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It looks like we're walking into another minority situation


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By the looks of the polls this morning we appear to be headed into yet another minority situation. However if the polls reflect the true voter situation the Liberals are going to take a big hit and the NDP will be in position to form the opposition.

I see another election in short order as this one looks like it is going to be a big waste of money that is going to resolve nothing. Just another few months with nobody at the helm of one of the Greatest Nations on the planet.

Good luck to everyone and hang on, this is just the beginning of a very rocky time in Canada's political life. :(

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I see another election in short order as this one looks like it is going to be a big waste of money that is going to resolve nothing. Just another few months with nobody at the helm of one of the Greatest Nations on the planet.

Not if theres an NDP led coalition.

Technically in that case we won't see another election untill 2016!

WWWTT

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Conservatives have a number of things going for them that might still give them a majority:

1) It's been said that Conservatives usually do a bit better that what polls indicate....usually because their voters are "conservative" and play their cards a little closer to their vest.

2) The Conservative Party is recognized as being better at getting the voters out.

3) The NDP vote is traditionally soft......SOME portion will likely switch in the polling booth.

4) There has been no last minute pall hanging over the Conservatives - like a hidden agenda or the Arts funding or the Supreme Court being Liberal. It's all very quiet.

I don't see anything going AGAINST the Conservatives heading to the voting booth. Canadians will make their decision and everybody will have to accept - and live with the results.

BTW.....I'm guessing 162 seats for the Tories.

Edited by Keepitsimple
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I'm guessing, and hoping that the Tories will lose seats. There were a number of Tory candidates that wouldn't go to debates and people were angry at that. A great number of people don't like Harper and his ways and those people are some that did vote for him before. IF it take the NDP to put Harper out to pasture, then good and I can see the NDP in minority with Tories second. Harper is no good for the party. He has support in Alberta, Saskatchewan and maybe Manitoba but that's it. It could be close and because of the polls, I think more voters, soft Tory and Liberals will vote NDP to get Harper out of there.

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Good luck to everyone and hang on, this is just the beginning of a very rocky time in Canada's political life.
And a very, very expensive time when we can least afford it. I expect regional alienation to become much worse too. Quebec is going to get paid off bigtime by PM Layton.
If you expect the Liberals to prop up the NDP for 4 straight years, heck for even 1 straight year to begin with...
The Liberals will be a shanbles for at least two years, during which they can support Layton and at least have some influence, or support Harper and be ignored as usual. Guess which one they'll pick.

Think about why they forced an election in the first place......no point in backing away from that now.

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If you expect the Liberals to prop up the NDP for 4 straight years, heck for even 1 straight year to begin with...

The Liberals will be in a shambles - down to a corporal's guard mostly consisting of hacks going back to the Chr├ętien era and after three stinkers at the helm, looking forward to having as leader either a defrocked socialist or the son of a former PM who got his brains from his mother, not his father. Or if they want to be totally irrelevant they could elect Dominique Leblanc.

No way would Layton want to have anything to do with this bunch.

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And a very, very expensive time when we can least afford it. I expect regional alienation to become much worse too. Quebec is going to get paid off bigtime by PM Layton.

If half of Jack's caucus is from Quebec it will be a race to see who is the more willing to pander to Quebec - the Bloc or the NDP.

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Conservatives have a number of things going for them that might still give them a majority:

1) It's been said that Conservatives usually do a bit better that what polls indicate....usually because their voters are "conservative" and play their cards a little closer to their vest.

2) The Conservative Party is recognized as being better at getting the voters out.

3) The NDP vote is traditionally soft......SOME portion will likely switch in the polling booth.

4) There has been no last minute pall hanging over the Conservatives - like a hidden agenda or the Arts funding or the Supreme Court being Liberal. It's all very quiet.

I don't see anything going AGAINST the Conservatives heading to the voting booth. Canadians will make their decision and everybody will have to accept - and live with the results.

BTW.....I'm guessing 162 seats for the Tories.

Oh come on KIS you're seriously still hanging on to the Tory Majority fantasy? They are already behind the 8 ball in Quebec and will likely lose seats there that they won't really be able to make up elsewhere. Ontario they are flat at best, they can't really manke any gains in the Prairies, and BC is the only other region that has any significant amount of seats. Even in the Atlantic they have no momentum. I agree there isn't a negative pall surrounding the CPC but neither is their a positive lift for them. They are flat at best, and a party that is not going up is bound to lose seats not gain them.

At this point I'm guessing the CPC's will be in the low to mid 130's for their seat count, with a weakened minority perhaps we'll see a much more conciliatory Mr. Harper, though I doubt it. It will be interesting to see what happens, if Mr. Harper doesn't play nice I fully expect the throne speech to be defeated, and this time there will be no prorogue out of jail free card to play.

At present the NDP have the following advantages

1) As a general rule most polls indicate that they actually like Jack Layton, we can't deny that a leader does have an impact on voter choice.

2) NDP are the only party with upward momentum even at this point.

3) Vote splitting is indeterminate, in most ridings it appears the NDP have eaten up the LPC other than their typical Ontario Urban strongholds, this means they are competing directly with the CPC, and three way splits will not be as common as we have seen previously.

4) If it is true that the NDP have essentially replaced the LPC as 2nd Party option in Canada, this will only strengthen their vote.

Having said that if this goes as many are predicting we may indeed be very close to a return to majority governments. If the NDP does win official opposition, I think this will give them a chance to truly mature as a party. They will likely become a great deal more pragmatic in their policy approach, and hopefully move much more to the centre. If the LPC does in fact completely implode, it's likely that the moderate to left liberals will head to the NDP further strengthening their base, and moderating the party as a whole. If they can prove themselves to be far more moderate than they are currently perceived to be, they may in fact attain the "natural governing party of Canada" status the Liberals once enjoyed.

Many people are celebrating the end of the LPC, but what most don't realize is this creates a political void in Canada, and the NDP are the most likely to fill it. If they want to continue to fill it, they will need to move more to the center fiscally, with politics being as regional as they are in Canada, compromise and pragmatism will win the day. This was the Liberal secret to 140 odd years of success, if the NDP doesn't cease the opportunity, I feel the LPC will be resurrected in some form to fill the void of fiscal conservatism combined with social liberalism.

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Oh come on KIS you're seriously still hanging on to the Tory Majority fantasy?

I am prepared to eat a serving of humble pie with a side dish of crow but hey, what are elections for if not cheering for your team and hoping for the best? Good luck Dave.....we'll check in tomorrow to see what we're having for breakfast.

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I am prepared to eat a serving of humble pie with a side dish of crow but hey, what are elections for if not cheering for your team and hoping for the best? Good luck Dave.....we'll check in tomorrow to see what we're having for breakfast.

Hah that sounds like a deal to me, does hollandaise sauce go well with crow? I wouldn't consider myself and NDP, and I'm one of the few voting for a candidate as opposed to the party itself. I'm fascinated by the apparent implosion of the LPC and the rush of the NDP to supplant them, and at how aghast and off balance this has made the CPC. They were prepared to slug it out with Ignatieff and the LPC, but this is a devil they don't know and weren't prepared to deal with. Probably one of the most exciting elections I can remember that's for certain.

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No way would Layton want to have anything to do with this bunch.

Nope. He will form a coalition with the Liberals and Bloc, or A Cooperative since signing anything with Duceppe would be a death sentence even for Jacko. It is the grand prize- governance. You are dreaming if you think Layton will bypass that at any price. Remember- it isn't his money that pays Quebec.

Layton, Ignatieff and Duceppe did not go to all this effort, all this expense to eat crap served by Harper to them for the last five years.

All three will be necessary to keep a Cooperative in govt, but their alternative is much, much worse.

Edited by fellowtraveller
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The NDP looked dead to many at start of the campaign, media only questions to him were why are so few supporters at events. Then suddenly the bloc mentioned sovereignty vote, bloc changed to Layton and a huge surge happened.

Saying liberals are dead is extremely premature. Big swings can happen, doesn't prove anything. Need at least another one.

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Nope. He will form a coalition with the Liberals and Bloc, or A Cooperative since signing anything with Duceppe would be a death sentence even for Jacko. It is the grand prize- governance. You are dreaming if you think Layton will bypass that at any price. Remember- it isn't his money that pays Quebec.

Layton, Ignatieff and Duceppe did not go to all this effort, all this expense to eat crap served by Harper to them for the last five years.

All three will be necessary to keep a Cooperative in govt, but their alternative is much, much worse.

I think that remains to be seen at this juncture, we'll have to wait until the results are in, but one thing cannot be denied the BLOC is in for their worst election results in their entire history. Incidentally so are the liberals, or so all signs point to at present. If there is a coalition the bloc likely won't be necessary. It'll all depend on how Ontario goes for the LPC and BC goes for the NDP. One things for certain we're in for a very very different parliament this time around, and Canada is about to become a great deal more orange.

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The NDP looked dead to many at start of the campaign, media only questions to him were why are so few supporters at events. Then suddenly the bloc mentioned sovereignty vote, bloc changed to Layton and a huge surge happened.

Saying liberals are dead is extremely premature. Big swings can happen, doesn't prove anything. Need at least another one.

I don't know that they're dead yet, but at around 20%, lower than they've been in close to 1.5 centuries, is indeed a death knell for them. This has been a long time coming and hopefully they will take the time to renew the party, or ultimately be absorbed and replaced by the NDP. The fact remains Canada needs a party like the LPC, whether that means a more fiscally moderate NDP or a rejuvenated LPC remains to be seen.

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I don't know that they're dead yet, but at around 20%, lower than they've been in close to 1.5 centuries, is indeed a death knell for them. This has been a long time coming and hopefully they will take the time to renew the party, or ultimately be absorbed and replaced by the NDP. The fact remains Canada needs a party like the LPC, whether that means a more fiscally moderate NDP or a rejuvenated LPC remains to be seen.

Whether we need a Liberal party or not is debatable to me, as its demise will naturally pull both the Tories and NDP closer to the middle ground in a race to see who can pick up Liberal voters. To a large extent, and despite some pull among the old Reform rump to keep things right-of-centre, the Tories have done just that, and I think the moderating of the NDP message once they figured out that this was a very unique opportunity for them indicates the direction they'll be going in.

And that's the largest danger for the Liberals. If both the left and right move towards the centre, then where do the Liberals go? They'll be like the Progressive Conservatives in the 1990s, a mortally wounded party whittled down to its core support, its very existence depriving its nearest ideological neighbour the support necessary to win elections.

The Liberals are done in Quebec, they're clearly losing their core urban support, some of it bleeding to the Tories, a lot of it to the NDP. I have a hard time seeing how it is exactly they rebuild. If the NDP and Tories both manage to snuggle up to the centre, what are they going to do? Be more Tory than the Tories and more left-wing than the NDP?

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I don't know that they're dead yet, but at around 20%, lower than they've been in close to 1.5 centuries, is indeed a death knell for them. This has been a long time coming and hopefully they will take the time to renew the party, or ultimately be absorbed and replaced by the NDP. The fact remains Canada needs a party like the LPC, whether that means a more fiscally moderate NDP or a rejuvenated LPC remains to be seen.

NDP and CCF were at those numbers for how many decades?...the support of 1 in 5 canadians is not a trivial number...
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NDP and CCF were at those numbers for how many decades?...the support of 1 in 5 canadians is not a trivial number...

The problem for the Liberals is that they are moving down to a place they've never been, whereas that was the NDP's home for a while, and are now moving up.

Positive movement will always be better than negative movement which destroys morale.

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The problem for the Liberals is that they are moving down to a place they've never been, whereas that was the NDP's home for a while, and are now moving up.

Positive movement will always be better than negative movement which destroys morale.

As well, the NDP, being solidly left-wing all these years gives them some ability to occupy some centre ground. The Liberals have, by and large, always been centrist, so they've really got nowhere to go. We can see how out-lefting the NDP in this election basically deprived them of their brand recognition.

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Saying liberals are dead is extremely premature. Big swings can happen, doesn't prove anything. Need at least another one.

I would agree. They could possibly get more votes than they did last election, because a lot of Liberals stayed home. This years there's no Green Shift and many will go out to vote to try and keep the NDP out of government. I wouldn't be surprised if some strategically vote conservative.

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Whether we need a Liberal party or not is debatable to me, as its demise will naturally pull both the Tories and NDP closer to the middle ground in a race to see who can pick up Liberal voters. To a large extent, and despite some pull among the old Reform rump to keep things right-of-centre, the Tories have done just that, and I think the moderating of the NDP message once they figured out that this was a very unique opportunity for them indicates the direction they'll be going in.

And that's the largest danger for the Liberals. If both the left and right move towards the centre, then where do the Liberals go? They'll be like the Progressive Conservatives in the 1990s, a mortally wounded party whittled down to its core support, its very existence depriving its nearest ideological neighbour the support necessary to win elections.

The Liberals are done in Quebec, they're clearly losing their core urban support, some of it bleeding to the Tories, a lot of it to the NDP. I have a hard time seeing how it is exactly they rebuild. If the NDP and Tories both manage to snuggle up to the centre, what are they going to do? Be more Tory than the Tories and more left-wing than the NDP?

I think (hope) that the NDP do occupy the political void left by the demise of the LPC. I think, that we'll see the NDP move more toward the center and they may very well be the heirs to the lions share of the LPC support, given the CPC's penchant for social conservatism even blue grits would have a difficult time supporting them.

We really do need to get back to the two main party model, with a third party waiting in the wings, our system truly is dependent on having two relatively evenly matched parties. This keeps both in check and prevents the level of corruption we saw during the successive Chretien majorities and to a lesser extent the level of corruption we've seen from the CPC. Nothing keeps you honest, though I hesitate to use the word when referring to politicians, than having a strong political rival constantly on your heels.

I find it interesting to note that the Death of PC's was also the death knell for the LPC. Had the PC's not fallen so far from grace the LPC never would have been in a position to fall either. I suppose my central point in all of this, is we need a party that is fiscally moderate to conservative and socially liberal. The NDP have the socially liberal aspect in their favor and it is far more likely IMNHO that they would be more inclined to move toward the fiscal centre than the CPC would be to move toward the social centre.

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