Bryan Posted May 2, 2011 Report Share Posted May 2, 2011 Bryan is always flailing about cherry-picking polls, like Compas which isn't even credible. I didn't think Compas was credible either (and I said so earlier in this thread)... until they explained the difference in what their numbers represent. The left/centre-left are the ones who complain that their supporters are greater in number, they just don't bother to vote -- in ever increasing numbers. You don't think that Compas' breakdowns explain exactly that? It also goes a long way to explaining why pretty much all of the pollsters consistently give the CPC lower numbers, and the other parties higher numbers than what they really get on election day. Forget the numbers WRT to possible seat counts. All Compas' data really says is Conservative supporters are less likely to change their mind, and they're more likely to actually vote. That's a concept that has been fairly well represented, we just didn't have hard data to support it until now. You don't think THAT is credible? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battletoads Posted May 2, 2011 Report Share Posted May 2, 2011 So the NDP & the Cons are basically tied given the margin of error - how many credible pollsters are saying it's tied now? My hunch is Mr Layton will be having a very good day tomorrow. Layton could drop 5 points and still have a good day. I think you mean to say Layton will have a great day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted May 2, 2011 Report Share Posted May 2, 2011 Nanos has released their final data, including separating the 3-day rolling polls into individual days. They also doubled their daily numbers on that last day. Sunday, May 01 CPC: 38.7 NDP: 30.5 LPC: 20.9 BQ: 5.0 GRN: 3.7 OTH: 1.3 http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/Closeout-Memo-2011E.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CANADIEN Posted May 2, 2011 Report Share Posted May 2, 2011 (edited) I didn't think Compas was credible either (and I said so earlier in this thread)... until they explained the difference in what their numbers represent. The left/centre-left are the ones who complain that their supporters are greater in number, they just don't bother to vote -- in ever increasing numbers. You don't think that Compas' breakdowns explain exactly that? It also goes a long way to explaining why pretty much all of the pollsters consistently give the CPC lower numbers, and the other parties higher numbers than what they really get on election day. Forget the numbers WRT to possible seat counts. All Compas' data really says is Conservative supporters are less likely to change their mind, and they're more likely to actually vote. That's a concept that has been fairly well represented, we just didn't have hard data to support it until now. You don't think THAT is credible? Looking at their numbers, they still do not make sense. The Conservatives at 46%?!!? As for the usual lowest showing of left-wing voters on election days... I do not think it will happen to as large as extent as usual today. There is a big difference this time, namely, the NDP is clearly in Official Opposition territory, a motivation to actually go and vote that was not there last time. Edited May 2, 2011 by CANADIEN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WWWTT Posted May 2, 2011 Report Share Posted May 2, 2011 Looking at their numbers, they still do not make sense. The Conservatives at 46%?!!? As for the usual lowest showing of left-wing voters on election days... I do not think it will happen to as large as extent as usual today. There is a big difference this time, namely, the NDP is clearly in Official Opposition territory, a motivation to actually go and vote that was not there last time. Absolutely right CANADIEN. In fact it seems that the opposite is true now towards the liberal and conservatives. I am sure they(cons and libs) will be having a tough time getting people out to vote since they do not have any strong motivation or opportunity in getting majority. WWWTT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CANADIEN Posted May 2, 2011 Report Share Posted May 2, 2011 Absolutely right CANADIEN. In fact it seems that the opposite is true now towards the liberal and conservatives. I am sure they(cons and libs) will be having a tough time getting people out to vote since they do not have any strong motivation or opportunity in getting majority. WWWTT The Conservatives are close to a majority. Very close, so they will get their committed voters no problem. Liberals, less sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hydraboss Posted May 2, 2011 Report Share Posted May 2, 2011 What I'm hoping will not happen... In the 2008 GE, voter turnout was 58.8%, and while we on this board are getting all excited about tonight (I'm buying beer and popcorn) there is still the chance that we may wake up tomorrow and find out that only 59% of people cared enough to vote. Even though that would definitely benefit the CPC, I have to say I would still be disappointed if it happens. To think that there's actually a chance that youth take time away from texting to mark an x would be nice. And for a bunch of whiny bastards that sit on a couch watching "Hoarders" to get off their collective asses and vote for someone (anyone!). PEOPLE OF CANADA! PUT DOWN YOUR HOAGIES! CAST OFF YOUR BATHROBES AND VOTE! I really, really hope that Canadians get out today or these polls won't mean a damn thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave_ON Posted May 2, 2011 Report Share Posted May 2, 2011 Hmm the EKOS seat projection is interesting. Though I seriously question any methodology that concludes the GPC will actually win a seat. However, at this point given all the variables in play, any type of seat projection model is tantamount to electoral voodoo. 1) CPC: 130 to 146 seats 2) NDP: 103 to 123 seats 3) LPC: 36 to 46 seats 4) BQ: 10 to 20 seats 5) GP: 1 seat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nittanylionstorm07 Posted May 2, 2011 Report Share Posted May 2, 2011 Hmm the EKOS seat projection is interesting. Though I seriously question any methodology that concludes the GPC will actually win a seat. However, at this point given all the variables in play, any type of seat projection model is tantamount to electoral voodoo. 1) CPC: 130 to 146 seats 2) NDP: 103 to 123 seats 3) LPC: 36 to 46 seats 4) BQ: 10 to 20 seats 5) GP: 1 seat Why can't you believe that Elizabeth May has a chance in SGI? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted May 2, 2011 Report Share Posted May 2, 2011 Anecdote of the day: I spoke to the elections officer at my poll about how surprised I was at the number of people there. In 2008 there were a lot less. He said, "You should have seen the advanced poll. It was very busy compared to the past and with a lot more young voters too. It was very encouraging. We'll see how it pans out." Looks like the youth is getting out to vote. I'm most interested to see, regardless of the outcome, what their turnout is like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave_ON Posted May 2, 2011 Report Share Posted May 2, 2011 Why can't you believe that Elizabeth May has a chance in SGI? I agree this is her best shot at a riding she's had, the question is, will enough of the GPC supporters turn out? The problem with the GPC is their support is highly spread out, this is certainly their best chance. I guess it remains to be seen tonight, but I'm not expecting her to win, I think there will be last minute change of heart. She's projected in the polls I've seen to lead 45% to 38% to her nearest competitor, however, this is well within the margin of error. Given this election anything could happen, but I just don't see the Greens pulling it off this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nittanylionstorm07 Posted May 2, 2011 Report Share Posted May 2, 2011 I agree this is her best shot at a riding she's had, the question is, will enough of the GPC supporters turn out? The problem with the GPC is their support is highly spread out, this is certainly their best chance. I guess it remains to be seen tonight, but I'm not expecting her to win, I think there will be last minute change of heart. She's projected in the polls I've seen to lead 45% to 38% to her nearest competitor, however, this is well within the margin of error. Given this election anything could happen, but I just don't see the Greens pulling it off this time. I look at how much she increased the Green's %age in Central Nova in 2008, then I look at SGI as a riding. They are way more environmentalist than Central Nova, not to mention the riding polls that have come out showing her ahead. I just think it is a good bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave_ON Posted May 2, 2011 Report Share Posted May 2, 2011 I look at how much she increased the Green's %age in Central Nova in 2008, then I look at SGI as a riding. They are way more environmentalist than Central Nova, not to mention the riding polls that have come out showing her ahead. I just think it is a good bet. Oh I don't disagree this is certainly her best chance yet. Central nova was a silly idea running against a very popular candidate. I just don't see it materializing this time around, but I could be wrong. Who knows how the NDP surge will impact this riding or if the surge is as big as all the hype. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadBrother Posted May 2, 2011 Report Share Posted May 2, 2011 Oh I don't disagree this is certainly her best chance yet. Central nova was a silly idea running against a very popular candidate. I just don't see it materializing this time around, but I could be wrong. Who knows how the NDP surge will impact this riding or if the surge is as big as all the hype. She may get her one seat, but that's about all the Greens will get, and I think, overall, we're going to see their support fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nittanylionstorm07 Posted May 2, 2011 Report Share Posted May 2, 2011 She may get her one seat, but that's about all the Greens will get, and I think, overall, we're going to see their support fall. There has been a lot of rumours of Vancouver Centre going to Adriane Carr. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted May 6, 2011 Report Share Posted May 6, 2011 It was a good election campaign. Congratulations to the winners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbg Posted May 12, 2011 Report Share Posted May 12, 2011 It was a good election campaign. Congratulations to the winners. That was a gentlemanly and much-appreciated response. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted September 10, 2014 Report Share Posted September 10, 2014 (edited) Here's a roundup of all the federal election polls since the 2011 election. I've superimposed lines showing where Mulcair and Trudeau were named as leaders of their respective parties. There's a couple obvious things going on. The general trend for the Conservatives is downwards. This is likely due to voter fatigue after having the same government for nearly a decade. We can see that the NDP got a significant bump from Mulcair being named leader of the party. They were above the Conservatives in some of the polls at that time. However, Trudeau being named leader of the Liberals sent many progressives over to the Liberals indicated by a significant drop in NDP support and an equally large boost to the Liberals.What may not be readily apparent at first is the variability in the Liberal polls. The distance between the dots and the line is much greater than it is for the NDP and much greater than it is for the Conservatives. The polls seem to be all over the place about the Liberals. I'm not relay sure why this is, but may have something to do with the methodology of the surveys. Edited September 10, 2014 by cybercoma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overthere Posted September 10, 2014 Report Share Posted September 10, 2014 looks a lot like a minority govt in 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 2, 2014 Report Share Posted October 2, 2014 The latest federal polling averages have the Conservative below 30%.http://www.parl.gc.ca/About/House/ASOII/05_ASOII_Chap01-e.html#index_11_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 2, 2014 Report Share Posted October 2, 2014 (edited) If you look at those polls, you can also see that the Conservatives, although soundly winning Alberta, are on a downward trajectory there as well, with the Liberals on an upward climb there. It will be interesting to see what happens with both the Conservatives and NDP (Trudeau is eating Mulcair's lunch in Ontario and Quebec) gunning for Trudeau in the campaign next year. Edited October 2, 2014 by cybercoma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PIK Posted October 2, 2014 Report Share Posted October 2, 2014 Imagine a tie between the Harper and someone else and may's 1 seat has all the power. Scary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PIK Posted October 2, 2014 Report Share Posted October 2, 2014 The latest federal polling averages have the Conservative below 30%. http://www.parl.gc.ca/About/House/ASOII/05_ASOII_Chap01-e.html#index_11_2 Trudeau may have peaked to early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 2, 2014 Report Share Posted October 2, 2014 Imagine a tie between the Harper and someone else and may's 1 seat has all the power. Scary. The Green Party has 2 seats. Bruce Hyer is with the Greens now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PIK Posted October 2, 2014 Report Share Posted October 2, 2014 The Green Party has 2 seats. Bruce Hyer is with the Greens now.Thank you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.9a49e1b2f22a6d34a345152c50044aa9.jpg)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.