Quebec General Election 2014

[August1991]

Date? Le 14 avril.

Marois/the PQ will win a majority.

And Harper will lose his.

Edited February 21, 2014 by August1991

[Boges]

Election got called today.

[August1991]

And I was off by a week in my prediction. (So you can take my other predictions as being as valuable as a grain of salt.)

-----

I'm going to stay with my prediction of a majority PQ government. Why? First, seats in the 125 National Assembly are allocated with a bias to rural francophone ridings. The PQ will win a majority of seats but may receive fewer votes than the PLQ - as happened in 1998. Second, the Charter will split enough votes from the CAQ/Creditiste/Beauce and put them into teh PQ column. Third, what the PQ bleeds to the QS will not matter. Fourth, too many (francophone, outside Montreal) voters still do not have the tolerance level to vote Liberal.

Does this mean voters in Quebec want a referendum? Definitely not. They just want a different party in power than the Liberals. In a normal democratic society, this would be a change of government.

====

The guy to watch is Jean-François Lisée. He's Karl Rove mixed with Henry Kissinger and a touch of Joseph Goebbels. He has an ego requiring its own postal code. Like Putin, Lisée takes an opponent's position and turns it back on the opponent.

And.. il veut un pays!

So, what happens after April 7? It will be the secular charter/wedge politics on steroids as preparation for the winning conditions of a referendum. Given the experience of 1980 and 1995, I think that it's understood that oblique political strategies or legally-worded questions are not the right approach. To make Quebec an independent country requires a wedge issue and raw nationalism. "If you don't vote yes, you are condemning your children to eternal hell." Or as George Bush Jnr said: "You are either with us, or the terrorists."

This may get ugly.

Edited March 6, 2014 by August1991

[The_Squid]

Quebec is not going anywhere... They don't have the demographics to separate. They'll need to chase away more people before that happens, and it probably won't ever happen. Their silly divisive politics are so 1968...

People in BC really don't care who wins elections in Quebec... Sometimes it's fun to watch the train wreck.

[August1991]

Quebec is not going anywhere... They don't have the demographics to separate. They'll need to chase away more people before that happens, and it probably won't ever happen. Their silly divisive politics are so 1968...

People in BC really don't care who wins elections in Quebec... Sometimes it's fun to watch the train wreck.

Precisely.

This may get ugly.

[August1991]

How ugly?

Pierre-Karl Péladeau, owner of the Quebec-bashing, right-wing Sun News network, is now a candidate for the PQ.

Guess why he hired these Sun writers? eg. Eric Duhaime and Ezra Levant. (Well, it would be too obvious to say that he wanted to create animosity in Canada's two linguistic communitities and foster Quebec independance.)

I frankly think that following his father, he saw a niche and sought to exploit it. Mistakenly, the son saw the niche in political terms - while his father always saw a niche in terms of money.

IOW, Péladeau Jnr is nothing like his father - except maybe the ego. Pierre-Karl is more like Belinda Stronach. More ego than talent. (In addition, Pierre-Karl knows all about his own sister.)

======

Canada and Quebec, the world in general, have a mixed history of business people going into politics. Paul Martin, Berlusconi, Romney. Belinda Stronach. Paul Desmarais made Paul Martin but Desmarais, nor his kids, never chose to go into politics. Neither, to my knowledge, did any of the Bronfmans or Eatons or Westons.

In the US, there is no President Carnegie - but there is a Vice-President Rockefeller.

====

Lastly, I am astonished about what this says about Quebec Inc. Pauline Marois is correct: From her perspective (and her husband's), Quebec is a small world.

In Trudeau Snr terms, Quebec society has no counterweights now. The federal government is absent. In American/Newtonian terms, there is no counterveiling force.

Edited March 11, 2014 by August1991

[Boges]

As a supporter of Sun Media, I do find this whole thing bizarre.

They've made it very clear that the editorial opinion of Sun Media won't change, but if dude wins how could it not?

Is Marois being pragmatic or daft by allowing a guy into her team who owns publications that depict her with a Chicken on her head in editorial cartoons?

[Argus]

Quebec politics is like a six hour movie with a convoluted plot you don't care about, starring people without talent. Adding Peladeau to the plot just makes it more head-shakingly stupid. All the characters are unpleasant and nobody cares if they live or die.

Quebec has numerous issues, but the election will be on whether those dirty minorities wear funny hats that offend the pure wool set. Marois has taken a leaf from Goebbels in finding the 'other' to unite everyone against -- on her side, of course.

[Boges]

Comparing Quebec to the Nazis is always a great way to make a point.

[g_bambino]

The federal government is absent. In American/Newtonian terms, there is no counterveiling force.

Perhaps that's a good thing. Employing a countervailing force hasn't been entirely successful, so far; in fact, it could be seen to have simply fed the force it's meant to counter.

[Argus]

Comparing Quebec to the Nazis is always a great way to make a point.

Is there something innacurate about the comparison? The National Socialist party blamed Jews as a distraction and to get people's nationalist emotions stirred up. The PQ is blaming religious minorities for precisely the same reason.

[Boges]

Is there something innacurate about the comparison? The National Socialist party blamed Jews as a distraction and to get people's nationalist emotions stirred up. The PQ is blaming religious minorities for precisely the same reason.

Both are cases of grotesque xenophobia but the PQ aren't passing laws making it impossible for non-francophones to make a living.

[jbg]

Comparing Quebec to the Nazis is always a great way to make a point.

It's racial politics. Hopefully without the deadly aftermath. In many ways the Nazis and the Bolsheviks took a leaf from the French Revolution. Quebec is no stranger to milder versions of syndrome of tyranny of the majority.

Edited March 12, 2014 by jbg

[jbg]

Both are cases of grotesque xenophobia but the PQ aren't passing laws making it impossible for non-francophones to make a living.

The signage laws? The requirements to do business in French? You are surely joking.

[Boges]

The signage laws? The requirements to do business in French? You are surely joking.

I'm on the record as to saying that behaviour is "tryanical" but you know what they say about calling people Nazis.

If everyone is Hitler, then no one is Hitler.

[Smallc]

HITLER!!!!!!!!

[Keepitsimple]

Separation is based in large part on ignorance. The old guard may be dying off but Quebec is still largely rural with a uni-lingual constituency that doesn't care about the rest on Canada and doesn't understand the economic and cultural realities of separation - especially as things play our over the next 25 years:

1) They'd immediately be accountable for their total debt position with no handouts from the ROC.

2) Their credit rating would not have the "backing" on the ROC and would likely take a major hit - driving debt up even more.

3) Canada would not longer have to honour "official bilingualism". No more mandatory French in government jobs. No need for bilingual roadsigns and package labelling.

4) Quebec would be an island of French inside North America - there would ultimately be pressure to learn English to deal with the ROC and create their own trade with the US - making English the de-facto language of business.

In short - while inside Canada, language and culture can be protected and somewhat insulated with the ongoing help of the ROC. Outside Canada, the realities of the world would put immediate pressure on language and culture.

What these blockheads fail to recognize is that it is the ROC that is protecting Quebec's language and culture......and that amounts to sheer ignorance.

[Argus]

Both are cases of grotesque xenophobia but the PQ aren't passing laws making it impossible for non-francophones to make a living.

They don't have that power. And I wasn't commenting on their future desires but on why they suddenly raised up this 'quebec values' thing out of the blue. They did it specifically to demonize religious minorities and ride a wave of nationalist (racist) fervour into power. It's not different, as a tactic, than what the Nazid did when they were climbing to power.

[Topaz]

Let's say for debate the PQ gets a majority, maybe they get help form Pierre Poutine, and she starts down the road to separation, do you think there would be civil war? Would corporation start to leave and would she try to put tolls on ships in the St .Lawrence, would Quebec be able to receive CPP or other government benefits, many questions.

[carepov]

Separation is based in large part on ignorance. The old guard may be dying off but Quebec is still largely rural with a uni-lingual constituency that doesn't care about the rest on Canada and doesn't understand the economic and cultural realities of separation - especially as things play our over the next 25 years:

1) They'd immediately be accountable for their total debt position with no handouts from the ROC.

2) Their credit rating would not have the "backing" on the ROC and would likely take a major hit - driving debt up even more.

3) Canada would not longer have to honour "official bilingualism". No more mandatory French in government jobs. No need for bilingual roadsigns and package labelling.

4) Quebec would be an island of French inside North America - there would ultimately be pressure to learn English to deal with the ROC and create their own trade with the US - making English the de-facto language of business.

In short - while inside Canada, language and culture can be protected and somewhat insulated with the ongoing help of the ROC. Outside Canada, the realities of the world would put immediate pressure on language and culture.

What these blockheads fail to recognize is that it is the ROC that is protecting Quebec's language and culture......and that amounts to sheer ignorance.

I am not in favour of separation but I respect the views of separatists and am strongly against your calling them "ignorant blockheads".

You state "Quebec is still largely rural", yet it is 81 % Urban http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/demo62f-eng.htm why would you say that?

If it were to separate, there is no reason to believe that life in Quebec would be significantly different than what it is today. For example why would the credit rating of the "nation of Quebec" be any different than the current credit rating of the Province of Quebec? Economic standards of living would likely decline in Quebec but not by much.

[TimG]

Economic standards of living would likely decline in Quebec but not by much.

How much is 'not by much'? Is a 10% drop large or small? That was the drop after the 2008 crisis. I would call that large if it is a permanent shift.

The problem with the separatist argument is 'we have to leave Canada because we can't negotiate a confederation with the other partners that welike' but Quebec can't leave Canada unless it negotiates a deal with those same partners. That makes it delusional to believe that negotiating a deal will be any easier - especially since there will be a lot of pressure to allow parts of Quebec to secede from Quebec (I would be very surprised if the Cree did not take the opportunity to create their own autonomous territory that is loosely associated with either Quebec and Canada depending on who offers the best deal).

Edited March 12, 2014 by TimG

[g_bambino]

I am not in favour of separation but I respect the views of separatists and am strongly against your calling them "ignorant blockheads".

Perhaps he meant the people leading the separatist charge, the ones who think real Quebecers are only the Catholic (even if only "traditionally"), francophone, old stock ones, the ones trying to appeal to that group with "values charters" and invasive language laws.

If it were to separate, there is no reason to believe that life in Quebec would be significantly different than what it is today. For example why would the credit rating of the "nation of Quebec" be any different than the current credit rating of the Province of Quebec?

Because the "nation of Quebec" would no longer have the economic benefit of transfer and equalisation payments. The Quebec economy is barely holding on as it is.

[g_bambino]

That makes it delusional to believe that negotiating a deal will be any easier - especially since there will be a lot of pressure to allow parts of Quebec to secede from Quebec (I would be very surprised if the Cree did not take the opportunity to create their own autonomous territory that is loosely associated with either Quebec and Canada depending on who offers the best deal).

It's not a matter of parts of Quebec seceding from Quebec, it's that the Northeastern Quebec Agreement specifies that certain territories inhabited by First Nations are not within the legislative jurisdiction of Quebec. Simply put, if Quebec declares independence, those lands won't go with it. If Quebec negotiates independence, it will have to negotiate for those lands if it wants them. Of course, the First Nations living in those areas want to go it on their own, they can try to do so, but, that's a matter between them and the federal Crown.

[Keepitsimple]

I am not in favour of separation but I respect the views of separatists and am strongly against your calling them "ignorant blockheads".

You state "Quebec is still largely rural", yet it is 81 % Urban http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/demo62f-eng.htm why would you say that?

If it were to separate, there is no reason to believe that life in Quebec would be significantly different than what it is today. For example why would the credit rating of the "nation of Quebec" be any different than the current credit rating of the Province of Quebec? Economic standards of living would likely decline in Quebec but not by much.

Couple of things:

1) The Anglophone population is almost exclusively centered in and around Montreal,Quebec City and the Eastern Townships - outside that is almost exclusively Francophone. Your Statscan Link qualifies Urban as anyone living in or around a population center of 1000 or more.....that's pretty rural to most people. Point is - the vast majority of these areas are PQ strongholds.

2) Credit Rating/Economy - we're each entitled to our opinion but credit rating agencies have no choice but to downgrade Quebec's credit rating. It's exactly like removing a co-signer from a loan.

3) As for the living standard - the credit rating is one problem. Another is the elimination of Transfer Payments - always subject to interpretation but at least $7 billion annually and probably a lot more. Another is that 32% of the Federal Civil Service is Francophone - mostly living in Quebec. Over time - if not immediately, those jobs will be either eliminated - or given to people living in Canada.

4) There will be additional ongoing costs in "running a country" - and there won't be any compensating revenue. Some sort of military, border security, passports and untold bureaucracy needs, etc.

As for calling them Blockheads......an old phrase associated with the Bloq Quebecois but pretty appropriate. Leave everyone in the dark - all roses. Think again.

[TimG]

It's not a matter of parts of Quebec seceding from Quebec, it's that the Northeastern Quebec Agreement specifies that certain territories inhabited by First Nations are not within the legislative jurisdiction of Quebec.

Separatists have already made it clear that they don't care about the law and the only question is whether they think they can grab land without being condemned as the villains. That is where the reactions of people on the ground matter. If people in Montreal simply shrug and accept it then Canada has no leverage. The same is if the Cree choose to stay with Quebec because they are given a sweetheart deal (to be honest, the Cree could decide that they trust the separatists more than the feds and Canada should not assume they would want to stay). Edited March 12, 2014 by TimG