August1991 Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 Here's my current province by province seat predictions. If you try this at home kids, make sure your totals add up to 308. And don't cheat by editing your prediction later in the campaign. BC - CPC: 27, LPC: 3, NDP: 6 Alta - CPC: 28 Sask - CPC: 13, LPC: 1 Man - CPC: 10, LPC: 1, NDP: 3 Ont - CPC: 58, LPC: 30, NDP: 18 Qc - CPC: 9 (1), LPC: 12, NDP: 1, BQ: 52 NB - CPC: 6, LPC: 3, NDP: 1 NS - CPC: 4, LPC: 5, NDP: 2 PEI - CPC: 2, LPC: 2 Nfld - CPC: 3, LPC: 3, NDP: 1 Terr - CPC: 1, LPC: 1, NDP: 1 Totals - CPC: 162, LPC: 61, NDP: 33, Bloc: 52 That's a (bare) Conservative majority. The wild card is Ontario. Here's a fun site for discussion of local ridings: http://www.electionprediction.org/2009_fed/index.php Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 CPC: 153, LPC: 72, NDP: 34, Bloc: 49 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueblood Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 CPC 163 LPC. 62 NDP. 34 BLOC 49 It will be a squeaker. I don't think the electorate will want a minority and the gong show that goes with it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 Here's a fun site for discussion of local ridings: http://www.electionprediction.org/2009_fed/index.php That site is crazy. They're still calling St. Boniface too close to call? They called it TCTC in 2008 too, and Shelly got nearly as many votes as the LPC and NDP candidates combined! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 That site is crazy. They're still calling St. Boniface too close to call? They called it TCTC in 2008 too, and Shelly got nearly as many votes as the LPC and NDP candidates combined! yah they are not great. I like to check out www.threehundredeight.com However I take issue with some of the methodology it is fun to look at and has a lot of info. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadBrother Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 CPC 163 LPC. 62 NDP. 34 BLOC 49 It will be a squeaker. I don't think the electorate will want a minority and the gong show that goes with it The public, as a group, have only voted over 50% for any government about five or six times since Confederation. I think you need to rephrase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted March 29, 2011 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 That site is crazy. They're still calling St. Boniface too close to call? They called it TCTC in 2008 too, and Shelly got nearly as many votes as the LPC and NDP candidates combined!I agree that the site is crazy. I like it because there is discussion for each riding. True, the discussions are not unlike threads here but if you know the riding/region, you can filter the posts and get a sense of the situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 The public, as a group, have only voted over 50% for any government about five or six times since Confederation. I think you need to rephrase. That's a really good point TB particularly in light of all the comments that are being made about the dos and don't of minority governments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msj Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 Might be helpful for people to know that Parliament looked like this last Friday: CPC 143 LPC 77 BQ 47 NDP 36 Ind 2 Vacant 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Visionseeker Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 CPC = 121 LIB = 117 Bloc = 47 NDP = 22 IND = 1 And there will be no coalition. Rather, a CPC without Harper (who will resign after again failing to win a majority) in complete tatters. Another election will be held in Spring 2012 that results in a LIB/NDP coalition government. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RNG Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 CPC = 121 LIB = 117 Bloc = 47 NDP = 22 IND = 1 And there will be no coalition. Rather, a CPC without Harper (who will resign after again failing to win a majority) in complete tatters. Another election will be held in Spring 2012 that results in a LIB/NDP coalition government. May as well, they are the same thing. I love it. The vote splitting, just like used to curse the Conservative/Reform supporters. Plus the Green falls in there further splitting it. Great news for us conservatives. (Note the small c.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
normanchateau Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 Here's a fun site for discussion of local ridings: http://www.electionprediction.org/2009_fed/index.php Not only is this a fun site but it correctly predicted the outcome in 91% of the ridings on the morning of October 13th, 2008, i.e., one day before the election. Here's the link to the ridings that were correctly predicted: http://www.electionprediction.org/2007_fed/index.php Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted March 30, 2011 Report Share Posted March 30, 2011 CPC = 121 LIB = 117 Bloc = 47 NDP = 22 IND = 1 And there will be no coalition. Rather, a CPC without Harper (who will resign after again failing to win a majority) in complete tatters. Another election will be held in Spring 2012 that results in a LIB/NDP coalition government. No way 120 is the Conservative basement right now. Harper would have to kill a baby to fall to 120 seats. I think you are dreaming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted March 30, 2011 Report Share Posted March 30, 2011 (edited) Totals - CPC: 162, LPC: 61, NDP: 33, Bloc: 52 CPC: 136 LPC: 83 NDP: 38 Bloc: 49 Green: 0 Other: 2 Puts coalition out of reach for LPC and NDP. Gives the CPC a minority government again. Voters completely fed-up with federal politics Tuesday morning. Edited March 30, 2011 by cybercoma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 8, 2011 Report Share Posted April 8, 2011 C - 113 seats L - 60 seats B - 35 seats N - 24 seats Too close to call - 76 seats Total - 308 seats http://www.electionprediction.org/2009_fed/index.php C - 153 seats L - 72 seats B - 50 seats N - 33 seats Total - 308 seats http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/ C - 150 seats L - 75 Seats B - 48 seats N - 35 seats Total - 308 seats http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2011/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellowtraveller Posted April 8, 2011 Report Share Posted April 8, 2011 CPC 154 The Cooperative 154 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Weber Posted April 8, 2011 Report Share Posted April 8, 2011 CPC 154 The Cooperative 154 Steel cage match to decide it all?? Stevie 4 Questions vs The Coopalition Collossus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nittanylionstorm07 Posted April 8, 2011 Report Share Posted April 8, 2011 CPC 128 LPC 88 NDP 46 BQ 46 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Weber Posted April 8, 2011 Report Share Posted April 8, 2011 CPC 128 LPC 88 NDP 46 BQ 46 Penn State fan? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nittanylionstorm07 Posted April 8, 2011 Report Share Posted April 8, 2011 Penn State fan? Alumnus! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Weber Posted April 8, 2011 Report Share Posted April 8, 2011 Alumnus! Cool... I'm a fan of Joe Pa... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triple M Posted April 10, 2011 Report Share Posted April 10, 2011 (edited) British Columbia CPC 23(+1), NDP 9, LPC 4(-1) Alberta CPC 27, NDP 1 Saskatchewan CPC 13, LPC 1 Manitoba CPC 9, NDP 4, LPC 1 Ontario CPC 51(-1), LPC 40(+3), NDP 15(-2) Quebec BQ 50, LPC 14, CPC 10 NDP 1 New Brunswick CPC 7(+1). LPC 2(-1), NDP 1 Nova Scotia LPC 5, CPC 4, NDP 2 Prince Edward Island LPC 2(-1), CPC 2(+1) New Foundland and Labador LPC 4(-2), CPC 2(+2), NDP 1 North CPC 2, LPC 1 TOTAL CPC 150 LPC 74 BQ 50 NDP 34 Edited April 10, 2011 by Triple M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellowtraveller Posted April 10, 2011 Report Share Posted April 10, 2011 Steel cage match to decide it all?? Stevie 4 Questions vs The Coopalition Collossus We should just legislate the change now and have elections on the 1st Friday of every month. Dinner and a movie with the missus, pay the utility bills, vote for the latest government, flip the page on the kitchen calendar. We could be the new Italy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 10, 2011 Report Share Posted April 10, 2011 (edited) Close but no cigar perhaps. I don't think it quite that close but this will definitely stampede some Canadians to the oposition parties, which is perhaps the intention of the forecaster. Who knows the games people play. Harper just shy of projected majority as momentum wanes after Week Two The Conservative Party’s momentum is beginning to slow down – and at the worst possible time for Stephen Harper. Were an election held today, the Tories would win 153 seats in the House of Commons, two short of a majority, according to ThreeHundredEight.com’s updated seat and vote projections for The Globe and Mail. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/harper-just-shy-of-projected-majority-as-momentum-wanes-after-week-two/article1978966/ Edited April 10, 2011 by Harry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Circle Posted April 10, 2011 Report Share Posted April 10, 2011 Steel cage match to decide it all?? Stevie 4 Questions vs The Coopalition Collossus How about you have some respect. His name is Stephen Harper. Nobody is bashing your leader. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.