dialamah Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 (edited) I keep hearing reports of record high turnouts at advance polls so it seems people are engaged this time around. At the Liberal campaign office yesterday, I heard that they have lots of volunteers -- "People coming out of the woodwork" was how it was phrased. I've never volunteered before, and every other scrutineer (of any party) I talked to said it was their first time as well. Perhaps Harper's greatest legacy will be to get record numbers of voters out. To oust him, hopefully. Edited October 12, 2015 by dialamah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
On Guard for Thee Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 On September 22, EKOS reported a 9% lead for conservatives an almost a majority. All other polls were reporting statistical tie between the two several days before and after. That's why I like Poll Tracker as it averages the major polls, and tends to smooth out the the humps and bumps such as you point out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 keep favouring your selectively chosen polls I didn't choose the poll. I'm just commenting on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
On Guard for Thee Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 Perfect opportunities for the opposing team to make fun of them. And, in doing so of course Harper, Oliver, etal, take it out of context so it appears there is only one interpretation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 I didn't choose the poll. I'm just commenting on it. uhhh... you chose to comment on it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 It is clearly an outlier. None of the other polls show this result. It appears to be you who is picking the polls. Yes, I know we're suppose to put more faith in a couple of polls showing the Liberals ahead by a few points. At the expense of Conservatives, despite nothing of note happening during that time, other than a French language debate and a citizenship issue in which 90% of Canadians agree on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
On Guard for Thee Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 At the Liberal campaign office yesterday, I heard that they have lots of volunteers -- "People coming out of the woodwork" was how it was phrased. I've never volunteered before, and every other scrutineer (of any party) I talked to said it was their first time as well. Perhaps Harper's greatest legacy will be to get record numbers of voters out. To oust him, hopefully. Oh the irony! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 uhhh... you chose to comment on it! I understand why you're so afraid of it. It's not a daily tracking poll with no internals provided. It's an in depth poll with significant internals that must be terrifying for Liberals. They're losing in all age groups over 35, and losing men and women. They're getting the younger hipster vote though, so it's not all lost! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadBrother Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 That's why I like Poll Tracker as it averages the major polls, and tends to smooth out the the humps and bumps such as you point out. The Signal is reporting some interesting results. While it is still showing the Liberals with a nominal lead in the overall seat count (134 vs 129), they're giving the Liberals a lot more room to grow (max range up to 169 seats) while they're showing the Tories are stuck, awhile the NDP are at great risk of further collapse. For the Tories this is the nightmare scenario. They can't find anywhere to grow their vote AND they're losing vote efficiency. 308 is a bit more optimistic on the Tories ability to up their share, but even 308 doesn't show them getting a plurality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
On Guard for Thee Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 I understand why you're so afraid of it. It's not a daily tracking poll with no internals provided. It's an in depth poll with significant internals that must be terrifying for Liberals. They're losing in all age groups over 35, and losing men and women. They're getting the younger hipster vote though, so it's not all lost! And that "hipster" vote seems on course send them to Sussex Drive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadBrother Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 (edited) I understand why you're so afraid of it. It's not a daily tracking poll with no internals provided. It's an in depth poll with significant internals that must be terrifying for Liberals. They're losing in all age groups over 35, and losing men and women. They're getting the younger hipster vote though, so it's not all lost! The Tories are extremely unlikely to achieve even a plurality. It would take a considerable collapse in the Liberal vote. You can pick an outlier and try to read what you want out of it, but surely you have to see that even if the Tories recover enough for a slim plurality, they won't survive the Speech from the Throne. Edited October 12, 2015 by ToadBrother Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spiderfish Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 I didn't invent the fact and that is they had the worst record among pollsters for predicting 2011 results. Angus Reid (also indicating a numeric conservative lead) was the best within 1% accuracy and Nanos was second best with 1.4% accuracy from real results. So in other words Angus Reid, which you state had the best accuracy in 2011, also has it a dead heat with the Conserviatives in a slight lead (Conservatives - 33%, Liberals - 31%, NDP - 25%.) Does this not also contradict your bold prediction of the Liberals "marching towards a majority? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 I understand why you're so afraid of it. It's not a daily tracking poll with no internals provided. It's an in depth poll with significant internals that must be terrifying for Liberals. They're losing in all age groups over 35, and losing men and women. They're getting the younger hipster vote though, so it's not all lost! so you like EKOS polling... just the latest one, hey! Notwithstanding the margin of error (for any of the latest EKOS polls)! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
On Guard for Thee Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 The Signal is reporting some interesting results. While it is still showing the Liberals with a nominal lead in the overall seat count (134 vs 129), they're giving the Liberals a lot more room to grow (max range up to 169 seats) while they're showing the Tories are stuck, awhile the NDP are at great risk of further collapse. For the Tories this is the nightmare scenario. They can't find anywhere to grow their vote AND they're losing vote efficiency. 308 is a bit more optimistic on the Tories ability to up their share, but even 308 doesn't show them getting a plurality. Yeah the Tories have their solid base of course, but when that base is locked in around ~30%, then you have to rely on a split opposition vote, in a multi party system. If you tick off enough of the population they gang up on you, you're done, like a turkey dinner. (sorry, couldn't help myself) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 (edited) So in other words Angus Reid, which you state had the best accuracy in 2011, also has it a dead heat with the Conserviatives in a slight lead (Conservatives - 33%, Liberals - 31%, NDP - 25%.) Does this not also contradict your bold prediction of the Liberals "marching towards a majority? You basically discredit yourself on an obvious false statement in this post above. My post clearly says that based on Nanos recent release they are marching towards a majority and it clearly shows that it wasn't my prediction. And here it is: Liberals marching towards a majority based on Nanos poll released October 12 - Yahoooooooooooo Edited October 12, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spiderfish Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 You basically discredit yourself on an obvious false statement in this post above. My post clearly says that based on Nanos recent release they are marching towards a majority and it clearly shows that it wasn't my prediction. And here it is: Nanos....right, got it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dre Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 Yes, I know we're suppose to put more faith in a couple of polls showing the Liberals ahead by a few points. At the expense of Conservatives, despite nothing of note happening during that time, other than a French language debate and a citizenship issue in which 90% of Canadians agree on. Something of note IS happening. People are starting to see this as a two-way race now, and this is causing people who dont want another Conservative government to coalesce behind the liberals. The polls clearly show that trend. If you want to latch onto a single poll then its clear that you are just trying to cherry pick some good news for your party as opposed to using the polls to predict what is likely to happen. Comical really... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancouver King Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 I keep hearing reports of record high turnouts at advance polls so it seems people are engaged this time around. Huge advance poll numbers invariably spell bad news for the incumbent gov't. It is the latest portent a week out that Harper is done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 (edited) Huge advance poll numbers invariably spell bad news for the incumbent gov't. It is the latest portent a week out that Harper is done. Actually CTV reporter (the one hosting Power Play) was saying that it could be good news for conservatives as he saw a lot of seniors in the long line ups and he said seniors usually vote for conservatives so likely they are out to cast votes for Harper (I didn't know seniors mostly vote for conservatives so that was new to me). I believe a higher voter turnout as the case may be this year means a lot of determined citizens wanting to throw away the party in power. Edited October 12, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triple M Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 i wouldn't assume seniors are going to vote conservative. while their general view points might tend to be conservative my sense is that older voters might be attracted to a younger more generational leader. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poochy Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 Where does it go then?. To buy F-35s? To give it to GOP? or to give tax breaks to the rich and corporations? Oh sorry these are conservative plans. Conservative leader now playing the role of a game show host ALSO fear monger among Canadians on Taxes. Politics of Fear monger will never work. It shows the extend of desperation on the part of conservative party. The people I am speaking of, ARE middle class. it is not only the poor anymore who have hard times but middle class too joining the poor as they too finding it increasingly hard to pay for rising costs, frozen salaries and layoffs and hence essentials. If you don't know all these facts then you are living in your own comfortable dream life but seeing others. The GOP? So you bought that nonsense? Credibility 0, you are exactly why we shouldn't let everyone vote Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poochy Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 Absolutely I agree. I just saw Justin Trudeau campaigning in Nepean today. HE IS GOOD!!!. Justin Trudeau promised to work very hard to bring a better government. While he admired past conservative party members and prime ministers who worked hard for the poor and held highest values and promoted Canadian values but he said (and I agree) THIS conservative party has broken ties with a past progressive party and lost the progressive part by wedge politics and personal attacks and politics of fear and undermining Canadian values. Yes im sure he is an excellent empty headed phony, he has been playing one his entire life, style over substance, the informed voter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dialamah Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 The GOP? So you bought that nonsense? Credibility 0, you are exactly why we shouldn't let everyone vote I agree; it would be much handier to disallow everyone who didn't agree with me to vote. I believe that would be Harper's entire plan, if he could manage it ... perhaps by sending people to the wrong place to vote or something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capricorn Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 Actually CTV reporter (the one hosting Power Play) was saying that it could be good news for conservatives as he saw a lot of seniors in the long line ups and he said seniors usually vote for conservatives so likely they are out to cast votes for Harper (I didn't know seniors mostly vote for conservatives so that was new to me). I believe a higher voter turnout as the case may be this year means a lot of determined citizens wanting to throw away the party in power. Seniors turn out to vote in larger numbers than other age groups. You may be interested in this Elections Canada report on voter turnout by age group, especially Figure 3: Estimates of Voter Turnout by Age Group, 2011 Federal General Election. http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rec/part/estim/41ge&document=report41〈=e#p41 It is common belief that a large number of seniors vote Conservative although Elections Canada has no way of being able to report on this. Because they tend to vote in such large numbers, in an election all parties throw goodies at seniors in order to gain their support. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 (edited) are exactly why we shouldn't let everyone vote A true committed conservative supporter or even may be a conservative party member. A dictator, an undemocratic arrogant individual who wants to decide who should or should not be allowed to vote. The more you guys show your nature the more you will go down in the polls and the election day so by all means be my guest. Do post more. No wonder you support the current conservative party of Canada whose leader is playing a game show host and uses the politics of division and fear to scare people into voting for his party. Sorry but this is Canada not a banana republic in some middle eastern dictatorship. Everyone has the right to vote here. Edited October 14, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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