Or is it assumed it will be the "points" system from 2004 when Harper won?

I heard that Maxime had a really exceptional speech prepared but he left it at his girlfriends place.

[ParkdaleCon]

I heard that Maxime had a really exceptional speech prepared but he left it at his girlfriends place.

Sons of Anarchy!

I think Maxime has been positioning himself subtly as a leadership candidate long before Harper stepped down.

I think obviously if Jason Kenney does run, he is the clear favourite. If he stays out, this race is pretty wide open. I hope Kenney stays out, and I think its more likely for him to pursue a united right in AB and go after Notley in the next AB election. I don't think it would be good for the CPC to go with Harper's "heir apparent".

If she runs, I will be supporting Lisa Raitt.

[On Guard for Thee]

Maxime Bernier today during his talk at the Manning Conference cleared up any doubt on him running. He laughed every time he said "If I run..."

I don't think Bernier would have much of a shot appealing to many voters outside of Quebec, but he definitely would be a factor in the race, and a potential key endorsement at some point.

By the way, it has yet to be decided what kind of leadership convention it will be, right? Or is it assumed it will be the "points" system from 2004 when Harper won?

Hmmm, my guess is that they won't go down any road that would lead to plunking another Harper type at the helm. Especially as they witness how JT lets his people actually express opinions, instead of "cast in stone" talking points. How well that is being received by the country will I suspect, impact their thinking. I would love to be a fly on the wall at that convention.