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Layton's NPD Surging in Quebec


How many seats will the NPD win in Quebec  

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NPD surprises in Quebec?

So let's look at Outremont first. In 2006, they got 17.2% of the votes. In 2008, it was 39.53%! Yes, as I said, there was a by-election between the two and there is the star effect of having Thomas Mulcair, former cabinet minister for the PLQ. But still, what it shows is that the NDP can jump greatly in some ridings.

Therefore, I think the best thing to do is to look at the projections in each ridings, and every where the NDP was already high in 2008 (by high, I mean over 15-20%), we could expect a larger swing than projected. Also, using the model, you can simply increase the swing for the NDP and input the Bloc lower. This way, you can see where the Bloc is less resilient.



-Hull-Aylmer (yeah yeah there was a poll in this riding showing the NDP behind, but it was a small sample and it was 2 weeks ago)


-Brossard-La Prairie (mostly because Liberals and Bloc were at "only" 30% last time)




As I've said, winning more than the first two ridings would require very large swings in these ridings. But if surprises do happen on May 2nd, I think this list is a safe bet. Basically, we are looking at ridings where the NDP was already above its provincial average and where the Liberals and Bloc are pretty close. This way, by stealing votes from both parties, the NDP can win.


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History of NPD support in Quebec

2000 GE - 1.8%

2004 GE - 4.6%, Up 2.8%

2006 GE - 7.5%, Up 2.9%

2008 GE - 12.2%, Up 4.7%

History of NDP Recent polling in Quebec

EKOS Apr 15 - 24%

Nanos Apr 16 - 19.9%

How many ridings have they won? And indicate which victory(ies) was (were) in bi-elections?

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Unlike the other parties, the NDP has no bastion of support in Quebec. The party’s vote is a mile wide and an inch deep. Even if popular support grows substantially, it’s spread so thinly the party still can’t win a significant numbers of seats without a very drastic change in the political landscape.


They will be fortunate to hold their one seat..

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Liberals are in big trouble. Chantal Hebert's column in the Star today said the Libs were going to get clobbered in Quebec. The Libs will be hard pressed to hold onto Fortress Toronto but are under severe pressure. So........their two main bastions are eroding and I'm not aware of any region in Canada where the Libs will actually gain seats. They could easily be pushed down into the 50 seat area.

Short of a game-changer between now and May 2, Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals will take a beating in Quebec next month.

To fully measure their predicament, consider that the Liberal frontline in Quebec has shifted to ridings the party used to take for granted less than a decade ago.

At mid-campaign, the federalist Outaouais region is a four-way battleground and the Liberals will have to fight hard for second place across much of the equally federalist Eastern Townships.

In Montreal, former prime minister Pierre Trudeau’s Mount Royal seat is at play, with the Conservatives hoping that their pro-Israel foreign policy will play well with the riding’s strong Jewish community.

Link: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/975481--hebert-ignatieff-s-liberals-face-a-walloping-in-quebec

Edited by Keepitsimple
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If Quebecois wish to maintain a strategic position in Ottawa, they need to think carefully when they vote. The very worst thing that could happen to them is the real possibility that Harper could form a majority with only a few Quebec seats. There is an ouside chance he couyld get a majority with no help from Quebec, which would mean their political marginalization while supporting an overtly anti-federalist party. That result would be very bad for the Bloc in the next election, as they would have no purpose at all..

They need to vote anything but Tory in Quebec to keep their agenda front and center, and to keep the Bloc relevant going forward..

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In Montreal, former prime minister Pierre Trudeau’s Mount Royal seat is at play, with the Conservatives hoping that their pro-Israel foreign policy will play well with the riding’s strong Jewish community.

I don't agree with that at all. True, Harper is the most pro-Israel PM we have ever had but in the last election the Tories got splattered in Mont-Royal. There is no way they can beat someone with the stature of Irwin Cotler.

Edited by maldon_road
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As opposed to the Jewish community in Halifax?

Hm? I was just asking about the community in Montreal because of this:

In Montreal, former prime minister Pierre Trudeau’s Mount Royal seat is at play, with the Conservatives hoping that their pro-Israel foreign policy will play well with the riding’s strong Jewish community.

I was just wondering how important that particular issue is to that particular community. Wasn't meant to be a comment on the community in other regions.

Edited by Evening Star
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That makes sense... So what to make of EKOS projecting 6 QC seats for the NDP?:


EKOS' polling has been haywire this year. I'm not sure what's happening, but they think that voter intentions nation-wide are shifted several points left compared to the other major polls. I don't think anyone believes their numbers right now.

I'm inclined to just throw out both EKOS and Compas (who are showing the opposite shift) as having undetermined problems with their methodologies, and look only at the others.

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Of course the NDP is going to get glowing reports in the Globe. :rolleyes:

Lots of people living in denial it seems.

Recent Quebec polling for the NPD

Forum Research - 24%

EKOS 23.7%

Edited by Harry
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Forum Research - 24%

EKOS 23.7%

If you think that trifle will earn the seats, you are the one in denial...I will make you a bet with Hardners money....that on election day the NDP will not poll 20.9% in PQ....and they will not win 2 or more seats

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NS has a total Jewish population when University is no in of something like 1500-2000 people spread out geographically in 4 ridings.

What does that have to do with whether they are "especially" pro israel?

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Is the Jewish community in Montreal especially pro-Israel?

Most Jewish communities are pro-Israel. I certainly am.

I assume that Canada's synagogue is generally a pro-Israel one.

Edited by jbg
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Le chef du Nouveau Parti démocratique (NPD), Jack Layton, est en train de devenir la surprise de la campagne électorale au Québec, devançant même Gilles Duceppe au palmarès des politiciens fédéraux préférés des Québécois.

There's no doubt that the Bloc is giving up support to the NDP. Some voters in Quebec are desperate for an alternative to the usual federalist/sovereignist divide. On the right, in certain regional areas, Bloc voters can choose the Conservatives. On the left, Bloc voters can choose the NDP and in particular Layton. Layton's support is a mile wide and an inch deep however.

If the NDP had a leader with a fluent command of French, this election would be very different.


The practical effect of this (because of vote splits) is that Conservatives may be more certain of their seats, while the NDP will elect no one other than Mulcair in Outremont. We'll see what the next few polls in Quebec show but I would be very surprised if the Bloc falls below 30%. This would be the bottom line of their hard core support.

Edited by August1991
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I think Layton is using an approach that a lot of Quebeckers and a lot of Canadians are beginning to appreciate. Layton doesn't want to fan the flames of division that Harper and Dupeppe appear to be doing, as Layton would rather find common ground on the issues that divide. And there is obviously is a growing sense that Layton stood out from the crowd in the debates. As La Presse so aptly put it today - the NPD is on a roll in Quebec.

Layton touts NDP as federalist option in Quebec


Edited by Harry
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