Will Layton form a coalition if NDP finish 2nd place?

[ToadBrother]

Why? Presumably if you vote NDP it's because you want to see their policies implemented, and a coalition is a perfectly reasonable way to accomplish that.

The very concept of a coalition means that any election promises will have to be filtered through the new government. Witness the UK coalition.

[fellowtraveller]

I think my main point this thread is that Layton MUST be asked of his intentions about whether or not he will attempt to form a coalition government in such a situation.

I don't understand your confusion. Layton spoke frankly before the election of his eagerness to be in a coalition, why would it change if he saw himself leading it?

Of course he will attempt, it and I don't see any real obstacles. Certainly the Libs and Bloc would do it cheerfully. And hey ho, conveniently it will not matter what Iggy said on the matter because his successor will be allowed his/her own course.

[cybercoma]

I'm confused about one thing in regards to coalitions. If the NDP comes in second, but has more seats with the Liberals as a coalition, what's stopping them from approaching the GG and asking to form government, instead of the CPC, on May 3?

[RNG]

I'm confused about one thing in regards to coalitions. If the NDP comes in second, but has more seats with the Liberals as a coalition, what's stopping them from approaching the GG and asking to form government, instead of the CPC, on May 3?

To the best of my knowledge, nothing. Other than maybe asking Harper if he and the Bloc want to form a coalition, assuming their combined seat total was larger than that of the NDP plus Libs. What a freaking disaster in the making, either way.

[ToadBrother]

To the best of my knowledge, nothing. Other than maybe asking Harper if he and the Bloc want to form a coalition, assuming their combined seat total was larger than that of the NDP plus Libs. What a freaking disaster in the making, either way.

The incumbent Prime Minister always gets the first chance to form a government, even if he no longer holds the plurality of seats. In the UK last year, Gordon Brown had first rights to try to form a government, because he was the incumbent, though it proved too difficult for him to achieve and he ultimately went to the Queen and resigned.

So, even if the NDP were to win the plurality of seats, unless they win an out-and-out majority, Stephen Harper still has dibs on trying to form another Government.

[August1991]

With the recent flip in voter support for the Liberals/NDP and this recent NDP surge in the polls showing a strong possibility that the NDP may finish with the 2nd most seats and that the CPC could very well get another minority, this is an important question to ask:

Would Layton attempt to form a coalition if NDP finishes 2nd place?

MG, in all likelihood, Layton would try to form a coalition or at least to defeat a minority Harper government at the first opportunity.

The far better question is to ask whether Duceppe and the Bloc or Ignatieff and the Liberals would support the NDP in defeating Harper.

Well, I think that it's fair to say that Duceppe is going to resign as leader on the evening of May 2nd because he probably will not have a seat. The Bloc is unlikely to keep its official status.

Ditto for Ignatieff. Although the Liberals may still be an official party and Ignatieff might win his seat, I suspect that he too will resign as Liberal leader on Monday.

IOW, I think neither party will be in any kind of position to defeat the Conservatives on a confidence motion and then prop up an NDP minority government. The Bloc won't have the seats and the Liberals won't have a leader. Moreover, it would be political suicide for the Liberals to side with the NDP.

-----

I think it was suggested in an another thread that the Liberals could potentially split apart and some MPs go to the Conservatives and others to the NDP. The long-term survival of the Liberal Party is an interesting question but in general in Canada, political parties don't spontaneously commit suicide. They usually fade away and then get absorbed/morph into something else over time. The federal Liberal Party will not die a quick death.

[ToadBrother]

I think it was suggested in an another thread that the Liberals could potentially split apart and some MPs go to the Conservatives and others to the NDP. The long-term survival of the Liberal Party is an interesting question but in general in Canada, political parties don't spontaneously commit suicide. They usually fade away and then get absorbed/morph into something else over time. The federal Liberal Party will not die a quick death.

I think if the Liberals enter a formal alliance with the NDP or Tories, that slow death will be rather quick.

[cybercoma]

So, even if the NDP were to win the plurality of seats, unless they win an out-and-out majority, Stephen Harper still has dibs on trying to form another Government.

Huh? The NDP could win more seats than the Conservatives and Stephen Harper would still have first chance to form government? Really?

[CANADIEN]

Huh? The NDP could win more seats than the Conservatives and Stephen Harper would still have first chance to form government? Really?

Under our system, he is still the PM and his government is still the Government until he resigns as a result of an election or loose the confidence of the House. So, if there is a possibility that he will form a government that will get the confidence of the House, he gets first dibs.

[August1991]

Huh? The NDP could win more seats than the Conservatives and Stephen Harper would still have first chance to form government? Really?

On May 3rd, Harper will still be PM of Canada however people vote on Monday. And until he tenders his resignation to the GG, he will still be PM.

So, in theory, if the NDP won more seats than the Conservatives, Harper could still remain as PM, convene Parliament and then go to the House and test its confidence. I doubt very much if Harper would do that unless the seat totals between the Conservatives and NDP were very, very close. (In 1972, Trudeau arguably would have stayed on as PM if the seat totals had gone slightly the other way.)

In any case, this is academic because the polls indicate that the Conservatives will easily have a plurality of seats if not a majority.

----

For the record, I agree with TB above that Harper is using this "coalition threat" as a way to try to scare people into voting Tory. There is zero chance of the Liberals/Bloc supporting an NDP government. Why would the Liberals accept to play second fiddle to the NDP? If an NDP government were successful, it would just eat the rump Liberals in the next election. And if the NDP government were a disaster (far more likely result), the Liberals would be blamed for having enabled the charade.

I predict now a minority Conservative government with about 140 seats facing an NDP official opposition with about 100 seats. The Liberals will have the balance and the Bloc reduced to 10 seats or less.

Ignatieff and Duceppe will resign and the Liberals will look at their popular vote total (around 20%) and give serious though to where they go as a party. In the meantime, they will support a Tory government on critical confidence votes.

Over the next six months or so, the federal NDP caucus will turn into an entertaining three ring circus.

Edited April 30, 2011 by August1991

[fellowtraveller]

There is zero chance of the Liberals/Bloc supporting an NDP government. Why would the Liberals accept to play second fiddle to the NDP?

If they have fewer seats, they are second fiddle by default.

It does not matter what they accept or don't accept.

They cannot abide being completely left out of governance, they know it is far better to have a crappy seat at The Big Table than having your nose pressed against the glass looking in. The Libs will take any scraps they can get.

You have to also ask, why did the Opposition force an election at this time? And please lets not have any of that 'contempt of Parliament' horseshit.

The answer is that they think that- no matter how the players align- the three together can hold power over a minority CPC. They can, And they will.

[August1991]

If they have fewer seats, they are second fiddle by default.

True, the Liberals are going to be second fiddle. The question is which orchestra are they going to play along with: the NDP or the Conservatives?

To play with the NDP, they first have to reject the Conservatives. On May 3rd, the Liberals will be in no position to make these kinds of decisions. The federal Liberals are going to be shell-shocked for at least six months or more.

So, they'll stay with teh status quo which means voting to support a minority Conservative government.

----

FT, do you seriously see the Liberals actively helping Layton to become PM so that he can name a cabinet from within the NDP caucus? If an interim Liberal leader were to pursue this strategy, there would be a revolt among the remaining Liberal MPs.

It is one thing for the Liberals to form a government with NDP support. It is quite another for the NDP to form a government with Liberal support.

Edited April 30, 2011 by August1991

[fellowtraveller]

FT, do you seriously see the Liberals actively helping Layton to become PM so that he can name a cabinet from within the NDP caucus?

Of course. It is still better than the alternative, another four years of being ignored by Harper, who will continue to act as if he has a majority.

I ask yet again, why did the Opposition choose this time- finally- to bring down Harper? Please don't resurrect the old tired drivel about 'contempt of Parliament', it still does not play.

Individually, and as a group, they'll stay the course they began six weeks ago. Of course.

[August1991]

Of course. It is still better than the alternative, another four years of being ignored by Harper, who will continue to act as if he has a majority.

Well, clearly you and I have a different view of the federal Liberal Party.

In all likelihood, the Liberals will win about 40-50 seats tonight and while Ignatieff will probably keep his own seat, he is finished as leader (if he doesn't resign tonight).

In such disarray, the last thing the Liberals will want is to prop up the party that has taken their place as Official Opposition and wants to permanently displace them. Any sitting Liberal MP will know that they too could have lost to an NDP opponent.

This will all play out in a few weeks when Harper convenes parliament and puts his (likely) minority government to a confidence vote in a new budget. With a few tweaks, the budget will pass with Liberal support and away we'll go. The interesting question is how long will this minority government survive? I wouldn't be surprised if it lasts about a year or less. Once the NDP caucus turns into a complete circus, and depending on circumstances, Harper will be sorely tempted to pull the plug and do as Charest did with the ADQ.

Two other scenarios for tonight:

A) The Conservatives get a majority.

The Conservatives get a minority but the Bloc has enough seats to prop up the Conservatives.

[cybercoma]

I ask yet again, why did the Opposition choose this time- finally- to bring down Harper? Please don't resurrect the old tired drivel about 'contempt of Parliament', it still does not play.

Don't resurrect it because you don't like the answer?

Look. The Harper Government withheld information from Parliament. That's the worst possible thing a government can do. They're not sovereign. They're beholden to Parliament. When it's a minority government, they need to maintain Parliament's confidence. I'm not very confident with a government that hides information from the assembly of voters' representatives. I'm not ok with a government hiding what they're doing with our money. In fact, I would think that Conservatives themselves would find this absolutely intolerable. If they're allowed to do this with impunity, imagine the precedent that sets. Future government, whose ideologies you really don't agree, will be able to fund whatever pet project they feel like funding and not get approval from the House. I'm not ok with that and neither should you be. This is why it's so damn important for people not to vote for the Harper Conservatives, regardless whether you believe in conservative ideology or not.

[fellowtraveller]

Don't resurrect it because you don't like the answer?

No, because nobody except apparently you gives a s***.

It has utterly failed to resonate with voters, they don't care.

The Opposition had a budget in front of them, but they knew that going to the polls under that pretext was a non starter. Teh budget was so bland and non confrontational they had this bag of wank in the wings. You can pretend otherwise, but it is past time to drop the p[retext. Real Politik, played by both sides.

The real reason we are now voting is that the Oppostion a) was weary of looking like losers at five years and counting of a minority govt and thought they could win - as a group. They still do, though an important detail of who comes second has emerged. But that is really all that has changed, they will still dump a Harper minority soon, and then start paying their very large and very real political debts. At my expense.

You don't give any crdit to Canadians, they can see that every member is in contempt of Parliament every day. Most of them rarely show up, those that do spend their camera time braying like hyenas upon command of their House leaders, no exceptions permitted.

Where is your outrage for that? Where is your rant on that contempt?

Are you pretending that it wasn't like that during the Chretien years too? The PMOs office ran the country,always has and that is how it really works- like it or not.

[cybercoma]

Total red-herring. You don't know that I don't have contempt for those things.

If you can justify a government that spends your money and hides it from parliament, then you will justify anything they do. I'm not about to enter into a debate with someone so irrational.

[Dave_ON]

Layton will change Canada forever when he becomes PM sometime later this year. Massive tax hikes to job creators. Massive gas tax increases. I guess only rich people can afford to drive cars. Massive gov't bureaucracies creating national daycare programs, national pharmacare programs and national housing strategies not to mention national transit commissions. These things aren't free my friends. the NDP are selling us a bill of goods that we simply cannot afford.

Where will Layton get the $70 BILLION + needed to fund his pet projects? Why from us silly, the middle class. The largest demographic of suckers our society has.

I would actually be in favor of coroporate taxes returning to last years levels. The tax cut was irresponsible and unnecessary, especially if I have to wait until 2015 for my piece of the pie.

Also it should be noted, that Mr. Harper during his tenure has increased government bureaucracy and increased his security staff exponentially. Though in Mr. Harper's defense he's not as scrappy as Chretien who in large part handled his own security with his bare hands. Let's talk fighter jets that we still don't have accurate numbers on, or prisons we also don't have a price tag for. The magic of CPC economics is we'll increase spending while lowering taxes...

[ToadBrother]

You don't give any crdit to Canadians, they can see that every member is in contempt of Parliament every day. Most of them rarely show up, those that do spend their camera time braying like hyenas upon command of their House leaders, no exceptions permitted.

Where is your outrage for that? Where is your rant on that contempt?

Are you pretending that it wasn't like that during the Chretien years too? The PMOs office ran the country,always has and that is how it really works- like it or not.

So we're back to the "Harper is no worse than Chretien" bit. But Harper is, you see, because Chretien had a majority willing to put up with his style of management. Harper did not. Parliament is Harper's boss, without limit or boundary, and considering that we're likely going to see Harper returned with a minority, isn't it about time Harper and his supporters like you accept that in our system of government, government is always under thumb of Parliament.

[daniel]

Under FPTP it's also possible the NDP wins with more seats and less votes that the Conservatives. In a case like that, look for Harper to dig out his 2004 Coalition Agreement with the Bloc and NDP but replace "NDP" with "Liberal".

[wyly]

I think if the Liberals enter a formal alliance with the NDP or Tories, that slow death will be rather quick.

the ndp formed supporting alliances in the past with the liberals and they're still here...

[cybercoma]

Under FPTP it's also possible the NDP wins with more seats and less votes that the Conservatives. In a case like that, look for Harper to dig out his 2004 Coalition Agreement with the Bloc and NDP but replace "NDP" with "Liberal".

This would be a fantastic and hilarious twist to the story!

[ToadBrother]

the ndp formed supporting alliances in the past with the liberals and they're still here...

Except this time the shoe is on the other foot, and I have to think the Liberals are looking at all of this and thinking to themselves "If we cozy up to anyone, will they just absorb us?"

[Molly]

Under FPTP it's also possible the NDP wins with more seats and less votes that the Conservatives. In a case like that, look for Harper to dig out his 2004 Coalition Agreement with the Bloc and NDP but replace "NDP" with "Liberal".

'Plausible deniability' would be out of the question.

[wyly]

Except this time the shoe is on the other foot, and I have to think the Liberals are looking at all of this and thinking to themselves "If we cozy up to anyone, will they just absorb us?"

ya I know the fear but I just don't think it will happen as long as the liberals carve out their own distinct centerist policy...that fear was also a concern for ndp supporters when they cozied up with the liberals but it just never happened...