Jump to content

Federal Election Polls


Recommended Posts

The Estimation of Seats on Poll Numbers, Sept. 30 (the 2nd version)

By Exegesisme

The Estimation of Seats of Each Party on the Poll Numbers of Sept. 30

Con% NDP% Lib% Green% Bloc%

national 32.1 26.3 32.2 4.4 4.6

ON (121) 34 21 40 5

QU (78) 20 34 25 1 19

PR (62) 51 21 24 4

BC (42) 30 32 30 8

AT (32) 19 25 49 6

YNN (3)

Con NDP Lib Green Bloc

ES (338) 112 81 129 5 8

I found first liberal would win. Now I guess liberal would win the majority on poll numbers Oct. 12.

The est. of new distribution of seats on poll numbers Oct. 12.

Con% NDP% Lib% Green% Bloc%

Poll

​number 28.9 24.3 35.7 4.8 5.7

Con NDP Lib Green Bloc

seats

ES (338) 79 63 182 4 10

Edited by Exegesisme
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Liberals marching towards a majority based on Nanos poll released October 12 - Yahoooooooooooo :)

Liberals - 35.7%

conservatives - 28.9%

NDP - 24.9%

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151011%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

One more week to go. Liberals surging in vote rich Ontario at 45% over Tories stuck at 32-33% while catching up to Tories in British Columbia at 29%.. And only 4% separates NDP and Liberals in Quebec now at 32.7% and 28.7% respectively.

National Ballot – The latest Nanos tracking completed on the holiday weekend has the Liberals at 35.7% nationally followed by the Conservatives at 28.9%, the NDP at 24.3% and the Greens at 4.8%. • Accessible Vote – Asked a series of independent questions as to whether they would vote for each federal party, 52.7% of Canadians would consider voting for the Liberals, 42.3% would consider voting for the NDP, 38.1% would consider voting for the Conservatives, 26.3% would consider voting for the Greens and 34.3% of Quebecers would consider voting for the BQ.

Edited by CITIZEN_2015
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sweet! The prospect of higher taxes, new taxes and a guarantee by Justin of 3 straight $10 billion dollar deficits is finally within reach! Lol!

If you earn more than 200,000 than you should pay a couple of thousand more in taxes to help those a bit who can't catch up with the rising costs under 10 years of conservative rule with frozen salaries or job losses. It is only fair when we have millions of our children living below poverty and going hungry to school and so many people jobless and many working ones even have to cut on essentials like food and heat and seniors have to cut on medicine and food to pay for rent

And I believe Trudeau's deficit would be 5 billion in third year and a BALANCED budget by fourth year. Initially they have a 10 billion deficit in order to invest in our crumbling infrastructure and create jobs for many jobless. If you are a graduating or a recent college/university graduate you would know how hard it is to land that first job and prospects under Tories is not well.

Conservatives did it to themselves. In spite of years of corruptions and scandals and undemocratic secretive rule they were ahead in the polls by even a couple percentage points (the vote for them as usual coming from religious right and the small rich minority) even before the start playing with emotions (niqag) so they could form a minority government if they hadn't started with the politics of division and conquer (like abusing the niqab issue and going as far as calling other cultures as barbarc practices and proposing snitch lines and stirring anti-Muslim feeling in the country causing even attacks on Muslim women here in otherwise peaceful loving Canada) and fear mongering (saying a liberal election would be disastrous for the economy or like saying Syrian refugees may be terrorists and interfere with the selection) and personal attacks (like saying Trudeau supports genital mutilation which brought boos from large audience) but they couldn't help it because that is what they are.

Edited by CITIZEN_2015
Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you earn more than 200,000 than you should pay a couple of thousand more in taxes to help those a bit who can't catch up with the rising costs under 10 years of conservative rule with frozen salaries or job losses. It is only fair when we have millions of our children living below poverty and going hungry to school and so many people jobless and many working ones even have to cut on essentials like food and heat and seniors have to cut on medicine and food to pay for rent And I believe Trudeau's deficit would be 5 billion in third year and a BALANCED budget by fourth year.

Conservatives did it to themselves. In spite of years of corruptions and scandals and undemocratic secretive rule they were ahead in the polls by even a couple percentage point even before the start playing with emotions (niqag) so they could form a minority government if they hadn't started with the politics of division and conquer (like abusing the niqab issue and going as far as calling other cultures as barbarc practices and proposing snitch lines and stirring anti-Muslim feeling in the country causing even attacks on Muslim women here in otherwise peaceful loving Canada) and fear mongering (saying a liberal election would be disastrous for the economy or like saying Syrian refugees may be terrorists and interfere with the selection) and personal attacks (like saying Trudeau supports genital mutilation which brought boos from large audience) but they couldn't help it because that is what they are.

Right out of the Ontario Liberal playbook. After running Ontario into the ground, they've turned their sights on the entire country. Yahooooooo! Lol.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I haven't seen or read Ontario Liberal playbook (if there is such thing) but if they are promising better lives for average Canadians so be it and they have 3 more years to deliver those promises though I concede that I don't know much about Ontario politics..

There will be a repeat of 1994 election if Trudeau indeed wins a majority. I was a fresh graduate then just coming out of university after 10 years of studying for higher degrees and eager to start contributing but it was hard to land that first job under 10 years of conservative rule. The economy was in recession, high unemployment, rising costs but Chretien was elected as Liberal Prime Minister and though he inherited a huge deficit from the Tories but he was able to save the economy and Canada was booming by late 90's. This time round it is more than the economy which is at stake. It is Canadian values which is based on equality, compassion and kindness and respect for minorities. Racism, bigotry, division those are not Canadian values and not welcomed. Tories have violated Canadian values in my view time for them to go.

Edited by CITIZEN_2015
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I haven't seen or read Ontario Liberal playbook (if there is such thing) but if they are promising better lives for average Canadians so be it and they have 3 more years to deliver those promises though I concede that I don't know much about Ontario politics..

There will be a repeat of 1994 election if Trudeau indeed wins a majority. I was a fresh graduate then just coming out of university after 10 years of studying for higher degrees and eager to start contributing but it was hard to land that first job under 10 years of conservative rule. The economy was in recession, high unemployment, rising costs but Chretien was elected as Liberal Prime Minister and though he inherited a huge deficit from the Tories but he was able to save the economy and Canada was booming by late 90's. This time round it is more than the economy which is at stake. It is Canadian values which is based on equality, compassion and kindness and respect for minorities. Racist, bigotry, division those are not Canadian values and not welcomed. Tories have violated Canadian values in my view time for them to go.

The Liberals have been in charge of Ontario for over a decade. Huge deficits every year. Lowering of the provinces credit rating. Highest energy prices in North America. Hollowing out of the manufacturing sector. High unemployment. The list goes on. They've run the province into the ground following the same policies Justin is promising.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Justin is not promising none of above. It looks like Ontario politicians screw up a lot. Even NDP's Bob Rae was a disaster!!!! But Federal and provincial politics are different. I have confident that Trudeau era will be more like Chretien between 1994 to 2004 rather than Kathleen Wynne.

Edited by CITIZEN_2015
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Justin is not promising none of above. It looks like Ontario politicians screw up a lot. Even NDP's Bob Rae was a disaster!!!! But Federal and provincial politics are different. I have confident that Trudeau era will be more like Chretien between 1994 to 2004 rather than Kathleen Wynne.

You don't remember the national energy issue under PET do you?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You don't remember the national energy issue under PET do you?

NEP was not a good move carried out in 1980 to 1985 and it had negative impact on the economy especially western Canada in particular Alberta likely why Tories still have 60% support there but I don't believe that Justine Trudeau has promised or has any intention of bringing back NEP. So I see it as not relevant to the politics some 30+ years later. Trudeau is not responsible for all the mistakes (and Tories too have made plenty) made in the past by Liberals at both federal and provincial levels .......

Edited by CITIZEN_2015
Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you earn more than 200,000 than you should pay a couple of thousand more in taxes to help those a bit who can't catch up with the rising costs under 10 years of conservative rule with frozen salaries or job losses. It is only fair when we have millions of our children living below poverty and going hungry to school and so many people jobless and many working ones even have to cut on essentials like food and heat and seniors have to cut on medicine and food to pay for rent

And I believe Trudeau's deficit would be 5 billion in third year and a BALANCED budget by fourth year. Initially they have a 10 billion deficit in order to invest in our crumbling infrastructure and create jobs for many jobless. If you are a graduating or a recent college/university graduate you would know how hard it is to land that first job and prospects under Tories is not well.

Conservatives did it to themselves. In spite of years of corruptions and scandals and undemocratic secretive rule they were ahead in the polls by even a couple percentage points (the vote for them as usual coming from religious right and the small rich minority) even before the start playing with emotions (niqag) so they could form a minority government if they hadn't started with the politics of division and conquer (like abusing the niqab issue and going as far as calling other cultures as barbarc practices and proposing snitch lines and stirring anti-Muslim feeling in the country causing even attacks on Muslim women here in otherwise peaceful loving Canada) and fear mongering (saying a liberal election would be disastrous for the economy or like saying Syrian refugees may be terrorists and interfere with the selection) and personal attacks (like saying Trudeau supports genital mutilation which brought boos from large audience) but they couldn't help it because that is what they are.

I dont make anywhere near that but i will immediately pay more in taxes when they take away the tax reductions the conservatives have given me, but hey the money i worked for should have been yours all along.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I dont make anywhere near that but i will immediately pay more in taxes when they take away the tax reductions the conservatives have given me, but hey the money i worked for should have been yours all along.

I am not suggesting the money you worked for should be mine. I am saying that there should be a fairer distribution. How could someone making more than $200,000 sleep at night knowing that there are hungry children going to school, seniors dying in cold or inability to buy their needed medicine or nutritious food, jobless with university degrees unable to start life.

It is my understanding that Income splitting only rewards the 15% top Canadians (though this is a figure I have read I am no expert). More taxes on $200,000+ income only affects top 1% richest. So be it. I am all for it. They have so much that they won't even notice a couple of thousand per year in more taxes and I am sure there will get or give themselves a raise soon well compensating more than the small increase in taxes they will have to pay!!!.

Edited by CITIZEN_2015
Link to comment
Share on other sites

How could someone making more than $200,000 sleep at night knowing that there are hungry children going to school, seniors dying in cold or inability to buy their needed medicine or nutritious food, jobless with university degrees unable to start life.

More hand-wringing platitudes. Is that where you think the money will go? Think again. The people you speak of pay little if any tax. Trudeau is taking from the "rich" to give to the middle class - or so he says......not the truly impoverished. That element of our society is best understood and serviced by government closest to where they live - community, municipal and Provincial.

Edited by Keepitsimple
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I dont make anywhere near that but i will immediately pay more in taxes when they take away the tax reductions the conservatives have given me, but hey the money i worked for should have been yours all along.

Agreed. My wife is in the middle class tax bracket and she'll save a bit in income tax but lose out big time due to the TFSA repeal. No thanks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am not suggesting the money you worked for should be mine. I am saying that there should be a fairer distribution. How could someone making more than $200,000 sleep at night knowing that there are hungry children going to school, seniors dying in cold or inability to buy their needed medicine or nutritious food, jobless with university degrees unable to start life.

It is my understanding that Income splitting only rewards the 15% top Canadians (though this is a figure I have read I am no expert). More taxes on $200,000+ income only affects top 1% richest. So be it. I am all for it. They have so much that they won't even notice a couple of thousand per year in more taxes and I am sure there will get or give themselves a raise soon well compensating more than the small increase in taxes they will have to pay!!!.

How is it fair if the money doesn't go to where you think it goes?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How is it fair if the money doesn't go to where you think it goes?

Where does it go then?. To buy F-35s? To give it to GOP? or to give tax breaks to the rich and corporations? Oh sorry these are conservative plans.

Conservative leader now playing the role of a game show host ALSO fear monger among Canadians on Taxes. Politics of Fear monger will never work. It shows the extend of desperation on the part of conservative party.

The people you speak of pay little if any tax. Trudeau is taking from the "rich" to give to the middle class - or so he says......not the truly impoverished. That element of our society is best understood and serviced by government closest to where they live - community, municipal and Provincial.

The people I am speaking of, ARE middle class. it is not only the poor anymore who have hard times but middle class too joining the poor as they too finding it increasingly hard to pay for rising costs, frozen salaries and layoffs and hence essentials. If you don't know all these facts then you are living in your own comfortable dream life but seeing others.

Edited by CITIZEN_2015
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Where does it go then?. To buy F-35s? To give it to GOP? or to give tax breaks to the rich and corporations? Oh sorry these are conservative plans.

Conservative leader now playing the role of a game show host ALSO fear monger among Canadians on Taxes. Politics of Fear monger will never work. It shows the extend of desperation on the part of conservative party.

The people I am speaking of, ARE middle class. it is not only the poor anymore who had hard times but middle class too finding it increasingly hard to pay for rising cost and essentials.

It goes to government inefficiency and oh I dunno, the CBC? (eg more waste)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Conservative leader now playing the role of a game show host ALSO fear monger among Canadians on Taxes. Politics of Fear monger will never work.

I disagree. It can and has worked, but it doesn't always work. In this case, the Tories have a lot if other things going against them, so they end up sounding shrill and even panicked.

Whether you like the Liberals and their platform or not, you have to admit that by and large they've run a positive campaign. It might also be that the Tories (and even the NDP) spent so long running Trudeau down, insisting he was an immature inexperienced airhead that all he had to do was not screw up and he ended up looking a hundred times better than his opponents said he would. The Tories, instead of handicapping him, gave him a handicap.

I'm sure for years to come analysts will try to figure out why Tory attacks worked so well on Ignatieff, and failed so utterly with Trudeau.

The average Tory will, of course blame the media and ultimately the voters. Partisans are not known for self reflection and nuance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm sure for years to come analysts will try to figure out why Tory attacks worked so well on Ignatieff, and failed so utterly with Trudeau.

It is not to hard to understand. Voters tend to put a party in charge and leave them there until they are sick of them. The voters weren't sick of the CPC in 2011. Now are and any Liberal leader - including Ignatieff would be looking at becoming the next PM today. IOW, attack ads only work when then already capture voter sentiments. When they go against those sentiments they don't work or even backfire. Edited by TimG
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I stand by my seat projections earlier in the week. I anticipated a small Liberal minority government as I believe (my own analysis not from the polls) that the Liberals have the momentum and it will be 30% to 32% versus 33% to 35% in favor of Liberals on election day. I put my trust in Canadian compassion and intelligence. Most Canadians will realize the politics of division and manipulations by then

Even if that is the case that most Canadians will realize the manipulation, why are they still voting for the usual suspects?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I disagree. It can and has worked, but it doesn't always work. In this case, the Tories have a lot if other things going against them, so they end up sounding shrill and even panicked.

Yes Tory attacks worked on Turner too in 1988 (I was a conservative supporter then as it still stood for Canadian values then under Mulroney). They called him a liar in regards to free trade BUT at that time it was Turner who fear mongered on Free Trade. Yes it worked for them in 2011 too when they put fear in voters' minds that global economic instability would mean disaster if there is a change of government. They are following same tactics but I have a feeling this time it won't work. Only time can tell.

Edited by CITIZEN_2015
Link to comment
Share on other sites

it took the Conservatives 6 years to get out of deficits despite their stimulus spending being short term my worry with the Liberal plan is the spending seems long term and if there is a credible plan to return to balance. I think there is a need to the Gov to raise revenue but i'm not a fan of class politics nor do i think tax cuts do much to solve some of our serious economic challenges, Similar to the GST in that it was great politics but unsound policy i dont see how taxing the rich to pay for the middle class is going to kick start our 2 trillion dollar economy

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Tell a friend

    Love Repolitics.com - Political Discussion Forums? Tell a friend!
  • Member Statistics

    • Total Members
      10,712
    • Most Online
      1,403

    Newest Member
    nyralucas
    Joined
  • Recent Achievements

    • Jeary earned a badge
      One Month Later
    • Venandi went up a rank
      Apprentice
    • Gaétan earned a badge
      Very Popular
    • Dictatords earned a badge
      First Post
    • babetteteets earned a badge
      One Year In
  • Recently Browsing

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...