Jump to content

Federal Election Polls


Recommended Posts

Thank Mulcair"s principled but naïve stance on the niqab issue. That he failed to anticipate how his stance would play out in his own home province calls into question his judgement on other sensitive files.

Have you considered that he might have anticipated this and did what he thought was right anyway?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And I am more confused than ever by these polls that one released this morning showing a narrowing Liberal lead (Nanos) and the other showing a narrowing conservative lead (Ekos) both used to show big leads not long ago for their statistically tied leading party and both released today!!!!!.

What's there to be confused about? It's a two horse race now.

Frankly, I think it's anybody's guess what happens next. Will the NDP shed more support? Will it go to the Bloc, or will Quebec get over its two decade allergy to the Liberals? Will the Tories fall back closer to the true base (which I firmly believe is below 30%), or will the voters get gun shy in the final stretch and hand it to the Tories?

Or maybe, we'll end up exactly like this. The Tories in a slim minority of a dozen seats or so, the Liberals hungry to topple them, and a chastened and much shrunken NDP prepared to back them to seize what influence they can, and most importantly, to push the Liberals to put a new electoral system in place that will prevent them from ultimately falling back to traditional levels of support.

My prediction is either a short-lived Tory minority of a dozen seats or thereabouts that can find no support in Parliament and will fall at the Throne Speech, ushering in a Liberal minority with NDP support, or alternatively, the Liberals win a minority outright without the need for non-confidence fuss. I do not see a happy ending for the Conservatives.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Have you considered that he might have anticipated this and did what he thought was right anyway?

An issue that affected only 2 women in 4 years versus forming gov't and positively changing the lives of millions - which one sounds more preferable? Mulcair got poor advice - he would not knowingly sacrifice a shot at gov't over what should have been a minor issue.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What's there to be confused about? It's a two horse race now.

Source of confusion is that opposite directions they show in their polls (Liberals losing the lead in Nanos and conservatives losing the lead in Ekos). I expected both showing one not both losing lead but yes in both cases they show statistical tie. I am trying to figure out who is gaining and who is losing because whoever is enjoying the momentum just 11 days to election is the one who would form the next government. But it is hard to determine that now.

I stand by my seat projections earlier in the week. I anticipated a small Liberal minority government as I believe (my own analysis not from the polls) that the Liberals have the momentum and it will be 30% to 32% versus 33% to 35% in favor of Liberals on election day. I put my trust in Canadian compassion and intelligence. Most Canadians will realize the politics of division and manipulations by then

Edited by CITIZEN_2015
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Source of confusion is that opposite directions they show in their polls (Liberals losing the lead in Nanos and conservatives losing the lead in Ekos). I expected both showing one not both losing lead but yes in both cases they show statistical tie. I am trying to figure out who is gaining and who is losing because whoever is enjoying the momentum just 11 days to election is the one who would form the next government. But it is hard to determine that now.

The distance between the two is within the margin of error, so far as I can see. They are statistically tied.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Conservatives haven't lost the lead on the Ekos polls though. (was responding to a post on page 317). It's a stat. tie, but to say they've lost the lead is a bit of a stretch

No one has the lead because of the statistical tie, so they technically have lost the lead. The lead belongs to nobody. It's tight. That's not a stretch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another statistical tie between liberals and conservatives (Nanos poll released October 8)

National Ballot – Support for the federal parties stands at 33.5% for the Liberals, 31.6% for the Conservatives, 24.2% for the NDP, and 4.6% for the Greens nationally. • Accessible Voters – Asked a series of independent questions for each federal party as to whether they would consider or not consider voting for that party, 49.3% of Canadians would consider voting for the Liberals, 41.4% would consider voting NDP, 40.9% would consider voting for the Conservatives, 24.3% would consider the Greens, and 30.2% of Quebecers would consider the BQ.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151006%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Forum poll out. Liberals in a lead but still statistically tied. Makes sense based on their poll conducted Mon/Tuesday.

I'd post more but I'm on my phone

Liberal lead is larger than the margin of error but i have a hard time believing that they are leading or have that much support on the Prairies

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Prairie numbers are useless. In a 1200 person poll, MB/SK will only have about 120 representatives (+/- 5). Nanos overnight drops 400 respondents and adds 400 respondents. That means SK/MB will only have about 40 respondents between the two of them for any given night. This makes their numbers almost meaningless on a regional level. Sure they weight it, but garbage in, garbage out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Prairie numbers are useless. In a 1200 person poll, MB/SK will only have about 120 representatives (+/- 5). Nanos overnight drops 400 respondents and adds 400 respondents. That means SK/MB will only have about 40 respondents between the two of them for any given night. This makes their numbers almost meaningless on a regional level. Sure they weight it, but garbage in, garbage out.

Honestly its too close to call. The tories arent seeing a bump with their tpp deal. Thats the problem with running only attack ads, turns people off. The tories needed to convey their ideas and why they work, not constantly calling trudeau immature.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Prairie numbers are useless. In a 1200 person poll, MB/SK will only have about 120 representatives (+/- 5). Nanos overnight drops 400 respondents and adds 400 respondents. That means SK/MB will only have about 40 respondents between the two of them for any given night. This makes their numbers almost meaningless on a regional level. Sure they weight it, but garbage in, garbage out.

i was mentioning the Forum poll not Nanos

Edit: isee now that the person i was replying to was referring to Nanos and not Forum

Edited by Triple M
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Honestly its too close to call. The tories arent seeing a bump with their tpp deal. Thats the problem with running only attack ads, turns people off. The tories needed to convey their ideas and why they work, not constantly calling trudeau immature.

Think it's too soon to be able to see any potential tpp bump.

Edited by angrypenguin
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Canadians feel feds haven't done enough to protect Canada's interest in TPP talks: Nanos survey

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/canadians-feel-feds-haven-t-done-enough-to-protect-canada-s-interest-in-tpp-talks-nanos-survey-1.2600820

At this point, I do not think that Canadians even know that much about the TPP. Most people aren't like us!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Tell a friend

    Love Repolitics.com - Political Discussion Forums? Tell a friend!
  • Member Statistics

    • Total Members
      10,712
    • Most Online
      1,403

    Newest Member
    nyralucas
    Joined
  • Recent Achievements

    • Jeary earned a badge
      One Month Later
    • Venandi went up a rank
      Apprentice
    • Gaétan earned a badge
      Very Popular
    • Dictatords earned a badge
      First Post
    • babetteteets earned a badge
      One Year In
  • Recently Browsing

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...