SpankyMcFarland Posted August 31, 2015 Report Share Posted August 31, 2015 Former Minister Kevin O'Brien resigned his seat today to run federally. O'Brien left cabinet earlier in the year after spending about ten years in various posts. At the time of the cabinet shuffle he announced he was planning to run federally. He was going to get hammered in the provincial election against John Haggie and I see no hope for him at all in the federal election either. Perhaps he'll get a Senate seat down the road for taking one for the team? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newfoundlander Posted September 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2015 New quarterly poll out today by CRA. Liberals are at 48%, PCs at 27%, and NDP at 25%. Undecideds also up. While the Liberals still dominate they've had a sizeable drop over the last year. In November 2014, they had the support of 60%. The NDP have been the beneficiary as they were at 10% then. This is also the first time since 2013 - following the NDP caucus revolt - that the Liberals have fallen below 50% in a poll conducted by CRA. Luckily for the their two main opponents are splitting the remainder of the vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpankyMcFarland Posted September 11, 2015 Report Share Posted September 11, 2015 New quarterly poll out today by CRA. Liberals are at 48%, PCs at 27%, and NDP at 25%. Undecideds also up. While the Liberals still dominate they've had a sizeable drop over the last year. In November 2014, they had the support of 60%. The NDP have been the beneficiary as they were at 10% then. This is also the first time since 2013 - following the NDP caucus revolt - that the Liberals have fallen below 50% in a poll conducted by CRA. Luckily for the their two main opponents are splitting the remainder of the vote. I wonder how often has the NDP share been that big in NL polling history? Does it affect the Liberals more? The Lib/PC divide here does not seem based on left/right issues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newfoundlander Posted September 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 11, 2015 I wonder how often has the NDP share been that big in NL polling history? Does it affect the Liberals more? The Lib/PC divide here does not seem based on left/right issues. They led in severals polls for a while and spent probably two years over 30%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newfoundlander Posted October 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2015 With the federal election over Newfoundland and Labrador is getting ready to kick off their provincial election. It's expected to be called in about 2 weeks. Liberals almost have a full slate. The seats they have left are in districts that they are either having trouble getting someone for - as they're taking on strong PCs - or they have big names that have been waiting to announce. The PCs have 16 candidates left to nominate. They had steadily been nominating two candidates a week for a while but that hasn't been happening recently. The NDP have been nominating candidates but the last I checked on their website their was no indication as to how many they had. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Hardner Posted October 21, 2015 Report Share Posted October 21, 2015 Thanks for the update. I looked around for election polls, but could only find federal ones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newfoundlander Posted October 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 21, 2015 Last poll was conducted in September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newfoundlander Posted October 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 Beth Crosbie - the daughter of John Crosbie - was nominated today to run for the PCs in the district of Virginia Waters Pleasantville. The St. John's district is the only one in the city without an incumbent. City councillor Bernard Davis is running for the Liberals and well known - and not for the right reasons - criminal lawyer Bob Buckingham is running for the NDP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newfoundlander Posted October 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2015 Ryan Cleary - the NDP MP who lost to Seamus O'Regan last week - is in talks with the Progressive Conservative Party and is expected to run in the district of Windsor Lake for them. Many speculated that Ryan may run provincially after his loss, they just figured it'd be as a Dipper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newfoundlander Posted October 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2015 Cleary announced today he's running for the PCs. Caused quite the stir among New Democrats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newfoundlander Posted November 2, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2015 The writ hasn't dropped but the Liberals just kicked off their election campaign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newfoundlander Posted November 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 Two polls have been released already in the Newfoundland and Labrador election, both with similar results. This one by Forum I find particularly interesting. It shows the Liberals have jumped since the federal election, they lead with 65%, the PCs are second with 21% and the NDP are third with 13%. What I found interesting about this poll is the demographic breakdowns and some of the underlying numbers. For instance in the 65 plus age group, PC support is 33% compared to 55% support for the Liberals. The Liberals obviously have a big lead but it narrows greatly. The most interesting thing appears to be Dwight Ball's support. While his approval rating is higher than his opponents and he is the preferred choice for premier, he trails his party significantly. Only 59% of people who said they will support the Liberal Party in the election approve of Dwight Ball's performance as leader. The rest either disapprove or have no opinion. 78% of Tories approve of Paul Davis and 68% of New Democrats support Earle McCurdy. As well, when asked who would make the best premier only 54% of Liberals chose Ball. 74% of PC supporters said Davis was the best choice for premier. The Tories are making this election about leadership and focusing on Paul Davis. This poll seems to make it clear why that's their strategy. While they might be out of the game when it comes to forming government it's quite possible they could close the gap considerably if Ball is unable to impress during this election. He's been leading the party for four years now and many still don't have an option of him. http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/cc34a487-0298-449e-8334-86690c3fbba3Newfoundland%20Issues%20News%20Release%20(2015%2011%2006)%20Forum%20Research.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Hardner Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 This election is today, and the CBC National News (radio) indicated today that the Liberal promises were objectively outlandish. (My paraphrase of their wording, but they clearly did say that the promises were extremely unrealistic). It was a strange thing to hear, especially on the CBC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Squid Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Apparently, Newfoundland has their largest budget deficit ever. The Conservatives have been in power 12 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vega Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 (edited) http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/11/newfoundland-and-labrador-election.html Good analysis and map forecast - Edited December 1, 2015 by Vega Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Posted December 2, 2015 Report Share Posted December 2, 2015 Apparently, Newfoundland has their largest budget deficit ever. The Conservatives have been in power 12 years. You need to distinguish between the Conservatives and the Progressive Conservatives, who are really liberals. You cannot get elected out east without promising lots and lots and lots and lots and lots and lots of goodies to the electorate. That's essentially all they care about. Who is offering the highest price for their vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overthere Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 You need to distinguish between the Conservatives and the Progressive Conservatives, who are really liberals. You cannot get elected out east without promising lots and lots and lots and lots and lots and lots of goodies to the electorate. That's essentially all they care about. Who is offering the highest price for their vote. Is it any different anywhere? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpankyMcFarland Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 You need to distinguish between the Conservatives and the Progressive Conservatives, who are really liberals.You cannot get elected out east without promising lots and lots and lots and lots and lots and lots of goodies to the electorate. That's essentially all they care about. Who is offering the highest price for their vote. That is a pan-Canadian problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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