Will there be a coup d'état in Russia?

[August1991]

This question may seem far-fetched (unlikely) but I would give it as much as a 5% probability (1 chance in 20).

There will not be a coup because of a popular uprising. That simply won't happen. A coup would occur if people in place, perhaps around Medvedev, decide that they have to get rid of Putin. It would be a coup similar to August 1991 except it would be a cabal to depose Putin and not Gorbachev.

Why would this occur?

I think Putin has crossed a line by killing thousands of eastern Ukrainians; fellow Slavs, many of Russian origin. It is one thing to destroy a Chechyn independent movement, or take Abkhazia, or return Crimea to mother Russia. It is another to kill innocent people in Donetsk or risk foreign travel because of Estonian border guards.

If it appears that Putin is willing to slaughter more people, fellow Russians, to satify his lunatic ego and prove his impotence, then I suspect that there will be a coup. If Putin is a mere psychopath who seeks self-aggrandissement, then there will be no coup. He'll back off.

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Many Russians (across the spectrum, left/right/whatever) thought that Putin brought "stability".

I was surprised when Putin announced that he was divorced.

[Bryan]

Putin’s Popularity Soars to 87% in the Face of Adversity

Russian President Vladimir Putin has enmeshed his nation in civil war in Ukraine, faces international sanctions for allegedly contributing to the downing of a commercial airliner last month, and has been targeted by a fresh round of financial sanctions from the West. But Russia loves him all the same. In fact, his popularity among his fellow countrymen appears to grow with each new controversy.

A new poll released this week by the Levada Center reports that the Russian President currently enjoys an approval rating of 87% — a 4-point jump since a similar survey was completed in May

http://time.com/3088126/putins-popularity-hits-87-russia/

Edited September 10, 2014 by Bryan

[August1991]

Putin’s Popularity Soars to 87% in the Face of Adversity

Bryan, your link dates from early August. The situation is different now.

As I say, returning Crimea to Russia is one thing; killing innocent eastern Ukrainians is another.

Is this about Russia? Or is it about Putin?

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At the same time, I agree with your point that general western sanctions on Russia won't achieve anything (if that's your point).

But restrictions on foreign travel, and the use of credit cards, would affect the "elite". And motivate the people around Medvedev if they felt that Putin was madly promoting Putin, and not Russia.

Edited September 10, 2014 by August1991

[Bryan]

The more the west/US/NATO gets upset with Putin, the more popular he is with his own people. Present situation included. Remember, they aren't watching the same news you are.

[On Guard for Thee]

Yeah and when I was in Iraq leading up to the US invasion Sadam had a 100% approval rating.

[GostHacked]

If we use some of the same language that nations of the west use for innocent civilians being killed, .... 'collateral damage'.

[Rue]

August I am of the firm believe the Russian crime syndicates run the country using the government to control their territories. Putin I believe is their puppet put in place to serve as their body guard.

I believe if he is to be removed it will only happen if he crosses the mob.

It is rumoured he is worth over 3 billion personally from the proceeds he gets for being on the take.

I do not believe for a second he's in danger. If the Russian crime syndicates are making money and they are, he's fine. If he does anything to

interrupt their revenue flow, then maybe.

He's a puppet. He's being allowed to play tough guy to keep his masses happy. They like his Russian John Wayne routine.

I mean it could come back to bite him in the ass but not over the Ukraine. Russians hate Ukraines. They always have. To keep Russians happy you just find them a punching bag to hate. It used to be Jews. Now its gays and Ukrainians.

If Putin does get carried away with his reincarnation of Hitler and Stalin act it might come back to haunt him yes.

The way to find out when he's gone to far is simple. To measure the true sentiments of Russians, follow the food lines. If they get too long, look out.

If there is a food crisis which is a possibility in the next few years, then I think he could be in trouble yes.

There are signs of impending food shortages in Russia so we have to wait to see how that plays out.

the point is there is no shortage of Putins in Russia to pop into the office if he's removed it won't be because of anything immoral he does, simply that he is negatively impacting on Russian mob exporting and importing.. that's my subjective opinion in response and I concede its only that-just my two cents for your good question..

Edited September 10, 2014 by Rue

[overthere]

5% probability sounds about right.

The Russian national pride has taken a savage beating for nearly a quarter century, and Putin is seen domestically as setting that right.

[August1991]

The more the west/US/NATO gets upset with Putin, the more popular he is with his own people. Present situation included. Remember, they aren't watching the same news you are.

I disagree. You imagine Russians (and I suspect other large groups of people) as a simple, kneejerk collective. It ain't so.

[August1991]

5% probability sounds about right.

The Russian national pride has taken a savage beating for nearly a quarter century, and Putin is seen domestically as setting that right.

I say the same to you as Bryan above.

[August1991]

August I am of the firm believe the Russian crime syndicates run the country using the government to control their territories.

I get your point.... Edited September 14, 2014 by August1991

[Big Guy]

5% probability sounds about right.

The Russian national pride has taken a savage beating for nearly a quarter century, and Putin is seen domestically as setting that right.

I agree. They are a proud and fierce culture. Russian history is as colorful and endearing as any others on earth. The opening and closing ceremonies during the Olympics reflected a cultured nation of art, science and education. After the fall of most of the Soviet empire there was some piling on by the West and a boisterous celebration of capitalism over socialism. Much of the population was humiliated and Putin has given them pride once more.

No matter what the Western pundits try to spin it as, the popularity numbers for Putin show the feelings of the Russian people.

Edited September 14, 2014 by Big Guy

[August1991]

It is rumoured he is worth over 3 billion personally from the proceeds he gets for being on the take.

Here, I strongly disagree. And I kinda stopped reading your post...

What is $3 billion to Putin? To Obama?

These guys don't care about money. Warren Buffet and Bill gates have ordinary passports. Putin and Obama travel abroad with diplomatic passports. (The Queen of England and the President of France have no passports at all!)

State power is unlike Money power.

Glimpse further your post, read...

[August1991]

The way to find out when he's gone to far is simple. To measure the true sentiments of Russians, follow the food lines. If they get too long, look out.

Disagree. Ordinary Russians will not decide whether Putin goes...

=====

Gawd I hate this editing software. Greg, please return to what we had...

Edited September 14, 2014 by August1991

[August1991]

... the point is there is no shortage of Putins in Russia to pop into the office if he's removed it won't be because of anything immoral he does, simply that he is negatively impacting on Russian mob exporting and importing.. that's my subjective opinion in response and I concede its only that-just my two cents for your good question.

You call it Russian mob. I call it Russian elite. If Putin makes it difficult for people around Medvedev to live their life, use their credit cards, travel abroad, import stuff - then there may be a coup d'état.

IOW, I think Putin will back off - unless he`s a megalomaniac who now believes that he`s God`s gift to the Russian people.

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I finally figured out how to quote another poster. Greg, please fix this.

Edited September 14, 2014 by August1991

[Bryan]

I disagree. You imagine Russians (and I suspect other large groups of people) as a simple, kneejerk collective. It ain't so.

Quite the opposite. I'm saying they are better informed than you are about what's going on over there.

[Solidarity]

Putin brought Russia back from the economic abyss of the early-mid 90's. I think people probably have some idea, but don't really 'get' how economically shattering and corrupt the transition was to a free-market in post soviet Russia. The average person got screwed mightily with the state selling off profitable industries to well connected robber barons at disgustingly corrupt prices (think 5% of the actual value... of multi-billion dollar companies). The result was crashing wealth and personal income, shortages of basic goods, ect.

Then Putin took over, curbed the power of the oligarchs, re-nationalized the oil industry and introduced other economic reforms. Maybe he had lucky timing, or maybe he made some really smart decisions, but I don't think it really matters.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/06/Russian_economy_since_fall_of_Soviet_Union.PNG

That's the kind of thing that resonates with people...

This all leads to my opinion... I'd say the possibility of a coup is virtually non-existent. Putin is as popular as he's ever been, and the state is as powerful as it has been in decades. Another point against a coup is Putin is a cagey ex-KGB operative, he probably has a lot of friends in the intelligence apparatus and would be more aware of any suspicious moves against him than someone else without his history.

[August1991]

Quite the opposite. I'm saying they are better informed than you are about what's going on over there.

Huh? Who are "they"?

Putin brought Russia back from the economic abyss of the early-mid 90's.....

Solidarity, you state a boiler plate, NYT, Western (whether Left or Right) viewpoint.

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I argue something different.

By killing several thousand fellow Slavs/Russians/eastern Ukrainians and provoking credit problems for friends of the regime, IMV, Putin has crossed a line and he will back off. Unless Putin has become a megalomaniac - in which case, there will be a coup to depose him.

Edited September 16, 2014 by August1991

[Bryan]

Huh? Who are "they"?

Russians.

[Solidarity]

Huh? Who are "they"?

Solidarity, you state a boiler plate, NYT, Western (whether Left or Right) viewpoint.

-----

I argue something different.

By killing several thousand fellow Slavs/Russians/eastern Ukrainians and provoking credit problems for friends of the regime, IMV, Putin has crossed a line and he will back off. Unless Putin has become a megalomaniac - in which case, there will be a coup to depose him.

The problem is your opinion is baseless. My 'boiler plate' is as such because its a well accepted fact, ie it's reality.

Where is any evidence of this powerful anti-Putin undercurrent or opposition? The Russians don't give a hoot if the ethnic Ukrainians die, just as they didn't give a hoot when Chechens or Georgians came into the firing line. I would argue the 'Slavic brotherhood' extends as far as the people identify themselves as Russian and generally pro-Russia pro-Moscow.

Edited September 16, 2014 by Solidarity

[Rue]

Putin is not a messiah. Enough Solidarity with your hero worship and naïve believe one man saved Russia.Its just a rehash of the oldest fable in the world.

Putin is no more Russia's saviour than Lenin, Stalin, Kruschev, Breshnev nor is he their saviour of economic ruin anymore that Hitler was Germany's messiah.

Your narrative is stale and old. Instead of Hitler or Stalin its now Putin. Why not stand and chant his name and salute to him. Hail Putin.

You sound like some foolish brainwashed boy at a Hitler youth camp.

Enough.

No one man does a phacking thing in Russia without the approval of its crime syndicates.

Your saviour is nothing more than a hired thug for the mob.

This brilliant economic recovery in Russia you talk about, you need to get a grip. Russia faces food shortages.

Russia is bankrupt. It can not afford the military expeditures he's forced on the country. He just sold away all his oil reserves to China at below market prices.

Look hard solidarity because Russia can not feed its people. It can enter all the skirmishes it wants to get its people focused away from its economic 's failures but the fact is Putin has no economic training. His a pathetic KGB thug. He's a two bit corrupt cop.

Go look at the economic performance of Russia and the disaster its economy is in before you hero worship this man.

Edited September 16, 2014 by Rue

[Bonam]

The majority of Russians love Putin. As for people "around Medvedev" organizing a coup... Putin is Medvedev's mentor and benefactor, and Medvedev is Putin's loyal padawan. Not gonna be any coup.

[Big Guy]

Putin is running about 84% popularity. Harper is at about 31%.

Looks to me that there would be a coup d'état in Canada before one in Russia.

[On Guard for Thee]

I wouldn't read a lot into the Russian polls vis a vis Canadian polls. People here are allowed to freely express an opinion. Although it's perhaps time to launch that coup next election time if we wish to keep that ability.

[Army Guy]

August I'm not sure where you got the idea that a few dead ukrainians would chage their mind set....in fact what did the people say about the thousands of Russian soldiers lost in chechen, or afghanistan and they where they own......what did they say about the thousands of chechenians that died , or go back a few years into Russian history, when they starved to death millions of ukrainians....

I think the people do as they are told, they believe what they are told, they have enough to think about in their own lives....