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Less than half register for liberal leadership vote!


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Of the 300 000 who signed up to vote in the liberal leadersip finale,only 117 000 have registered (40%)

Where the age is known,59% are over 50.13% are from 25 to 34,19% 35 to 49 and 8% are under 25.

46% of the total are from Ontario and only 11% are from Quebec.

To me,these numbers are proof that the liberals are starting to deflate.

Also that much of their intitial support will fade away very fast and is not reliable.

If my assumption is true,then the liberals real numbers put them at arount 18-20% support.

And when Justin starts to really answer the questions??????

Any thoughts as to what registration numbers mean?

WWWTT

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The question becomes "does the demographics of who is willing to pay their $10* or whatever to join the Liberals and vote reflect the general population"?

* What my Conservative membership cost when I joined in order to try to defeat Rob Ander's nomination bid two elections ago.

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Liberals will vote, but they are far less likely to put time or money into the process. If there's so much as a survey, the participation drops off a cliff. Losing the corporate donations is what really hurt them the most, because they didn't HAVE TO connect with grassroots politics before. They had the money and logistical support, all they needed was the actual votes. It's just not enough anymore.

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Any thoughts as to what registration numbers mean?

WWWTT

Out of 117,000 how many people actually paid into membership? Even the NDP manage to get around 129,000 card carrying members by the time the ballot was cast for the new leader.

Beside, the liberal leadership race ended before it even started when Justin announced his intention to run for leadership. So there wasn't any real reason to sign up to support what already been predetermined.

I think the white smoke will appear after the first round with Trudeau being the obvious winner.

Edited by Sleipnir
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You know not only party members vote for parties.

Why register to vote in a vote where the outcome is predetermined?


Its like an Saddam Hussien era Iraqi election.

Is findlay going to come from behind?

Bear in mind however that polls are not the registered voters so anything can happen, but I dunno, how do you think it will end up?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Party_of_Canada_leadership_election,_2013

She even says that Canada needs strong leadership. I bet Trudeau could bench more than her.

I think if anything this race may increase the likelyhood of leadership contenders to gain some notice and increase their seat winning potential.

Edited by shortlived
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I find two points interesting.The first is the low Quebec interest.

Reason is because the conservatives believe the liberal growth will come at the NDP expense.

I do not think low Quebec interest will translate in high Quebec liberal voter turn out needed to take support away from the NDP

Turns out the strongest place for the liberals are in Ontario.But Ontario is conservative territory???

The other point would be the age of most registered to vote.50 and above.

It's in my opinion that with the higher age bracket and location,the conservative base will erode in Ontario.

WWWTT

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There have been huge issues with the actual registration

Yes there were reports of multiple people signing up under the same email, one case there were 150 individuals signing up under the same email. I'm shocked (well maybe that not shocked) that the Liberals have not been prepared for these kind of problems.

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Of the 300 000 who signed up to vote in the liberal leadersip finale,only 117 000 have registered (40%)

Where the age is known,59% are over 50.13% are from 25 to 34,19% 35 to 49 and 8% are under 25.

46% of the total are from Ontario and only 11% are from Quebec.

To me,these numbers are proof that the liberals are starting to deflate.

Also that much of their intitial support will fade away very fast and is not reliable.

If my assumption is true,then the liberals real numbers put them at arount 18-20% support.

And when Justin starts to really answer the questions??????

Any thoughts as to what registration numbers mean?

WWWTT

There was never 300,000 people it was always a lie. BTW there are only 117,000 Liberals (including those who didn't pay) while the NDP had 130,000 members that eligible to vote in their leadership.

Edited by punked
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Yes and out of those 130 000 NDP members,we had to pay around $300-350!

When you have to pay that kind of money,a lot of wind bags are no where to be found.So it is safe to say that the NDP support is strong,focused and is more than willing to stick it out to help!

Just goes to show how weak the liberal support really is.

Part of the reason I started this thread is to highlight the strong possibility that the liberals may find themselves,after a year or so,back in third place and slipping again.

WWWTT

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Part of the reason I started this thread is to highlight the strong possibility that the liberals may find themselves,after a year or so,back in third place and slipping again.

I actually believe that the shrinking of the Liberal party is part of a global pattern of shrinking liberal parties around the world - widening the chasm between left and right wing parties. All this because of the world shrinking due to social media.

I could elaborate much more on this, but it would required a new thread.

Edited by Sleipnir
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No this is not the case, the liberals had as much support as the conservatives, it just didn't translate into seats. IMO caused by vote splitting between the NDP and Liberals, due to NDP surge drawing from the left of the liberal party. There are more left leaning Canadians than right leaning, but the liberals tend to be near right center and left drawing a middle ground, while the NDP tends to appear left with large amounts of labour support. Bear in mind the liberal success requires drawing both form the right and the left, and they have failed to heavily draw from the right in part to Stephane Dion who clearly sat to the left. Ignatieff, was more right leaning but he was faced with the upsurge on the left meaning they lost part of the left. Trudeau I think, if he wins the leadership, due to his backers, may be able to unite the left and right. However it should be a very interesting election in 2015 (my gosh -2015 already I can remember the new millenium like yesterday),

It is still two years off, this next year is the pretty much the last round before election year, and it is clear the press is painting this summer as the Election Team with leaders in place, and a new cabinet by the CPC to address the impending propaganda war. Tensions should steadily increase between this coming fall and the following one... should things get that far.... But lo it seems we are still half a year off before election fever starts its upward rise on the thermometer.

I don't really see the party as having shifted that much from their position about 2004, ten years ago, the objectives and position seems much the same in terms of policy intentions. The NDP seems to have watered down a tiny bit, and the conservatives have steadily been radicalizing, but at the same time not delivering, except on specific issues such as Americanization, and Public Security and Justice Measures so as to clampdown and facilitate Alberta's oil sands, which growth is on the line with XL somewhat. Although by the end of this year the Party over the last 10 year years will have added 200 Billion to the pubic debt erasing the liberal debt downpayments paid with the GST. It sems possible debt to GDP ratio could climb over 80% by 2015.

They have a lot of promises to fullfill over the next two years and they are dragging out reforms they promised so it looks like they are doing things when infact they have been sitting on their hands on their legislative agenda. It wont be done of course because of court delays because they waited too long, probably by design. but heck they need something for the next election right..

Edited by shortlived
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Worse, they’re not savvy young prospects who can be tapped as the coming generation of the Liberal Party. Uh, no. An analysis of the ones who bothered to register found about half live in Ontario, mostly in urban areas, and 60% are over 50. So there’s your eager new Liberal fan base: Ontario baby-boomers who are closing in on retirement. According to Canadian Press, only eight per cent are under age 25, and 13 per cent are between 25 and 34. In other words it’s the same small urban-based central-Canadians who have stuck with the party until now. Only 11 per cent of registrants are from Quebec, and 13 per cent from B.C. Given that hopes of expanding the base is supposed to be Trudeau’s big attraction, it’s not a promising scenario. The Liberal party, to all intents and purposes, has become Toronto Boomers for Justin. Try and sell that west of Windsor.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/03/22/kelly-mcparland-liberal-leadership-race-comes-down-to-toronto-boomers-for-justin/

Maybe things are not as rosy as people suspected.

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No this is not the case, the liberals had as much support as the conservatives, it just didn't translate into seats. IMO caused by vote splitting between the NDP and Liberals, due to NDP surge drawing from the left of the liberal party. There are more left leaning Canadians than right leaning, but the liberals tend to be near right center and left drawing a middle ground, while the NDP tends to appear left with large amounts of labour support. Bear in mind the liberal success requires drawing both form the right and the left, and they have failed to heavily draw from the right in part to Stephane Dion who clearly sat to the left. Ignatieff, was more right leaning but he was faced with the upsurge on the left meaning they lost part of the left. Trudeau I think, if he wins the leadership, due to his backers, may be able to unite the left and right. However it should be a very interesting election in 2015 (my gosh -2015 already I can remember the new millenium like yesterday),

Can I just stop you right here and ask if there any first world nations that have a "Liberal" party left. Almost every country is split between left wing labour parties and right wing conservative parties. There is no Liberal vote left in the world and Canada is going through a transition other countries made 60 years ago. Welcome to the future where brokerage parties that promise to be all things to all people are done because they never deliver to any of us.

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Can I just stop you right here and ask if there any first world nations that have a "Liberal" party left. Almost every country is split between left wing labour parties and right wing conservative parties. There is no Liberal vote left in the world and Canada is going through a transition other countries made 60 years ago. Welcome to the future where brokerage parties that promise to be all things to all people are done because they never deliver to any of us.

Interesting point, punked. I have noticed that in some countries also, but then when I look at many European countries, Israel, India and on and on where there are sometimes more than 10 parties I have to wonder. Even in the UK it is currently a coalition government.

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Interesting point, punked. I have noticed that in some countries also, but then when I look at many European countries, Israel, India and on and on where there are sometimes more than 10 parties I have to wonder. Even in the UK it is currently a coalition government.

Yah but those collations are still labour progressive parties and conservatives parties. The Brokerage party is dead everywhere in the world except Canada.

Edited by punked
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Can I just stop you right here and ask if there any first world nations that have a "Liberal" party left. Almost every country is split between left wing labour parties and right wing conservative parties. There is no Liberal vote left in the world and Canada is going through a transition other countries made 60 years ago. Welcome to the future where brokerage parties that promise to be all things to all people are done because they never deliver to any of us.

I think your impression of socialist international vs. fascist international is a bit misleading.

there are lots of middle of the road parties, the middle of the road isn't even the middle in Canada compared to the US. Total nonsense coming out of you.

The fact the EU has consolidated into many blocks is representative and no the EU is not scored between the far right and the far left. Sorry try again.

The democrats are as close to the middle of the road as you can get in the US, same goes around the world. Total nonsense.

As you can see the left vs right is just not a sane argument and only far left and far right parties seem to push this idea. Its just another left vs. right, bolshevism vs fascism type argument... the world doesn't work that way that is a 50 year dated mentality, that was engineered for the cold war.

it simply doesn't represent reality

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_groups_of_the_European_Parliament

Liberals like in Canada have 30-40% support in Europe.

I'm really not sure how to define US big 2... I think democrats are more center of the road, but republicans are more liberal, well atleast before 2001, when they became ultranationalists.

by the way the people's party in the EU is not left wing, it is centrist. The term used is often social democrats which is a type of liberal.

Centrist parties control ~70% of European Parliament.

Edited by shortlived
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I think your impression of socialist international vs. fascist international is a bit misleading.

there are lots of middle of the road parties, the middle of the road isn't even the middle in Canada compared to the US. Total nonsense coming out of you.

The fact the EU has consolidated into many blocks is representative and no the EU is not scored between the far right and the far left. Sorry try again.

The democrats are as close to the middle of the road as you can get in the US, same goes around the world. Total nonsense.

As you can see the left vs right is just not a sane argument and only far left and far right parties seem to push this idea. Its just another left vs. right, bolshevism vs fascism type argument... the world doesn't work that way that is a 50 year dated mentality, that was engineered for the cold war.

it simply doesn't represent reality

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_groups_of_the_European_Parliament

Liberals like in Canada have 30-40% support in Europe.

I'm really not sure how to define US big 2... I think democrats are more center of the road, but republicans are more liberal, well atleast before 2001, when they became ultranationalists.

Again want to name a country that has a Liberal party left that hasn't joined one of the two sides of the spectrum as their lunch was eatin up 50 years ago.

I think you interpreted what I said wrong I never said that political parties have become more polarized they have become more moderate and in that moderation they ate the lunch of brokerage parties. Again I ask for an example outside Canada where their is a brokerage party left standing. I know is hard for a Liberal to hear but the rest of the world left that type of party behind a long time ago.

You can't be all things to all people it doesn't work.

As for your 30-40% BS number. The EU parliament has 88 Liberals in a parliament of 700 seats you do the math. You are dead wrong the Liberals died a quick death in the EU. All other 612 seats are taken up by Greens, Socialist or Conservatives.

The US is your traditional Democratic-Labour collation (like the NDP) vs. a Conservative (like the Conservative) parties. The key between these parties and brokerage parties like the Liberals is they have some core values that guarantee a base to build on.

Edited by punked
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Again want to name a country that has a Liberal party left that hasn't joined one of the two sides of the spectrum as their lunch was eatin up 50 years ago.

I think you interpreted what I said wrong I never said that political parties have become more polarized they have become more moderate and in that moderation they ate the lunch of brokerage parties. Again I ask for an example outside Canada where their is a brokerage party left standing. I know is hard for a Liberal to hear but the rest of the world left that type of party behind a long time ago.

You can't be all things to all people it doesn't work.

As for your 30-40% BS number. The EU parliament has 88 Liberals in a parliament of 700 seats you do the math. You are dead wrong the Liberals died a quick death in the EU.

But with the exception of the US, most right parties have moved towards the center and most left parties have also.

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But with the exception of the US, most right parties have moved towards the center and most left parties have also.

I agree they squeezed the center for all it is worth killing off Liberal parties all across the world. The Liberals problems in the rest of the world as in Canada is no core values to keep voters and volunteers around. People want ideas to vote for. You can see this right now. The media is making a big deal about this Liberal "race" while the Liberals have less voters who get to do it for free then the NDP who made all their voters pay.

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