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2012 US Presidential race polls


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Punked's trotting out the same tired and old lines from the 2010 mid-term elections...

News Week have the Dems with a 5 point advantage in the generic ballot. In Iowa and Ohio where early voting has started Dems are returning ballots 5 to 1 compared to Republicans. They will fight hard and lose some seats but for Republicans to set the bar so high they were dumb to do so.

Early voting, blah blah blah. How'd that election turn out? Oh right, Republicans winning at a record level, never before seen in the history of the country.

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Let's look at the predictions by pollsters that use state-by-state polls. These give a better indication of which candidates will win particular states and therefore get the electoral votes there.

As of Oct. 31

FiveThirtyEight: O-300, R-238

Electoral-Vote: O-280, R-206, T-52

Votamatic: O-332, R-206

HuffPost Pollster: O-277, R-206, T-55

RCP: O-201, R-191, T-146

TPM: O-303, R-191, T-44

Princeton Election Consortium: O-303, R-235

I wonder why Shady only ever refers to RCP.... hmm.

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As of Oct. 31

FiveThirtyEight: O-300, R-238

Electoral-Vote: O-280, R-206, T-52

Votamatic: O-332, R-206

HuffPost Pollster: O-277, R-206, T-55

RCP: O-201, R-191, T-146

TPM: O-303, R-191, T-44

Princeton Election Consortium: O-303, R-235

I wonder why Shady only ever refers to RCP.... hmm.

Did you know that Romneys lead with independents is larger than Obamas lead with independents in '08? Yep.

lmao.gif

I'm sorry but this is hilarious, like playing ping pong with without the ball.

Edited by Sleipnir
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I saw some pretty amazing stats tonight.

As of today, in 2012, 547,000 Democrats have voted early in Ohio, compared to 470,000 Republicans. Sounds pretty good for Obama right?

In 2008, at the same point in time, 712,000 Democrats had voted early in Ohio, compared to 372,000 Republicans. That's 165,000 less Democrats this time around, and 98,000 more Republicans.

On election day of 2008, Obama actually lost Ohio by 78,000 votes to John McCain, but because of the early vote, still won the state by 262,000 votes. However, this time around, the decrease in Democrats early vote, and the increase in Republican early vote, is a swing of 263,000 votes. Totalling more than Obama's entire 2008 margin of victory. So in order to win Ohio, he actually needs to win the election day vote. Which he couldn't even do against McCain 4 years ago.

Obama is toast! laugh.png

I know, I know, 80.9%! laugh.png

That math is fuzzy. My math is REAL. As in REAL votes.

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Big news from the Washington Post.

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Which means, the turnout of the election is going to look similar to that of 2010. Which spells doom for Obama.

So it'll basically be what it already has been - majority repub in the house, majority demo in the senate? How would that spell doom for Obama?

Edited by Sleipnir
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81.4%, actually. Obama is projected to win Ohio, but doesn't actually need to....

It's no surprise that a big Obama supporter has the Obama odds of winning at 80%. But that's not real votes. I'm talking about REAL votes. Your 80% number will mean as much on Wednesday after Obama loses as it does now.

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81.4% and counting is based on state-by-state polling and electoral college votes. All of this stuff about advanced polling and turnout is secondary to that information.

Nope, it's actual REAL data. Nate Silver picks and chooses what polls he uses, and which ones he doesn't. REAL votes mean REAL votes.

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It's no surprise that a big Obama supporter has the Obama odds of winning at 80%. But that's not real votes. I'm talking about REAL votes. Your 80% number will mean as much on Wednesday after Obama loses as it does now.

Nope, it's actual REAL data. Nate Silver picks and chooses what polls he uses, and which ones he doesn't. REAL votes mean REAL votes.

So the stuff below is just Obama supporters and not based on "actual REAL data"? Princeton publishes invalid and unreliable research, eh?

As of Oct. 31

FiveThirtyEight: O-300, R-238

Electoral-Vote: O-280, R-206, T-52

Votamatic: O-332, R-206

HuffPost Pollster: O-277, R-206, T-55

RCP: O-201, R-191, T-146

TPM: O-303, R-191, T-44

Princeton Election Consortium: O-303, R-235

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I saw some pretty amazing stats tonight.

As of today, in 2012, 547,000 Democrats have voted early in Ohio, compared to 470,000 Republicans. Sounds pretty good for Obama right?

In 2008, at the same point in time, 712,000 Democrats had voted early in Ohio, compared to 372,000 Republicans. That's 165,000 less Democrats this time around, and 98,000 more Republicans.

On election day of 2008, Obama actually lost Ohio by 78,000 votes to John McCain, but because of the early vote, still won the state by 262,000 votes. However, this time around, the decrease in Democrats early vote, and the increase in Republican early vote, is a swing of 263,000 votes. Totalling more than Obama's entire 2008 margin of victory. So in order to win Ohio, he actually needs to win the election day vote. Which he couldn't even do against McCain 4 years ago.

Obama is toast! laugh.png

I know, I know, 80.9%! laugh.png

That math is fuzzy. My math is REAL. As in REAL votes.

So, do you guys not think a swing of 260,000 votes is at all significant? You're seriously being that in the tank for Obama?

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Let's see, Huffington Post, FiveThirtyEight, and Talking Points Memo are all leftwing blogs/sites. RCP and Electoral-Vote are legitimate. Never heard of Votamatic. Who runs that? Sounds pretty sketchy. Votamatic, seriously? That's what they call themselves?

So your test of validity is that they "sound legitimate" and agree with your ideology?

Regardless of how ridiculous that is, did you notice they are almost all in complete agreement? You disregard HuffPost because it's a "liberal blog," but you accept Electoral-Vote, which came to practically the same result.

Seriously, this is sad.

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