Early Election Predictions

[Visionseeker]

So it looks like the 40th Parliament will meet its end this Friday and the Prime Minister will be obliged to ask the Govenor General for an election writ. The date of the eletion will likely be 2 May, though 9 May is also possible.

Based on all your knowledge, instincts and generally recognized skill at predicting future outcomes, what do you believe will be:

A-) the percentage of popular vote won by each party?

B-) The seat distribution for each party on a national scale?

Lastly, why do you forsee this outcome?

For my part, I will initially keep my opinions quiet so as not to sway anyones response.

Fire away forum pundits. The prize for coming closest to the actually income is the lint found in your belly button on election night and, provided you gloat sufficiently, the grudeging respect of your fellow forum posters.

P.S.- feel free to critique the poll that preceeds this post.

Edited March 24, 2011 by Visionseeker

[William Ashley]

The NDP holds the riding where my house is - but the MP is an American. After my latest jaunt being detained by DHS (to some extent before this due to prior issues with DHS (specificaly CBP, DHS is generally the nice people within the ICE/CBP/DHS enchalada) none the less, I actually almost want to vote NDP this time around but I'm really in a crux because the guy is American and there is no way I can vote for an American in this election unless perhaps they were female, I was married to them and had good marital relations. That isn't the case, and isn't going to be the case with this MP as such it is really a dilema. The bloc doesn't run in the riding - even though I live in a bilungual community that has a French name, and was a home of the couriers de bois. (you can't get much more French than Champlain), none the less I'm stil a little tiffed that I was tortured and imprisoned extrajudicially under a federal and provincial Liberal Government(s), so I'm not sure I could vote for them until I actually feel whole again, they are actually "the better option" but there are massive policy differences. There is no way I could vote conservative because they are even more disliked than the liberals due to their monetary policies, and social policies - although not all bad there have been major major major issues as well as their 'style' of government that reaks as totally corrupt and decrepet. Green Party would be good but I havn't been convinced on thier policy - for an environmental party they arn't doing enough with the environment and came off as more of a pagan party than an environmentalist party. But I would be open minded.

I actually am in the processing as becoming a member of the online party - largely because it is fresh and largely non partisan at this point - I also like the idea of implementing more E-Government.

Overall how I see the election. Hopefully from Mexico or Latin America. I have classes until the end of April then I may or may not be home by the election.

I hope they don't vote conservative - as for predictions It wil be balanced on the next 4 weeks. They conservatives don't deserve the support they are polled at. They can be alright people, but there have just been too many things I can't come to terms with in regard to ruining Canada's position in the world - you might say changing its position but I honestly feel that it is going in a direction that I don't support, and it has been progressive this way since 2001. Its not the Canada I came to love, it is its antithesis. Largely due to the war and foreign policy in general.

Really the bottom line it is unthinkable 'they' could be elected again. Especialy after the courts ruled they cheated in the election that brought them into power.

Edited March 24, 2011 by Charles Anthony
deleted re-copied Opening Post

[Wild Bill]

Well, I'm gonna stick my neck out and predict a Tory majority!

I'm not 100% comfortable with the idea but hey! My personal choices don't matter in this poll. What matters is what the majority of all the OTHER Canadians thinks!

First off, I think the impressions of the various leaders will be key factors. Most Canadians either don't understand or couldn't care less about most of the nit-picking details that amuse us political junkies. The Opposition will try valiantly to make something stick but it just won't work. Their arguments strike the ordinary voter as just too esoteric and convoluted, like something dreamed up by "Sheldon" from the tv show Big Bang Theory.

Very few people at a racetrack actually practice intelligent, handicap betting. Most just vote for the one with the same name as some relative, or even the one "with the cute nose!" Betting houses prosper because intelligent bettors are in such a minority. All the money comes from the people who essentially just make random choices. Few of those people actually win anything and all their money goes to the House. Elections are a good parallel. Most people vote with their heart and not their head.

So far polls consistently have shown that the majority of voters think Harper is more competent, despite his lack of a personality. Ignatieff may rival Dion at having a historically record low public support. Votes will go to the Liberals for their party and a few from being anti-Harper, not for Ignatieff's personal appeal.

This time around, the Tories are running a regionally focused strategy. They've slipped a bit in Quebec but they are likely to lose only a few seats, since they don't have that many in the first place! The Liberals aren't likely to pick up many there either so what does it matter?

Newfoundland is more pleased with Harper since Danny Williams cooled off and will likely deliver at least 4 seats, maybe more. The West Coast is pissed at provincial Liberals and some of that will rub off on their federal candidates since again, the average voter doesn't always understand or care about the difference.

The big gains will come from Ontario. Like Quebec, there is a lot of anti-Liberal sentiment coming from the performance of the provincial party. McGuinty is FAR behind Hudak in the polls! Last time, the Tories came close in a lot of ridings. They've been steadily improving for the last two elections.

Most important could be the "Ford Nation" factor around the GTA! Ford got swept in by a feeling that the Left is just too costly with taxes and too inefficient in delivering services, if not actually corrupt. Not all of this perception is deserved but it doesn't matter! This is politics, after all.

The Tories just have so many regions where they have been improving that a majority government is quite possible. Just as they have a lock on much of the West, the Bloc has a lock on much of Quebec. Harper has only a modest number of Quebec seats he can lose and the Liberals show little hope of gaining any. Like a Liberal vote in Edmonton, anti-Tory votes don't matter much if the Bloc was going to take the riding anyway.

As for who resigns, obviously if Harper wins a majority he won't go anywhere, which is a shame since I could provide a few suggestions. Ignatieff will be toast, however! The Liberals will regroup, re-trench and come out re-born! It will be time for serious leadership candidates to come forward, since the Party should finally have a serious chance at winning NEXT election!

I also voted for Duceppe to resign, simply because he nearly did a while ago. I don't think he wants to stick around much longer and has only remained this long out of a sense of duty.

It will be great fun to pick the bones over this thread AFTER the election!

[ToadBrother]

The West Coast is pissed at provincial Liberals and some of that will rub off on their federal candidates since again, the average voter doesn't always understand or care about the difference.

Why do people keep saying this? Look, there is virtually no one, and certainly no one who votes who thinks that the Provincial Liberals have anything at all to do with the Federal Liberals. The provincial party split with the Federal Liberals twenty years ago. Let me repeat, no one in BC confuses the BC Liberals with the Federal Liberals. If you're a Provincial Liberal supporter, odds are you'll probably be voting Tory anyways. The only people who get confused between the two parties is, well, the rest of the country.

But even if what you said was actually true, the Provincial Liberals have in fact seen marked improvement in the polls since Christy Clark became Premier. The anger was largely directed against Gordon Campbell and now that he's gone, the anger is dissipating rapidly. Beyond that, no one other than ardent NDP supporters will be using their provincial party picks to guide their Federal choices. The fact is that, on a Federal level, BC has sided with Reform and then the Tories for two decades in larger numbers. The NDP and the Liberals have their footholds, larger than in the rest of the West, but still, the Tories gained 22 of the 36 seats, and I expect that near that number will get back in again.

Edited March 24, 2011 by ToadBrother

[Molly]

The people who way that are from Ontario, Toadbrother, because in this province is not- seriously not- politically up to speed. Folks here, for the most part, don't 'get' what's federal, provincial and even municipal/ don't know who is representing them at any of those levels.

(And all my fellow Ontarians can be mad at me for saying that, but it's oh so true. The person who can name their representatives and comment sensibly on them is an extremely rare exception here, not, as in other provinces, the common rule.)

I'm thinking that all of the common wisdom is overstated right now, and that this could be an extraordinary, horrifyingly volatile campaign.

It could end up being a 'virtually no change' outcome, but if it does, it won't be because folks are fully entrenched and almost no one changes a vote, but rather because almost everyone changes their vote and all the switches balance out.

I think those who predict a bad performance from Ignatieff are getting ahead of themselves. He might be crap, but I honestly believe it's too early to tell. We'll have a very good idea by the end of the first week of the campaign, but just now, I don't think so. His potential performance is one of the things that makes this one so very unpredictable. There's a lot of indecision out there, so a lot at stake.

The NDP will lose ground, but NDP leadership will decide whether the support they lose goes to the Liberals or to the CPC. So far, they seem to have chosen the CPC. (Hence some of my disdain for the NDP.)

No real prediction from me yet. I know what I want; what I fear; what I expect, but that's three very different outcomes and all three are well within the realm of possibility. Each is equally a long shot.

[August1991]

Well, I'm gonna stick my neck out and predict a Tory majority!

I voted the same in this poll for similar reasons to yours. The Conservatives may lose a few seats in Quebec (still not certain about this) but this will be balanced out by gains in Newfoundland.

The big gains will come from Ontario. Like Quebec, there is a lot of anti-Liberal sentiment coming from the performance of the provincial party. McGuinty is FAR behind Hudak in the polls! Last time, the Tories came close in a lot of ridings. They've been steadily improving for the last two elections.

Most important could be the "Ford Nation" factor around the GTA! Ford got swept in by a feeling that the Left is just too costly with taxes and too inefficient in delivering services, if not actually corrupt. Not all of this perception is deserved but it doesn't matter! This is politics, after all.

I agree. The Tories need about 10 or so seats to win a majority and I think they'll get them in Ontario, particularly around suburban Toronto.

----

It will be interesting to watch what happens if the polls show the Conservatives around 40% or near majority territory. In the past, NDP voters switched Liberal and even some Tory sympathizers switched because of fears of a "dreaded Harper/Neo-Con" majority.

I think some people are now more comfortable with Harper and even Harper is making explicit references to majority. The scary/fear factor no longer works.

In addition, talk of a Conservative majority in polls may help bolster some ridings in Quebec.

I also voted for Duceppe to resign, simply because he nearly did a while ago. I don't think he wants to stick around much longer and has only remained this long out of a sense of duty.

He quit the Bloc to run as PQ leader for 24 hours until Marois decided to run. I think Duceppe would retire only if a good leader was available. Being leader of the BQ is like being NDP leader without the time zones and without the frustration. Edited March 24, 2011 by August1991

[Wild Bill]

The people who way that are from Ontario, Toadbrother, because in this province is not- seriously not- politically up to speed. Folks here, for the most part, don't 'get' what's federal, provincial and even municipal/ don't know who is representing them at any of those levels.

(And all my fellow Ontarians can be mad at me for saying that, but it's oh so true. The person who can name their representatives and comment sensibly on them is an extremely rare exception here, not, as in other provinces, the common rule.)

Listen to Molly, TB! You are closer to the BC votes than I am and may well be more accurate but as far as Ontario goes I agree with Molly 100%.

[fellowtraveller]

I think it will be a very narrow Tory majority, though another minority is very possible.

And Ignatieff will be gone May 3 if Harper wins a majority.

Iggy is gambling it all this time, he'll either be gone in May or PM of The Coalition.

And I voted 'interprovincial affairs' as a very key issue, but not for the usual reasons...... I reckon Quebec will be a big key in the electoral puzzle. And that is why Jack Layton is promoting and endorsing a colaition already. he knows Iggy cannot say much about it now, and he also knows that Duceppe is on board wholeheartedly for any form of coaltion, the separatiste dream will be partially realized with Duceppe holding the balance of power in the Commons. It doesn't really matter to Layton who wins the seats in Quebec as long as it isn't Harper.

But consider this: what will Quebec voters do when they realize that Quebec via Duceppe has a very real chance to exercise power directly in Ottawa? Why vote Tory, Liberal or NDP and risk that prize?

Even if the Tories pick up seats in Ontario and the East, they may lose their ten in Quebec which could tip the balance tpoward a coalition.

You heard it here first.

[madmax]

I see the Conservatives getting a majority if they can pull off their gambit. If accountability trumps coalition scare, then they are going to come short of a Majority again. The Conservatives always find a way to lose and most of the public don't trust them with a majority. There is a sense of "Give them a majority and get on with it, until they start looking at this group of Conservatives who really are sub par in everyway. The best thing the Cons have going for them is Ignatieff. He is a rookie and could likely pull many of the same gaffes as Harper or Dion did in their first campaigns.

Jack Layton is a master campaigner and as always, is underestimated. A master of the squeeze play and a media savy politician. The more that criticise him the more seats and % he gains. If the Liberals don't gain traction, then the contempt of the conservatives and their disdain for democracy come to the forefront, it may be the NDP that gains from an Liberal Messaging.

The NDP is a party of margins. A .5% change can cost them 10 seats or gain them 10 seats. NDP gains are split in Conservative and Liberal Held Ridings.

THis is an early prediction. I may well change it.

So far the campaigns appear to be the LPC and the CPC throwing mud. Power quality American Style attack adds almost as if written in 1970s US campaigns.

Will the CPC smear campaign gain traction? They are trying to drum up support against 2 year old propoganda pieces. Yet that may bring attention back to Prorogation which had over 85% support against and had the Cons running for cover.

Its early, I saw the media and MLW pundits blow it completely with the NDP on the budget. Seems they were all lost and jaw dropped.

Never read or believe your own press clippings and propaganda. And thats just what happened this week.

Lets see how the government goes down and if the public pays attention to the contempt and corruption.

I think the CPC has money to burn to help form public opinion. But then again, if the public knows that the IN and OUT scam was a direct political action that results in defrauding the tax payer, the ghost of adscam may reappear but in blue clothes.

Interesting times ahead.

[August1991]

The people who way that are from Ontario, Toadbrother, because in this province is not- seriously not- politically up to speed. Folks here, for the most part, don't 'get' what's federal, provincial and even municipal/ don't know who is representing them at any of those levels.

In the case of BC, I think you're wrong Molly. People in BC know that the provincial Liberals are not the same as the federal Liberals.

I'm thinking that all of the common wisdom is overstated right now, and that this could be an extraordinary, horrifyingly volatile campaign.

It could end up being a 'virtually no change' outcome, but if it does, it won't be because folks are fully entrenched and almost no one changes a vote, but rather because almost everyone changes their vote and all the switches balance out.

I disagree. Canadian politics are not like US presidential politics. In Canada, we know Harper, Layton and Duceppe. We've seen Ignatieff for some time now. For heaven's sakes, this is Harper's fourth campaign as leader and Duceppe's fifth. What volatility do you expect?

US presidential primaries are volatile. Canadian federal elections are not - unless we have entirely new leaders.

I think those who predict a bad performance from Ignatieff are getting ahead of themselves. He might be crap, but I honestly believe it's too early to tell. We'll have a very good idea by the end of the first week of the campaign, but just now, I don't think so.

I agree here that Ignatieff is the one wild card in the bunch.

But I've seen the guy now several times in person and umpteen times on video. I first pegged him as a flake but it's obvious to me now that his real problem is that he can't connect with people. You can see that he wants to connect but it just doesn't work. (I happen to think that his inability to connect stems from his flakiness but maybe it's just that he's been away too long.)

I dunno. Maybe Ignatieff will hit his groove and suddenly Canadians will connect with him. I doubt it though.

----

More likely, I think this will be a trenches campaign in which individual ridings will matter. This is not Trudeau in 1968, Mulroney in 1984 or Chretien in 1993. This is Diefenbaker/Pearson in 1965.

The only other prediction is that it will be ugly. The people who hate Harper really hate him. Harper and the Conservatives know that they will get little natural sympathy from the MSM - anglo or franco. (How many CBC journalists/employees vote Conservative?) So, Harper will have to go over the MSM heads to speak directly to potential voters.

[August1991]

But consider this: what will Quebec voters do when they realize that Quebec via Duceppe has a very real chance to exercise power directly in Ottawa? Why vote Tory, Liberal or NDP and risk that prize?

I think you misunderstand Duceppe and the Bloc. They don't want the federal government to work. Ils veulent un pays! In the meantime, they will take what they can if it doesn't hinder the movement of Quebec independance.

In this sense, Duceppe would ideally want a Conservative majority in Ottawa and 55 Bloc seats in Quebec. Duceppe would then claim that this is the true picture of Canada. It would be visible for all. (And the pequistes would have once again a moral/empty/symbolic victory and we'd have another 47 years of tergiversations.)

Even if the Tories pick up seats in Ontario and the East, they may lose their ten in Quebec which could tip the balance tpoward a coalition.

You heard it here first.

The Conservatives are not going to lose all their 10 seats in Quebec. I think that they will keep as a minimum 5-6 and may keep all, or even win more.

Just as English Canada finds Quebecers a stubborn lot, there is a mini-Quebec inside Quebec. Some of the Conservative's Quebec ridings are among these Quebecers that other Quebecers find obtuse. They will neither vote Bloc nor Liberal and as long as Harper gives the candidates a decent home in his caucus, they will vote Conservative.

Heck, I've heard that Andre Arthur may even run as a Conservative!

Edited March 25, 2011 by August1991

[Molly]

In the case of BC, I think you're wrong Molly. People in BC know that the provincial Liberals are not the same as the federal Liberals.

My tangle of typos made my comment difficult to understand, August, but I said nothing at all about the folks from BC, except as non-Ontarians. The BC folks I know have some off-beat political takes, but certainly know what they are about. Ontario stands alone in their desperate need for a universal crash course in rudimentary civics.

[fellowtraveller]

I think you misunderstand Duceppe and the Bloc. They don't want the federal government to work. Ils veulent un pays! In the meantime, they will take what they can if it doesn't hinder the movement of Quebec independance.

In this sense, Duceppe would ideally want a Conservative majority in Ottawa and 55 Bloc seats in Quebec. Duceppe would then claim that this is the true picture of Canada. It would be visible for all. (And the pequistes would have once again a moral/empty/symbolic victory and we'd have another 47 years of tergiversations.)

Nice try, but that isn't what Duceppe would ideally want. The Bloc has already seen 55 seats and a majority govt, and they didn't do anything much with it in terms of realizing their ambitions. That was not overlooked by Quebec voters in subsequyent elections.

Duceppe would kiss Prince Charles' ass at high noon on Rue St. Catherine for the chance to be seen as an indispensable part of a coalition that is the government of Canada. And he may well have it. The Bloc will be very enthusiastic about how the govt works when they are part of it for the first time.

Quebec could really go either way this time. The very worst thing for them that could occur is that they don't elect any Tories, and they still win a majority, which is possible. That could be a gamechanger in Canadian politics.

[Tilter]

My guess---

Tory 163

Liberal/Coalition---136

[Moonbox]

My guess---

Tory 163

Liberal/Coalition---136

Canadian Extreme Wrestling Party - 225

Bloc Quebecquois - 60

Whatever else is left - How many seats are there again?

[Wild Bill]

I see the Conservatives getting a majority if they can pull off their gambit. If accountability trumps coalition scare, then they are going to come short of a Majority again. The Conservatives always find a way to lose and most of the public don't trust them with a majority. There is a sense of "Give them a majority and get on with it, until they start looking at this group of Conservatives who really are sub par in everyway. The best thing the Cons have going for them is Ignatieff. He is a rookie and could likely pull many of the same gaffes as Harper or Dion did in their first campaigns.

I forgot about that, Max! The Tories DO tend to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, don't they?

Last campaign Harper said some dumb things that cost him much support in Quebec. There were other gaffes, too.

As an incumbent he is much more vulnerable to that sort of stuff. Ignatieff looks like the new kid and people often will forgive the rookie. Harper is supposedly the experienced man, having been PM all this time. He's not expected to make newbie mistakes and is therefore not so easily forgiven.

I'm feeling rather liberated about this election, Max! Given that no matter what the result it won't be all that great for this old hippie Reformer! If my choice doesn't win then I don't have to feel any responsibility!