maplesyrup Posted May 29, 2004 Report Share Posted May 29, 2004 Canada is a country of regions, with a low population and a large geography. Attempting to extrapulate seats from national polling figures can be very misleading and inaccurate. If anyone is interested, post any regional polling here for BC, and then we can work on the seat distribution for BC here. We could do the same eventually for each region in Canada For example, the most recent Environics Poll, which came out this week, showed the following percentages of party support for BC: New Dem: 36% Cons: 34% Libs: 27% Oth: 3% Total: 100% Now BC has 36 seats under redistribution so equating percentage support with seat percentages we arrive at the following breakdown for seat projections in BC. My seat projections: New Dem: 13 seats Cons: 12 seats Libs: 10 seats Oth: 1 seat Total: 36 seats My specific seat projections: Lower Mainland: 21 seats New Dem: 7 seats Burnaby Douglas Burnaby New Westminster New Westminster-Coquitlam: Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam: Vancouver Centre Vancouver East Vancouver Kingsway Cons: 5 seats Abbotsford: Chilliwack - Fraser Canyon Delta-Richmond East: Deudney - Alouette Langley: Libs: 9 seats Fleetwood-Port Kells: Newton-North Delta: North Vancouver: Richmond: South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale: Surrey North: Vancouver Quadra Vancouver South West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast: Interior: 9 seats Cons: 6 seats Cariboo-Prince George: Kelowna: North Okanagan-Shuswap: Okanagan-Coquihalla: Prince George-Peace River: Southern Interior: New Dem: 3 seats Kamloops-Thompson: Kootenay-Columbia: Skeena-Bulkley Valley: Vancouver Island: 6 seats New Dem: 3 seats Nanaimo-Alberni: Nanaimo-Cowichan: Victoria: Cons:1 seat Vancouver Island North: Libs: 1 seat Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca: Green: 1 seat Saanich-Gulf Islands: Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alliance Fanatic Posted May 29, 2004 Report Share Posted May 29, 2004 Well I think that BC will probably give a massive majority to the conservative's once again, simply due to the fact that most liberal and NDP support is in the lower mainland and that is about it. Vote splitting on the left may also occur between the liberals, new democrats, and green party, allowing conservative to get a large number of seats. Quote "All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others" - George Orwell's Animal Farm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted May 30, 2004 Report Share Posted May 30, 2004 MS, your seat prediction makes no sense here. AF, can you give us some numbers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willy Posted May 30, 2004 Report Share Posted May 30, 2004 I have seen some BC polls done in the last week. They are showing a high number of undecided. No one will be able to predict BC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted May 30, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 30, 2004 MS, your seat prediction makes no sense here.AF, can you give us some numbers? Could you be specific or is it that you just don't like the results? Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted May 30, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 30, 2004 bump Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted May 30, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 30, 2004 Well I think that BC will probably give a massive majority to the conservative's once again, simply due to the fact that most liberal and NDP support is in the lower mainland and that is about it. Vote splitting on the left may also occur between the liberals, new democrats, and green party, allowing conservative to get a large number of seats. A few fallacies or myths that need to be cleared up about the Green party. It is comprised of a mixed bag politically. The heirachy both federally and provincally are right wing. The federal leader is an ex-Tory, a right winger. There are right wingers involved with the Greens, as well as Liberals and New Democrats (maybe 50-50, right wing, left wing). It is a bit confusing, I know. Historically on election day, the Green party support collapses to around 1-2%. Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kliege Posted May 30, 2004 Report Share Posted May 30, 2004 It really is silly to have ridings like North Vancouver, West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast, South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale or any of the surry ridings going to the Liberals. The truth is that the Liberals are in free fall in British Columbia just like they are in Quebec and Ontario. They will be lucky to hold on to the seat they have now, they ways things have been going for them. The race in British Columbia will be between the NDP and CPC, with the CPC taken all of the ridings outside the vancouver and the suberbs of Vancouver. In Vancouver and Vancouver Island I expect the NDP to pick up seats. Thats is the reality of this election in British Columbia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slavik44 Posted May 30, 2004 Report Share Posted May 30, 2004 in the vancouver sun today, an article put the conservatives at 20 seats in B.C can't remember the rest, sorry. But really predicting B.C is a crap shoot....there are liek 3 places you can predict fairly acuratley right now, Alberta, Quebec, and Atlantic canada. The praries are starting to shape up, but things keep changing in B.C and Ontario. Quote The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible for men to live without breaking laws. - Ayn Rand --------- http://www.politicalcompass.org/ Economic Left/Right: 4.75 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.54 Last taken: May 23, 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slavik44 Posted May 30, 2004 Report Share Posted May 30, 2004 here is the link, http://www.canada.com/national/features/de...66-4d396b824bce Quote The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible for men to live without breaking laws. - Ayn Rand --------- http://www.politicalcompass.org/ Economic Left/Right: 4.75 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.54 Last taken: May 23, 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted May 30, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 30, 2004 First of all, can we dispense with a few election myths surrounding what the current polling results are showing for BC, and deal in the facts from Elections Canada: Latest Environics (May 26/04) Regional Polling for BC New Dem: 36%, up 24.7% Cons: 34%, down 22.7% Libs: 27%, down 0.7% Oth: 3% 2000 Election Results for BC - Popular Vote Cons 56.7% Libs 27.7% New Dem 11.3% Grn 2.1% 1997 Election Results for BC - Popular Vote Cons 49.3% Libs 28.8% New Dem 18.2% Grn 2% Now the key question is how will these significant changes impact on seat totals? Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted May 31, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2004 These polling results since the last election show: 1 Green Party does not appear to be a factor 2 Conservatives have dropped substantially 3 Liberals have not moved 4 New Dem have risen substantially. Times have changed in Canada, and BC as well. This is not 2000. We have a very unpopular right wing premier and government in power in BC as well. The federal election may well not be decided until it gets to BC on election night. Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Ipsos-Reid; May 31, 2004 / May 22, 2004 BRITISH COLUMBIA Cons: 39%, up 8% / 31% (flat) Libs: 34%, up 6% / 28% (down 5%) New Dem: 14%, down 6% / 20% Grn: ? Oth: ? Undecided & Not Voting: ? Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 At first I couldn't understand why the Liberals had decided, starting today, to run ads specifically targeting the NDP in BC. With the release of the latest SES polling results today, showing the growth in national support for both the NDP, up 4%, and the New Democrat Leader Jack Layton, up 4%, and also showing Conservatives and the NDP in a dead heat nationally, Cons 25%, New Dems 22%, within the margin of error, I now understand. SES are supposed to release regional polls sometime today. Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 2, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2004 SES CPAC poll released June 1, 2004 British Columbia Libs: 34% Cons: 29% New Dem: 29% Grn: 8% Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 2, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2004 Summary of polling results for British Columbia British Columbia Company Date-------LI CO ND GR Leger Marketing 02/06/04 29 32 28 9 SES CPAC 01/06/04 34 29 29 8 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/04 34 39 14 EKOS 28/05/04 29 37 30 Environics 26/05/04 27 34 36 Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay Dee Posted June 2, 2004 Report Share Posted June 2, 2004 I think I have seen this movie before. Paul Martin says he'll resign (after forming a new government) if he doesn't keep his promises This is the same fellow who said he wanted the missing sponorship millions hearings transparent.....stacked the committee looking into the rip off....and brought the hearing to its knees as a result of calling a federal election. It is called "blind trust" he trusts that all Candians are blind to what he has up his sleeve. If present polls are close to being on the money...Ontario voters hold the final results in the palm of their hands. Mind you, you didn't read it here first............... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay Dee Posted June 2, 2004 Report Share Posted June 2, 2004 At the rate things are going...Paul Martin may join that class of short lived national governments, aka Joe Who, John Turner et al. Leger Marketing survey puts voters trust in Martin at 27 percent.....down 12 from before he started out on the campaign trail just a week and a half ago.. Dalton Promise Breaker's budget here in Yours to Discover hasn't helped either.......but folks are upset at a host of issues the least of which is how mad cow was handled and how farmners got the hose, to aging Sea King helicopters, a not the best equipped military, to missing millions, boondoggles, our G.G. budget ballooning from $19million when she moved into " Re-Do" Hall to $41million....... Still think Stompin' Tom Connors should replace her when her five year tenure ends this Fall......either he or Ms. Copps or even Don Cherry since there's a good chance CBC won't renew his Hockey Night in Canada Contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 2, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2004 Leger Marketing regional polling for BC released June 2, 2004: British Columbia Cons: 32% Libs: 29% New Dem: 28% Grn: 9% Oth: 1% Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Hardner Posted June 2, 2004 Report Share Posted June 2, 2004 At the rate things are going...Paul Martin may join that class of short lived national governments, aka Joe Who, John Turner et al. It's still early. The Cons need to absolutely trounce the Liberals in order to get a majority, otherwise they have to promise the moon to the NDP (?!) or the Bloc. Leger Marketing survey puts voters trust in Martin at 27 percent.....down 12 from before he started out on the campaign trail just a week and a half ago..Dalton Promise Breaker's budget here in Yours to Discover hasn't helped either.......but folks are upset at a host of issues the least of which is how mad cow was handled and how farmners got the hose, to aging Sea King helicopters, a not the best equipped military, to missing millions, boondoggles, our G.G. budget ballooning from $19million when she moved into " Re-Do" Hall to $41million....... I don't think people care that much about the curtains at Rideaux hall. Still think Stompin' Tom Connors should replace her when her five year tenure ends this Fall......either he or Ms. Copps or even Don Cherry since there's a good chance CBC won't renew his Hockey Night in Canada Contract. Uh... right. Quote  Click to learn why Climate Change is caused by HUMANS Michael Hardner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 2, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2004 British Columbia Company Date-------LI CO ND GR Leger Marketing 02/06/04 29 32 28 9 SES CPAC 01/06/04 34 29 29 8 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/04 34 39 14 EKOS 28/05/04 29 37 30 Environics 26/05/04 27 34 36 Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 5, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 5, 2004 British Columbia Company Date----------LI CO ND GR OT Ipsos-Reid 04/06/2004 32 31 23 13 ?? Leger Marketing 02/06/2004 29 32 28 09 01 SES CPAC 01/06/2004 34 29 29 08 ?? Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 34 39 14 ?? ?? EKOS 28/05/2004 29 37 30 ?? ?? Environics 26/05/2004 27 34 36 ?? ?? Ipsos-Reid 22/05/2004 28 31 20 14 ?? Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 8, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 8, 2004 British Columbia Company Date----------LI CO ND GR OT UN Leger Marketing 09/06/2004 31 31 26 ?? 12 00 SES CPAC 08/06/2004 31 37 26 05 ?? 21 Ipsos-Reid 04/06/2004 32 31 23 13 ?? ?? Leger Marketing 02/06/2004 29 32 28 09 01 ?? SES CPAC 01/06/2004 34 29 29 08 ?? 19 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 34 39 14 ?? ?? ?? EKOS 28/05/2004 29 37 30 ?? ?? ?? Environics 26/05/2004 27 34 36 ?? ?? ?? Ipsos-Reid 22/05/2004 28 31 20 14 ?? ?? If there is any place where the data is missing, and you know the URL where it can be obtained, please share it with us. Thanks. (218) Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 12, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 12, 2004 British Columbia Company Date----------CO LI ND GR OT UN Ipsos-Reid 11/06/2004 33 27 27 10 14 ?? Leger Marketing 09/06/2004 31 31 26 ?? 12 00 SES CPAC 08/06/2004 37 31 26 05 ?? 21 Ipsos-Reid 04/06/2004 31 32 23 13 ?? ?? Leger Marketing 02/06/2004 32 29 28 09 01 ?? SES CPAC 01/06/2004 29 34 29 08 ?? 19 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 39 34 14 ?? ?? ?? EKOS 28/05/2004 37 29 30 ?? ?? ?? Environics 26/05/2004 34 27 36 ?? ?? ?? Ipsos-Reid 22/05/2004 31 28 20 14 ?? ?? Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 12, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 12, 2004 Ipsos-Reid polling results released June 11, 2004 British Columbia Party/Jun 4/Jun 11 Cons: 33%, 31%, up 2% New Dem: 27%, 23%, up 4% Libs: 27%, 32%, down 5% Grn: 10%, 13%, down 3% Oth: 14%: ?? Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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