August1991 Posted September 13, 2012 Report Share Posted September 13, 2012 A candidate needs 270 to win. This is my current tally: Obama 196 California 55 Connecticut 7 Delaware 3 District of Columbia 3 Hawaii 4 Illinois 20 Maine 4 Maryland 10 Massachusetts 11 Minnesota 10 New Jersey 14 New York 29 Oregon 7 Rhode Island 4 Vermont 3 Washington 12 ********************** Romney 179 Alabama 9 Alaska 3 Arkansas 6 Georgia 16 Idaho 4 Kansas 6 Kentucky 8 Louisiana 8 Mississippi 6 Missouri 10 Montana 3 Nebraska 5 North Dakota 3 Oklahoma 7 South Carolina 9 South Dakota 3 Tennessee 11 Texas 38 Utah 6 West Virginia 5 Wisconsin 10 Wyoming 3 ************************** Undecided 163 Arizona 11 Colorado 9 Florida 29 Indiana 11 Iowa 6 Michigan 16 Nevada 6 New Hampshire 4 New Mexico 5 North Carolina 15 Ohio 18 Pennsylvania 20 Virginia 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo Posted September 13, 2012 Report Share Posted September 13, 2012 Today - Sept.13: Obama - 319 / Romney - 219 Nov.6 Forecast: Obama - 315 / Romney - 222 ... further to Nate Silver and his ' 538 Forecast'. care to go up against his 2008 and 2010 results? Just 270 to win... What does Nate Silver say? Oh my - not looking so good for Mitt, hey! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BubberMiley Posted September 13, 2012 Report Share Posted September 13, 2012 I think the GOP has already given up that lyin' Ryan is going to steal Wisconsin for them. "Two hours and fifty-something minutes!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted September 13, 2012 Report Share Posted September 13, 2012 A candidate needs 270 to win. This is my current tally: Obama 196 California 55 Connecticut 7 Delaware 3 District of Columbia 3 Hawaii 4 Illinois 20 Maine 4 Maryland 10 Massachusetts 11 Minnesota 10 New Jersey 14 New York 29 Oregon 7 Rhode Island 4 Vermont 3 Washington 12 ********************** Romney 179 Alabama 9 Alaska 3 Arkansas 6 Georgia 16 Idaho 4 Kansas 6 Kentucky 8 Louisiana 8 Mississippi 6 Missouri 10 Montana 3 Nebraska 5 North Dakota 3 Oklahoma 7 South Carolina 9 South Dakota 3 Tennessee 11 Texas 38 Utah 6 West Virginia 5 Wisconsin 10 Wyoming 3 ************************** Undecided 163 Arizona 11 Colorado 9 Florida 29 Indiana 11 Iowa 6 Michigan 16 Nevada 6 New Hampshire 4 New Mexico 5 North Carolina 15 Ohio 18 Pennsylvania 20 Virginia 13 Your tally sucks. Obama is up 10 in Michigan, up 9 (according to both campaigns) in Ohio, New Mexico is a weird year because Johnson is on the ballot Romney stands no chance, he is up 8 in Pennsylvania. Other then that we an agree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkman Posted September 14, 2012 Report Share Posted September 14, 2012 With that many undecideds, this race is a long way from over. And judging from Obama's constant reacting to Romney actions(rushing down to visit LA after Romney goes, finally saying something about the embassy attacks after Romney does, etc) he's finally starting to realize that the voters aren't going to offer him a love in this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BC_chick Posted September 14, 2012 Report Share Posted September 14, 2012 Today - Sept.13: Obama - 319 / Romney - 219 Nov.6 Forecast: Obama - 315 / Romney - 222 Obama is also up to 65% on Intrade. He was just over 50 last week. Romney's reaction to the Muslim riots is being compared to McCain stopping his campaign to deal with the financial crisis. Both were deemed very unpresidential. Others are comparing him to Nixon. Ouch. I'm not seeing how he can bounce back anymore. His face looks defeated too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerrySeinfeld Posted September 14, 2012 Report Share Posted September 14, 2012 Obama is also up to 65% on Intrade. He was just over 50 last week. Romney's reaction to the Muslim riots is being compared to McCain stopping his campaign to deal with the financial crisis. Both were deemed very unpresidential. Others are comparing him to Nixon. Ouch. I'm not seeing how he can bounce back anymore. His face looks defeated too. SPeaking of stock trading - millions bought Facebook too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted September 14, 2012 Report Share Posted September 14, 2012 With that many undecideds, this race is a long way from over. And judging from Obama's constant reacting to Romney actions(rushing down to visit LA after Romney goes, finally saying something about the embassy attacks after Romney does, etc) he's finally starting to realize that the voters aren't going to offer him a love in this time. What undecideds according to the new NBC poll there aren't even enough undecided in Ohio, Virgina, or Florida that if every undecided broke Romney that he could win. I think you need to go look at the polling from this week because you are talking like it is three months ago and it isn't. People are breaking and they are breaking hard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo Posted September 14, 2012 Report Share Posted September 14, 2012 538 Forecast: Today - Sept.13: Obama - 319 / Romney - 219 Nov.6 Forecast: Obama - 315 / Romney - 222 HuffPost Politics: Obama - 313 / Romney - 206 ======================================================================================= electoral-vote.com Obama - 332 / Romney - 206 ======================================================================================= Princeton Election Consortium Obama - 313 / Romney - 225 ======================================================================================= FHQ - FrontloadingHQ: Obama - 332 / Romney - 206 ======================================================================================= Real Clear Politics: Obama - 332 / Romney - 206 ======================================================================================= 2012 Electoral College Calculator - Consortium of 6 Projections: Obama - 359 / Romney - 179 ======================================================================================= Election Projection: Obama - 332 / Romney - 206 ======================================================================================= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerrySeinfeld Posted September 14, 2012 Report Share Posted September 14, 2012 (edited) HuffPost Politics: Obama - 313 / Romney - 206 ======================================================================================= electoral-vote.com Obama - 332 / Romney - 206 ======================================================================================= Princeton Election Consortium Obama - 313 / Romney - 225 ======================================================================================= FHQ - FrontloadingHQ: Obama - 332 / Romney - 206 ======================================================================================= Real Clear Politics: Obama - 332 / Romney - 206 ======================================================================================= 2012 Electoral College Calculator - Consortium of 6 Projections: Obama - 359 / Romney - 179 ======================================================================================= Election Projection: Obama - 332 / Romney - 206 ======================================================================================= Good for you - you can cut and paste. But can you think? The Obama lead is a mile wide and an inch thick. He needs his friends in the media and polling institutions to dishearten Republicans, because we all know this will be an election decided by turnout. Republicans are motivated. Are the sloth dependency hacks at the DNC? Maybe, but I would't bet on people who's main contention is that they want more free stuff. In typical fashion, they were motivated by colour in 2008. Not sure those same welfare queens will get off the couch this time. Edited September 14, 2012 by JerrySeinfeld Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo Posted September 14, 2012 Report Share Posted September 14, 2012 shorter Jer: liberal media, squawk!... liberal media, squawk! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerrySeinfeld Posted September 14, 2012 Report Share Posted September 14, 2012 shorter Jer: liberal media, squawk!... liberal media, squawk! huh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewTeddy Posted September 14, 2012 Report Share Posted September 14, 2012 (edited) I've been following http://www.electoral-vote.com/ since they began Their track record is far better than any Canadian projections, including my own. Edited September 14, 2012 by TheNewTeddy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerrySeinfeld Posted September 14, 2012 Report Share Posted September 14, 2012 (edited) I've been following http://www.electoral-vote.com/ since they began Their track record is far better than any Canadian projections, including my own. It looks like a big dependent pestule of fatness slowly rolling over onto the poor people stupid enough to rely on themselves in the world. Edited September 14, 2012 by JerrySeinfeld Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo Posted September 15, 2012 Report Share Posted September 15, 2012 It looks like a big dependent pestule of fatness slowly rolling over onto the poor people stupid enough to rely on themselves in the world. don't be too disheartened Jer... bear down and squeeze out one of those electoral college projections that come from your favoured non-liberal media types - I mean, there's a few around - you should check out Karl Rove's lil' effort... you know, Bush's Brain! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerrySeinfeld Posted September 15, 2012 Report Share Posted September 15, 2012 don't be too disheartened Jer... bear down and squeeze out one of those electoral college projections that come from your favoured non-liberal media types - I mean, there's a few around - you should check out Karl Rove's lil' effort... you know, Bush's Brain! haha. I think my guys will lose. But hope is still with me! As for Bush, the best thing I ever read about him was this: "If Bush is stupid, how stupid do you have to be to be constantly outsmarted by him." LOL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo Posted September 15, 2012 Report Share Posted September 15, 2012 haha. I think my guys will lose. But hope is still with me! hope? Hope is with you? Hope & change Jer... hope & change! As for Bush, the best thing I ever read about him was this:"If Bush is stupid, how stupid do you have to be to be constantly outsmarted by him." LOL! ah yes, clearly, you're a devotee of Bush revisionism? Hey Jer, keeping it timely here... why didn't the Republicans put that smart Bushy guy front and center during the campaign - why wasn't such a smart guy at the convention Jer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted September 16, 2012 Author Report Share Posted September 16, 2012 Your tally sucks. Obama is up 10 in Michigan, up 9 (according to both campaigns) in Ohio, New Mexico is a weird year because Johnson is on the ballot Romney stands no chance, he is up 8 in Pennsylvania. Other then that we an agree.I wouldn't say that Romney has to write these off just yet. I was "conservative" in giving states to either candidate (although I gave Minnesota to Obama).I've been following http://www.electoral-vote.com/ since they began Their track record is far better than any Canadian projections, including my own. That's a good site but it gives Pennsylvania to Obama, and I'm not so certain of that.----- I have to agree however that Romney just doesn't have the numbers. To win, alot of states would have to go his way in November and I don't see any game changer between now and then. If we give Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida and, say, Virginia to Obama (all believable), then he is over 270. The first debate is on 3 October. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkman Posted September 16, 2012 Report Share Posted September 16, 2012 The thing is, the numbers vary so wildly in polling results that it gives one pause. Polling was wrong in both Bush elections as well. Something else is in play here, I'd love to know what it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted September 16, 2012 Report Share Posted September 16, 2012 The thing is, the numbers vary so wildly in polling results that it gives one pause. Polling was wrong in both Bush elections as well. Something else is in play here, I'd love to know what it is. Nope the polls were dead on Bush Kerry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted September 16, 2012 Report Share Posted September 16, 2012 I wouldn't say that Romney has to write these off just yet. I was "conservative" in giving states to either candidate (although I gave Minnesota to Obama). That's a good site but it gives Pennsylvania to Obama, and I'm not so certain of that. ----- I have to agree however that Romney just doesn't have the numbers. To win, alot of states would have to go his way in November and I don't see any game changer between now and then. If we give Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida and, say, Virginia to Obama (all believable), then he is over 270. The first debate is on 3 October. Newest Pennsylvania poll has Obama at +11 and Romney pulled all his ads so...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkman Posted September 16, 2012 Report Share Posted September 16, 2012 Nope the polls were dead on Bush Kerry. Exit polling data in the 04 election gave Kerry the advantage only to be wrong. But what of the current big spread on polling results? Can they all be just as accurate when the results are so conflicting? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted September 16, 2012 Report Share Posted September 16, 2012 Exit polling data in the 04 election gave Kerry the advantage only to be wrong. But what of the current big spread on polling results? Can they all be just as accurate when the results are so conflicting? Yah exit polling is very different then polling. You know that right? The polling for 2004 was dead on. You have to read about their models. Lets take Rasmussen just for example. They have Romney at +1 right now. Why do they have that and no one else does? Well they have weighted their polls to have more Republicans by 5%. I will now point in a presidential election in the last 40 years that Republicans have never out numbered democrats. Most other polling firms are pegging a even race some have the Dems up 4 or 5 points. Figuring what the make up of the electorate will be is key in this type of polling. If you don't want to dig into the numbers your best bet is to go with RPC which averages all the polls out. This seems to work the best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkman Posted September 16, 2012 Report Share Posted September 16, 2012 I wasn't aware of the Dem to Rep percentage in elections, you know your stuff punked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted September 16, 2012 Report Share Posted September 16, 2012 I wasn't aware of the Dem to Rep percentage in elections, you know your stuff punked. Pollsters really try to peg the make up of the electorate. So they will poll and adjust for race, gender, party affiliation. They will ask each if they will vote and try from there figure what the electorate will look like. Obama is actually polling better then 2008 among RVs or registered voters but many of his voters are saying they wont make it to the booth which is why his lead is only 3-4% instead of the 7-9% it would be if everyone voted. I agree with you though. I have read the internals of a lot of polls and they are all over the place. Some places wont even post their models so you can't even get an idea of what you are looking at. I think many pollsters are playing with their models to make this race closer then it is, weighing more Republicans then they probably should but if you don't like a poll this election wait 10 minutes there will be another one which might say what you want it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.