Wikileaks Reveals China ready to abandon NK

[Jack Weber]

We may never know all the names, but the reason was clear. The Soviets told the East German regime "We're yanking our troops out and you're on your own." About the only thing the East Germans could do was pick up the phone and call Bern and say "Hey, cous, mind if we come over for dinner?"

You mean Bonn...Berne is in Switzerland....

[Michael Hardner]

The Guardian

China has signalled its readiness to accept Korean reunification and is privately distancing itself from the North Korean regime, according to leaked US embassy cables that reveal senior Beijing figures regard their official ally as a "spoiled child".

Questions abound:

- is this real ?

- will it change what is happening now ?

- is anyone else surprised by this ?

I would like to believe this is true, as it would show China to be more pragmatic about this than some have suspected.

[ToadBrother]

The Guardian

Questions abound:

- is this real ?

- will it change what is happening now ?

- is anyone else surprised by this ?

I would like to believe this is true, as it would show China to be more pragmatic about this than some have suspected.

I always thought China's largest fear was the collapse of the NK regime leading to millions of North Koreans flooding across the border.

I'm sure there are other issues, like the fact that no matter how you look at it, NK has got nuclear weapons to some degree or another, and that could represent as much of a threat for China as for anyone else.

Still, the NK regime clearly views China as a friendly power. Kim Jong-Il has been there at least once in the last 24 months for medical treatment.

In and of itself, none of it surprises me. I can't imagine China being upset by a Korean reunification, and I'm not surprised that they view the NK regime with some irritation. The real issue is if they're willing to put their money where their (secret) mouth is and stop giving NK so much moral support. They may view NK as a spoiled child, but they still seem to regard it as their child.

That being said, even if China comes on board with the other powers over this one, how exactly is the NK regime to be wound down? How do you convince these guys, and not just the Kims, but the generals, both of which stand to lose everything. Is China ready to give these guys villas and make sure whatever wealth they've accrued is safe, because you're going to give them a lot of carrots to get them out of there.

China's approval of an end to the NK regime is a piece of the puzzle, but by no means the only piece.

[TimG]

I would like to believe this is true, as it would show China to be more pragmatic about this than some have suspected.

First we have Arab nations urging the US to "do something" about Iran. Now China abandoning NK. If things keep going like this it could actually be good news for the US.

[Michael Hardner]

China's approval of an end to the NK regime is a piece of the puzzle, but by no means the only piece.

One would presume they have a plan. Perhaps they have reached out to more pragmatic elements within the NK leadership in preparation for the time when they will make this happen. It could even be Jong Il's son. There are lots of possible scenarios here.

[Michael Hardner]

First we have Arab nations urging the US to "do something" about Iran. Now China abandoning NK. If things keep going like this it could actually be good news for the US.

I'm still wondering when we'll find out the real story of how the Berlin wall fell. I have no doubt that there are some unsung heroes among us who ended the cold war, whose names we may never know.

[bjre]

The Guardian

Questions abound:

- is this real ?

- will it change what is happening now ?

- is anyone else surprised by this ?

I would like to believe this is true, as it would show China to be more pragmatic about this than some have suspected.

I suspect wikileaks has changed and already bought by CIA to give garbage information as another war to make others fight each others.

The excitement of mainstream corporate media already strongly suggested that.

They were exciting even before the document released.

This is strongly different from their previous behavior.

Edited November 30, 2010 by bjre

[nicky10013]

I always thought China's largest fear was the collapse of the NK regime leading to millions of North Koreans flooding across the border.

It is. They really do not want an influx of refugees. That being said, if internal regime change can be done without a complete collapse of the nation, as I've always said and as these documents are now revealing, of course they'd be in support of such a change in direction.

I'm sure there are other issues, like the fact that no matter how you look at it, NK has got nuclear weapons to some degree or another, and that could represent as much of a threat for China as for anyone else.

Bingo. The fact the regime exists adds uncertainty and no nation likes uncertainty. The rhetoric destabilizes the peninsula and even though China wouldn't get involved, a war would be damaging not just to parts of China but the entire region.

Still, the NK regime clearly views China as a friendly power. Kim Jong-Il has been there at least once in the last 24 months for medical treatment.

No doubt, which can be used in a positive way.

In and of itself, none of it surprises me. I can't imagine China being upset by a Korean reunification, and I'm not surprised that they view the NK regime with some irritation. The real issue is if they're willing to put their money where their (secret) mouth is and stop giving NK so much moral support. They may view NK as a spoiled child, but they still seem to regard it as their child.

I think this is the part where we disagree. I don't think China regards North Korea as their child. Not by a long shot. Countries like China and Russia generally oppose measures which try to hold authoritarian countries to account for their authoritarianism. It's not that China regards this as a slight to their relationship with the North, they fear it will set a precedent in regards to potential future actions towards themselves. It isn't a sattelite type of situation. If it was, Russia wouldn't regularly vote against North Korean security council resolutions.

That being said, even if China comes on board with the other powers over this one, how exactly is the NK regime to be wound down? How do you convince these guys, and not just the Kims, but the generals, both of which stand to lose everything. Is China ready to give these guys villas and make sure whatever wealth they've accrued is safe, because you're going to give them a lot of carrots to get them out of there.

The way to do it is through positive open engagement. Pretty much everything else has been tried and has failed. The North Korean regime thinks it's hold on the population is in it's ability to provide relief in terms of food and electricity. If that wasn't the case, they wouldn't be asking for food and electricity in exchange for weapons programmes. Offer to provide assistance with a few basic restrictions and build trust from there. The more we're involved, the more North Korean citizens are exposed to foreigners which deligitimizes North Korean propaganda. Every authoritarian state is usually based on some kind of creation myth. If you destroy the myth, the state can't last too much longer.

China's approval of an end to the NK regime is a piece of the puzzle, but by no means the only piece.

Again, in complete agreement.

[ToadBrother]

I'm still wondering when we'll find out the real story of how the Berlin wall fell. I have no doubt that there are some unsung heroes among us who ended the cold war, whose names we may never know.

We may never know all the names, but the reason was clear. The Soviets told the East German regime "We're yanking our troops out and you're on your own." About the only thing the East Germans could do was pick up the phone and call Bern and say "Hey, cous, mind if we come over for dinner?"

[nicky10013]

We may never know all the names, but the reason was clear. The Soviets told the East German regime "We're yanking our troops out and you're on your own." About the only thing the East Germans could do was pick up the phone and call Bern and say "Hey, cous, mind if we come over for dinner?"

It's a good story and you're not far off but the East Germans were actually the last to the party. Hungary fell first to reformers, then Czechoslovakia. Hungary was a popular destination for East German tourists and when they got the signal from Gorbachev that there wouldn't be an intervention, the new Hungarian communist government decided to hold a "picnic" for East German tourists. Funny enough, it was located at the border fence between Austria and Hungary. They opened up the fence and everyone started streaming through. So many Germans got through that hole in the fence that essentially the East German government collapsed. Hoenecker resigned and the new politburo, completely unorganized planned to let people pass through the wall. A guy by the name of Gunter Schabowski released it early: November 9th, 1989. After the first checkpoint opened up at Bornholmerstraße, they couldn't go back. East Germany fought tooth and nail every threat to the Communist government. Of all the Eastern European regimes, the DDR was probably the most Stalinist. Not surprising, though considering that East Germany was the country most exposed to the West making the communists extra reactionary.

Read The Year That Changed the World: The Untold Story Behind the Fall of the Berlin Wall by Michael Meyer. A short book but with much more detail. Michael Meyer was Newsweek's correspondant when everything hit the fan. Incredibly interesting first hand account along with the requisite history.

Anywho, this is way off topic. Interesting, but off topic.

Edited November 30, 2010 by nicky10013

[Michael Hardner]

You mean Bonn...Berne is in Switzerland....

BAM ! Geography style...

[wyly]

I'm still wondering when we'll find out the real story of how the Berlin wall fell. I have no doubt that there are some unsung heroes among us who ended the cold war, whose names we may never know.

actually there was a documentary on that...E German officials were caught napping, border guards requested orders on what to do about growing crowds the response was slow in comming and then it was too late a sea of humanity took command of the situation...

[wyly]

The Guardian

Questions abound:

- is this real ?

- will it change what is happening now ?

- is anyone else surprised by this ?

I would like to believe this is true, as it would show China to be more pragmatic about this than some have suspected.

N Korea doesn't need China...N Korea's poverty would prove that it get's very little help from china...and it produces it's own arms so I don't know what real pressure China could put on NK, this is not a puppet government...and China stands to lose in a Korean war too,besides potential millions of refugees pouring over it's border and it's unlikely they want to see nuclear dust clouds blowing toward china either...China is all about profit and war is bad for business, S Korea is good for business NK is not...

[moderateamericain]

I got an easily solution for North Korea, Pin down where there Nukes are, Sending in special ops, neutralize everyone, steal the nukes, Invade from South Korea, and talk the Chinese into hitting from the West. It would be over in a week.

[ZenOps]

If North Korea is the "spoiled" child, I'd hate to see the redhead stepchild.