Conservatives back on top? Voters starting to pay attention.

[Keepitsimple]

Since April 14, 2013 — the day Justin Trudeau won the Liberal leadership — it seems that all the opinion polls have essentially said the same thing: 'The Liberals are beating the Conservatives.'

It's true: In a recent Globe and Mail article, polling analyst Eric Grenier deduced that in the 48 polls conducted since Trudeau became leader, the Liberals have either led or have been tied for the lead in all but two of them.

[ Related: Justin Trudeau’s first year as Liberal leader a good one ]

That's why the latest poll from Angus Reid is somewhat newsworthy.

The survey, released on Tuesday, has the Harper Conservatives ahead of the Liberals and NDP both in terms of 'eligible voters' and 'likely voters.'

Eligible Voters Likely Voters

Conservatives 32% 34%

Liberals 30% 29%

NDP 26% 27%

The regional numbers are just as astonishing, especially the shifting political landscape in the provinces of British Columbia and Ontario.

.........................

Link: https://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canada-politics/harper-conservatives-vault-top-opinion-poll-192343629.html

Edited April 24, 2014 by Keepitsimple

[On Guard for Thee]

Link: https://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canada-politics/harper-conservatives-vault-top-opinion-poll-192343629.html

Of course the eligable voter numbers will change if we allow the C23 to go through.

[bleeding heart]

"Voters starting to pay attention"..... That's a sly one.

[Bryan]

Of course the eligable voter numbers will change if we allow the C23 to go through.

The same number of people will be eligible. The difference is, those who aren't eligible might actually get turned away for once.

[cybercoma]

The same number of people will be eligible. The difference is, those who aren't eligible might actually get turned away for once.

Nothing but lies out of you. Show us any reliable and valid study that indicates ineligible voters are casting ballots. We can't even get people who are supposed to vote to the ballot boxes. You can't actually believe the stuff you post, do you?

[Bryan]

Nothing but lies out of you.

Were you looking in the mirror when you posted that?

[cybercoma]

You've been asked repeatedly to demonstrate that there has been any kind of voter fraud that would require more restrictive voting practices. You've never backed up that claim because you can't. There is no support for that argument whatsoever. So when you keep repeating statements that you can't support, I'm going to start just calling it what it is. Lies.

[bleeding heart]

It certainly seems to be the case that lack of voting is a far bigger problem than voter fraud....if "widely agreed-upon issue" can be seen as bigger than "no evidence of any issue," which I think it can.

[WWWTT]

Link: https://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canada-politics/harper-conservatives-vault-top-opinion-poll-192343629.html

LOL!

Voters are paying attention?

You mean an extra 3-4% of swing pollsters have jumped ship from the liberals to the conservatives and you're so excited you can't contain yourself to the point you had to start a thread about it?

LOL!

WWWTT

[WWWTT]

It certainly seems to be the case that lack of voting is a far bigger problem than voter fraud....if "widely agreed-upon issue" can be seen as bigger than "no evidence of any issue," which I think it can.

How about those annoying robo calls?

Nothing going on there, move along folks!

WWWTT

[bleeding heart]

Well, maybe we'll someday see how the robocalls issue plays out, and maybe we won't.

I was referring to the implied and baseless faux-outrage by Conservative supporters that voting fraud (presumably by such fringe groups as women, minorities, the poor, and "the left"....the majority of the population, in other words) is a rampant issue.

[cindi]

Did you read the news this morning. Robocalls probe finds “no reasonable grounds” for charges.

[waldo]

Did you read the news this morning. Robocalls probe finds “no reasonable grounds” for charges.

uhhh... see Guelph and the upcoming Sona trial. Care to offer your "reasonable grounds" assessment on whether anyone outside Guelph was aware the Conservative Party CIMS database was accessed in this regard... and by who? If you're going to suggest the CIMS db was not compromised in this regard, then where was the data sourced?

as for the rest of Canada (and the Elections Canada 'ruling' you speak of), apparently... "insufficient evidence... intent could not be established"! Of course, it begs the question as to the intent behind privately funded calls, purporting to be from Elections Canada, directing people to non-existent polling stations? Care to offer your "reasonable grounds" assessment on that related intent?

as announced by Yves Cote, the commissioner of Elections Canada:

"Ultimately, investigators have been able to determine that incorrect poll locations were provided to some electors, and that some nuisance calls occurred," the report into the calls said.

"However, the evidence does not establish that calls were made with the intention of preventing or attempting to prevent an elector from voting, or for the purpose of inducing an elector by some pretence or contrivance to vote or not vote, or to vote or not vote for a particular candidate."

"This proof of intent is necessary for the commissioner to consider recommending to the Director of Public Prosecutions that a prosecution under the Act be initiated," the report said.

oh wait! Isn't that the same Election's Canada Yves Cote who, just weeks ago in commenting on the Harper Conservative "Unfair Elections Act", called for his position to be able to hold the power to compel witnesses to provide testimony.

The chief elections investigator refused to discuss any specific cases, including the ongoing investigation into fraudulent robocalls in the 2011 election, but said unco-operative witnesses have been a real issue in his 20 months on the job.

"There have indeed been cases -- a number of them -- where in the performance of our investigative powers we have come across people who had information relevant to our investigations who simply refused to talk to us," said Cote.

but hey, no worries... Harper Conservative Minister of State for Democratic Reform, Pierre Poilievre is hot on the case... working with Bill C-23 to ensure Elections Canada is gutted and has no/additional power whatsoever!

[Boges]

So a thread about the CPC's poll numbers turn into the Fair Election Act thread.

But whatever, I'll play ball.

I'm curious if anyone was ever checking to see if people were committing voter fraud? If no one is checking to see if that person vouching for the other person is telling the truth than we can plausibly deny that voter fraud doesn't exist.

Regardless the idea that anyone can vote in any riding as long as someone can vouch that they live there, seems wrong to many people.

Regarding the CPCs number. JT hasn't said anything that would make sensible people want to vote for him short of talking about MJ legalization. He's got more legit gaffe's then concrete policy announcements.

[cindi]

According to my reading and this link is one of them, Guelph is troublesome of course. This appears to have been a left wing driven fiasco. We spent a lot to establish that the robocall bogyman was a phantom of overactive imaginations. 96% of communications were from Lead Now expressing dissatisfaction with inappropriate calls. They were not from people who actually received the calls. Other than Guelph where something did happen, I am satisfied with this finding.

Elections Canada has issued a report on its investigation into deceptive calls in the last election, concluding that “the evidence gathered in the investigation does not lend support to the existence of a conspiracy or conspiracies to interfere with the voting process.”

The investigation did find evidence that “that incorrect poll locations were provided to some electors, and that some nuisance calls occurred,” but that does not show that the calls were made to try to prevent people from voting, according to Yves Cote, the Commissioner of Canada Elections.

As a result, no charges will be laid, beyond those in Guelph, Ont., where a former Conservative staffer faces trial this summer in relation to a robocall that sent hundreds of voters to the wrong polling station.

At a lunchtime speech in Ottawa on Thursday, Pierre Poilievre, the Minister for Democratic Reform, welcomed the report, saying that it confirmed that the party ran a fair and ethical campaign.

Conservative Party spokesman Cory Hann lauded the report and said it should put questions to rest.

“For the last two years the opposition parties have made unsubstantiated allegations which have now been proven to be false by elections Canada,”

http://o.canada.com/news/robocalls-report-finds-no-evidence-of-conspiracy-to-deceive-voters-beyond-guelph/

Sorry, post #10 referred to robo calls.

Edited April 24, 2014 by cindi

[cindi]

As far as vouching goes, it is not allowed in Ontario and other provinces so should we be protesting to Elections Ontario about this. Why do some provinces disallow vouching, they must have their reasons for it. If it is good for Ontario and other provinces then I see no problem with it federally.

[waldo]

So a thread about the CPC's poll numbers turn into the Fair Election Act thread.

there were a number of posts from multiple members drawing reference to the robocalls issue... I responded in kind, I responded directly to the most recent post in that robocalls regard. Your content, without regard to the multiple times related robocalls references, is a direct turn of the thread referencing the Harper Conservatives "Unfair Elections Act", voter fraud, vouching, etc. Was this your intent?

let me take care of your concern... at least with regard to my single post... I'll find a related robocalls thread and copy it in. I trust you will receive like compliance from the other members who 'dared' to speak of robocalls in this thread touting "Conservatives Back on Top - Voters Starting to Pay Attention".

[Boges]

I didn't single out any specific poster.

I just noticed the tone of the thread had changed into tackling things that there are already fairly large threads already discussing those issues.

I would imagine the intent of this thread is to discuss why the CPC have seen an uptick in poll number. Is it because they've done a better job or is it because JT is acting more like a celebrity than a leader of a political party.

[waldo]

I didn't single out any specific poster.

I just noticed the tone of the thread had changed into tackling things that there are already fairly large threads already discussing those issues.

I would imagine the intent of this thread is to discuss why the CPC have seen an uptick in poll number. Is it because they've done a better job or is it because JT is acting more like a celebrity than a leader of a political party.

so you decided to 'double-down' on your raised concern by speaking to vouching/voter fraud! Allrightee. As for your imagining the intent of the thread, other than "raised excitement over a single poll, an outlier poll", the OP fails to provide intent behind the thread... although the title does speak to a presumed explanation; i.e., "Voters are starting to pay attention"!

[bleeding heart]

Well, sure, the logic is tautologically perfect.

Clearly, in the last Federal election, the "voters were finally paying attention."

The election before that...they were somewhat paying attention, but not enough attention.

Lately, they plainly haven't been "paying attention" (and there's that problem of "women thinking with their vaginas," a sober political analysis to be sure).

But now, thanks to a possible "uptick," it would appear they're "paying attention" again.

It's not a partisan argument: it's plain observation.

[Boges]

It was just commentary, not a call to action to have this thread moderated or anything. I did feel the need to comment on the sentiment that removing vouching is fixing a problem that doesn't exist.

I do think people need take a look at JT's recent behaviour though. The thread that PIK frequently updates with more news stories about questionable behaviour on the part of JT rarely sees much pushback from anyone defending him. So I'd assume his recent behaviour is somewhat indefensible.

Edited April 24, 2014 by Boges

[waldo]

Lately, they plainly haven't been "paying attention" (and there's that problem of "women thinking with their vaginas," a sober political analysis to be sure).

you made me look! How did I miss this post?

But the chicks will vote with thier vaginas and we will be stuck with him.

clearly, there is a lot of pent-up excitement behind this thread!!!

[Keepitsimple]

And yes - it was my intention to bring focus to the fact that after a year of Liberals leading polls and Conservatives doing miserable, there appears to be a fairly abrupt turnaround. The article speculates on some of the reasoning - and I personally think that Canadians are starting to pay more attention to both Harper and Trudeau. Other than the poll being an outlier, I thought it might generate some opinions - and perhaps some ideas on what tactics any of the parties might use as things move forward.

[On Guard for Thee]

Link: https://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canada-politics/harper-conservatives-vault-top-opinion-poll-192343629.html

The latest 308 poll (2 days ago) says otherwise.

[normanchateau]

Latest Forum Research results of polling done April 28th and 29th:

Liberals 39%, Conservatives 30%, NDP 20%

Source: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/05/02/conservative_attack_ads_against_trudeau_not_working_poll.html

To quote Keepitsimple: "...Canadians are starting to pay more attention to both Harper and Trudeau."