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Massachusetts Senate Race


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I think we can call this thing. Brown will win.

I agree, and I think the Dems should have lost, they ran a shitty campaign. Obama you are at fault too, now stop pretending to be at the center if this is what you are getting in 3 year your better go down fighting and start doing things to change America. Screw working with the Republicans they don't want it just get things done.

Small C you are wrong and so many levels.

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I agree, and I think the Dems should have lost, they ran a shitty campaign.
Everybody and his sister is going to analyze this result but as for myself, having watched the odd youtube video over the past few days, I think that Brown was simply the better candidate. In fact, I would say that he was the far better candidate.

In Canada, by-elections usually favour the opposition but I don't know if that rule applies in the US.

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Obama you are at fault too, now stop pretending to be at the center if this is what you are getting in 3 year your better go down fighting and start doing things to change America.
This election seems to demonstrate that Americans don't particularily want radical changes and that a politician/party that makes that a primary objective will not be rewarded by the electorate.

We see the lack of desire for change in Canada too with the failed constitutional and electoral reform referendum.

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See, I tried to warn you guys. I even created a thread called Dems Are In HUGE Trouble. But did you guys believe me? Nope. Instead, all I got was insults and ridicule.

I've said long ago that Harry Reid was in deep trouble. What was I told? I'm dreaming. I sounded alarm bells over Jon Corzine in New Jersey. What was I told? Nothing to be worried about. I pointed out the potential landslide in Virginia. What was I told? A Republican dug his own grave over a 20 year old thesis. And now, about two weeks ago, I sounded the alarm bells once again regarding Massachusetts. What was I told? There was nothing to see here. Coakley's still up big. Talk radio's making a big deal over nothing. Well, all I can say is...

I TOLD YOU SO!!! :lol:

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I happen to think that Coakley will win but the margin will not be large, and the Obama Democrats will rightly interpret this as a strong wake-up call. I don't think that Obama will change his ideology or programme. But he will change his tactics.
August,

I have not done a statistical analysis of your election predictions but I have noticed that the opposite of what you predict seems to come true. Keep in mind that being consistently wrong is as interesting as being consistently right....

Edited by Riverwind
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See, I tried to warn you guys. I even created a thread called Dems Are In HUGE Trouble. But did you guys believe me? Nope. Instead, all I got was insults and ridicule.

I've said long ago that Harry Reid was in deep trouble. What was I told? I'm dreaming. I sounded alarm bells over Jon Corzine in New Jersey. What was I told? Nothing to be worried about. I pointed out the potential landslide in Virginia. What was I told? A Republican dug his own grave over a 20 year old thesis. And now, about two weeks ago, I sounded the alarm bells once again regarding Massachusetts. What was I told? There was nothing to see here. Coakley's still up big. Talk radio's making a big deal over nothing. Well, all I can say is...

I TOLD YOU SO!!! :lol:

You called that presidential election so good too. Shady you don't get to say I told you so when Republicans win just as I don't get to say it when Dems win. Every election we are both going to stand on opposites sides of the line and pretend no matter how far we are behind that our guy is going to win. That is life.

Dems are in big trouble you are right, and that is because their base is gone. Where did it go? It stopped showing up becuase they aren't doing what they said. Progressive policies please, stop listening to Joe Lieberman, bring back the Filibuster that if you want to do you have to stand up and do it. Run the country like it should be run. That is the lesson.

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This election seems to demonstrate that Americans don't particularily want radical changes and that a politician/party that makes that a primary objective will not be rewarded by the electorate.

We see the lack of desire for change in Canada too with the failed constitutional and electoral reform referendum.

It really doesn't, it shows us your base will stay home if you don't play to them. Karl Rove of all people said "You get your base out and try to keep the other guys away, that way swing voters don't matter." It worked for him.

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August,

I have not done a statistical analysis of your election predictions but I have noticed that the opposite of what you predict seems to come true. Keep in mind that being consistently wrong is as interesting as being consistently right....

Even three days ago, this was a close race. I think I got the tendency right.

I was wrong on the US 2008 election until a week or so before voting. I was wrong on the Montreal municipal election although I got the tendency right there too.

Riverwind, this is an Internet forum and so it's more fun making open, specific predictions. I notice that you don't make any predictions at all.

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It really doesn't, it shows us your base will stay home if you don't play to them.
Winning elections by 'playing to your base' simply sets you up for failure at the next one because your base will invariably be dissappointed with what you can do and your opponent's 'base' will be energized once they realize the consequences of staying home.
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Dems are in big trouble you are right, and that is because their base is gone. Where did it go? It stopped showing up becuase they aren't doing what they said. Progressive policies please, stop listening to Joe Lieberman, bring back the Filibuster that if you want to do you have to stand up and do it. Run the country like it should be run. That is the lesson.

It was big of you to say shady was right in that instance, but I think more analysis is needed to get a feel for the dem base. Fox got a room of about 25 registered Dem voters after they had voted. By a show of hands, I think all of them had voted for Obama, but 4 had now voted for Brown. With Dems voting for the other side getting the base out to vote is not the issue. The 4 were asked why they cast their ballot for Brown and the #1 issue was the Medical plan Obama was trying to pass, one guy said, "cram down our throats". I don't think this bodes well for Obama, his hard left style is just not flying.

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It was big of you to say shady was right in that instance, but I think more analysis is needed to get a feel for the dem base. Fox got a room of about 25 registered Dem voters after they had voted. By a show of hands, I think all of them had voted for Obama, but 4 had now voted for Brown. With Dems voting for the other side getting the base out to vote is not the issue. The 4 were asked why they cast their ballot for Brown and the #1 issue was the Medical plan Obama was trying to pass, one guy said, "cram down our throats". I don't think this bodes well for Obama, his hard left style is just not flying.

You said it right there. One guy, another GUY!!! Brown ran a Campaign with a hidden message "I am not a women, and we can't let a women win this seat." Much like Nixon's message in 1968 which was "don't let the colors near the white house." There was a gender divide, and I don't think had much to do with party.

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Dems are in big trouble you are right, and that is because their base is gone.

Not only is their base gone, but independents have fleed the Democrats in every election since Obama began inacting his radical leftwing policies. If you think that the Dems need to go farther left, then you're only going to compound the the problems that already exist for them. Instead of losing independents in this case 70% - 30%, you'll lose them 90% - 10%. I'm not sure how you equate that with more successful election results. :blink:

But by all means, be my guest. It just means Dems will be out of power much sooner than I had figured possible.

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You said it right there. One guy, another GUY!!! Brown ran a Campaign with a hidden message "I am not a women, and we can't let a women win this seat." Much like Nixon's message in 1968 which was "don't let the colors near the white house." There was a gender divide, and I don't think had much to do with party.

I already told you that women have not done well in this regard for Massachusetts. The Kennedy's were also male, and used women for their own objectives.

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....But by all means, be my guest. It just means Dems will be out of power much sooner than I had figured possible.

The Dems have time to regroup, just as Bill Clinton did in 1994-95. All they have to do is kick the crazy progressives to the curb. Back then it meant passing welfare reform, much to the delight of pickup truck drivers.

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Not only is their base gone, but independents have fleed the Democrats in every election since Obama began inacting his radical leftwing policies. If you think that the Dems need to go farther left, then you're only going to compound the the problems that already exist for them. Instead of losing independents in this case 70% - 30%, you'll lose them 90% - 10%. I'm not sure how you equate that with more successful election results. :blink:

But by all means, be my guest. It just means Dems will be out of power much sooner than I had figured possible.

No the problem is centered policies is causing all the left wing voters, and left wing indies to stay home. It is a time to fight, frame the question and so it well. Left wing policies left FRD the most popular president ever. They don't fail the problem is they need to actually pass them or else they seem weak. They should have Crammed health care down everyone's throats this summer then there would be no going back. Seriously I think you need to expand Medicare and see how many people like it when the Republicans try to claw it back from the 55 year olds or the 45 year olds. Just do it.

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