Canadian Political Polls

[Smallc]

The long form is nothing more than a poll....with similar margins for error.

That doesn't make any sense, given the number or responses and the fact that it (was) mandatory.

[M.Dancer]

That doesn't make any sense, given the number or responses and the fact that it (was) mandatory.

Sure it does...not everyone gets the long form, cities are over represented and there for the responses are weighted and extrapolations are made....and of course with all statistical endeavours, there is a margin of error.

[Keepitsimple]

Do you realize how big of a margin of error 3% 19 times out of 20 is? The census has to be far better, within tenths of a percent if not hundredths, in order for the data to be useful.

Guess what - the bigger the sampling, the lower the margin of error - or so the polling firms say.....so I think you'll get your wish, it'll be far better.

[Smallc]

Guess what - the bigger the sampling, the lower the margin of error - or so the polling firms say.....so I think you'll get your wish, it'll be far better.

When it's voluntary, there's a certain component that you can't eliminate.

[LastViking]

A quiet summer. TrendLines Research gives Harper a 133-97 seat projection lead over Ignatieff, had a writ been dropped in early August. And when this result is averaged with the seven other models, their riding projection chart shows the Conservatives have a 133-86 lead over the Liberal Party.

Their Australia projection for today's snap election is: Labor 78 & Lib/Nat Coalition 69

And Canadian home prices have dropped $17k since peak in May ... $79k to go!

Edited August 21, 2010 by LastViking

[ToadBrother]

A quiet summer. TrendLines Research gives Harper a 133-97 seat projection lead over Ignatieff, had a writ been dropped in early August. And when this result is averaged with the seven other models, their riding projection chart shows the Conservatives have a 133-86 lead over the Liberal Party.

Their Australia projection for today's snap election is: Labor 78 & Lib/Nat Coalition 69

And Canadian home prices have dropped $17k since peak in May ... $79k to go!

If that was their projection for the Australian poll, boy were they wrong. The two main parties are tied.

[waldo]

from today's EKOS poll:

* Conservatives: 29.4%

* Liberals: 29.1%

* NDP: 15.7%

* Green: 13%

* Bloc: 10.9%

* Other: 2%

[nicky10013]

from today's EKOS poll:

* Conservatives: 29.4%

* Liberals: 29.1%

* NDP: 15.7%

* Green: 13%

* Bloc: 10.9%

* Other: 2%

Seat projection:

Liberal: 110

Conservative: 100

Bloc: 60

NDP: 34

Green: 3

[Smallc]

Seat projection:

Liberal: 110

Conservative: 100

Bloc: 60

NDP: 34

Green: 3

If it weren't for those Bloc numbers, I'd say that it was time to pull the plug....or course, I think that the opinion of Ignatieff that Quebecers have will only get better.

[M.Dancer]

Seat projection:

Liberal: 110

Conservative: 100

Bloc: 60

NDP: 34

Green: 3

Any projection that gives the greens a seat is worthless.

[nicky10013]

Any projection that gives the greens a seat is worthless.

Hahahahaha. They're at 13% in the polls and have been hovering close to that for a while. It should be no surprise that they'll eventually win one or two seats. Look at the difference between the Dippers and the Greens. The difference between 13% and 15% is 30 seats. Yet, no one discounts a poll giving them 30 seats.

[capricorn]

Any projection that gives the greens a seat is worthless.

That, and I also question whether the Bloc would gain 10 seats. I doubt that soft federalists who vote Bloc would stand idly by if they thought the federal Liberal party was about to win government, especially in consideration of the problems plaguing their provincial Liberal cousins. I think a good chunk would vote Conservative just to keep the Liberals in opposition. As Chantal Hebert said in a recent column, the Liberal brand is taking a hit in Quebec.

Charest’s troubles could not come at a worse time for Ignatieff. Their two parties may be separate but when one is in trouble, the Liberal brand takes a hit. To make matters worse, a debate over provincial Liberal ethics cannot but raise the spectre of the federal party’s recent sponsorship troubles.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/851856--hebert-charest-s-troubles-only-magnify-ignatieff-woes-in-quebec

But it's fun watching Liberal supporters jump for joy.

[punked]

Hahahahaha. They're at 13% in the polls and have been hovering close to that for a while. It should be no surprise that they'll eventually win one or two seats. Look at the difference between the Dippers and the Greens. The difference between 13% and 15% is 30 seats. Yet, no one discounts a poll giving them 30 seats.

Only when they are prompted they are at 4-5 in unprompted polls that should tell you something. Their supports aren't motivated enough to go and vote.

[nicky10013]

Only when they are prompted they are at 4-5 in unprompted polls that should tell you something. Their supports aren't motivated enough to go and vote.

Says what evidence?

[msdogfood]

That, and I also question whether the Bloc would gain 10 seats. I doubt that soft federalists who vote Bloc would stand idly by if they thought the federal Liberal party was about to win government, especially in consideration of the problems plaguing their provincial Liberal cousins. I think a good chunk would vote Conservative just to keep the Liberals in opposition. As Chantal Hebert said in a recent column, the Liberal brand is taking a hit in Quebec.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/851856--hebert-charest-s-troubles-only-magnify-ignatieff-woes-in-quebec

But it's fun watching Liberal supporters jump for joy.

Quebec. is just mad at its primer not the Liberals.

[msdogfood]

Seat projection:

Liberal: 110

Conservative: 100

Bloc: 60

NDP: 34

Green: 3

WOW if i ware the PMO i would be thinking i am scrowd!!!!!

[Wild Bill]

WOW if i ware the PMO i would be thinking i am scrowd!!!!!

Only if you had never seen more than one election! Or paid attention to what always seems to happen. Polls are just a snapshot of public opinion. They are NOT any mathematical guarantee!

When the campaign starts, things ALWAYS change! Between elections it's easy to say that you will vote Green or "strike a blow against those arrogant incumbents!" You can intend to do whatever you want because it is just a wish and a dream.

Things are different when you actually have to decide where to cast your vote. You don't think just about how much the incumbent has disappointed you. You also have to think about if the "other guy" is any better!

Historically speaking, for reasons like those mentioned it always seems that the incumbent party gets a bump of a few percentage points as soon as the election is called. Fringe parties also lose some points, since they are considered a waste of a vote.

Also, it is still summer! Pollsters have a hard time getting people away from the BBQ and their beer to answer dumbass political questions!

Harper's public image is just not that of a likable fellow but polls have consistently shown that when the question is "Who would do the better job of PM" he consistently blows Ignatieff away! Unless the Liberals can dramatically change that perception, they haven't a prayer next election!

It's gonna take another month or two before the polls really become significant.

[Dave_ON]

This is not good for the CPC in the least. Their supporters can spin it however they want but the trend has been a downward one for the CPC and has been for quite some time. What this means is Harper won't be calling the election any time soon. If you think that the political strategists ignore summer polls you're mistaken. The plain fact of the matter is the CPC has not managed to recover the numbers it had back before the second prorogation and they never will as the incumbent. What people are failing to account for is the incumbent has nowhere to go but down except under the most extraordinary of circumstances.

I agree with WildBill about the incumbent bump, however that would only mean about 2-3% which is no where near enough, also the incumbent bump only goes for so long, there is a breaking point, and it happens to every party where suddenly people are sick of the current lot and they clean house. That is the greater historical trend that we shouldn't overlook. Is that going to happen this election? Doubtful, but I do know one thing is certain when the election is called, barring divine intervention, the CPC will lose seats and if they manage to squeak in another minority it will be significantly weaker than the current one.

[M.Dancer]

Hahahahaha. They're at 13% in the polls and have been hovering close to that for a while. It should be no surprise that they'll eventually win one or two seats. Look at the difference between the Dippers and the Greens. The difference between 13% and 15% is 30 seats. Yet, no one discounts a poll giving them 30 seats.

The NDP have large voter concentration. The greens have no concentration at all.

[Wild Bill]

This is not good for the CPC in the least. Their supporters can spin it however they want but the trend has been a downward one for the CPC and has been for quite some time. What this means is Harper won't be calling the election any time soon. If you think that the political strategists ignore summer polls you're mistaken. The plain fact of the matter is the CPC has not managed to recover the numbers it had back before the second prorogation and they never will as the incumbent. What people are failing to account for is the incumbent has nowhere to go but down except under the most extraordinary of circumstances.

I agree with WildBill about the incumbent bump, however that would only mean about 2-3% which is no where near enough, also the incumbent bump only goes for so long, there is a breaking point, and it happens to every party where suddenly people are sick of the current lot and they clean house. That is the greater historical trend that we shouldn't overlook. Is that going to happen this election? Doubtful, but I do know one thing is certain when the election is called, barring divine intervention, the CPC will lose seats and if they manage to squeak in another minority it will be significantly weaker than the current one.

Dave, if this was a more normal situation I would agree with you 100%! The difference is, the Liberals have been no more successful at being perceived as a good choice than Harper.

Just as Chretien had the advantage of a fractured Opposition, Harper has the advantage of Ignatieff! The Liberals still look weak at governance and the opinion polls consistently show that.

Personally, I think both leaders have made a mistake by not fostering the image of a strong team. Harper looks like a one-man show just because of his personality. Ignatieff looks the same but only because he HAS NO OTHER strong personalities to show off in his caucus! Due to the last couple of electoral setbacks he has too many new faces that haven't yet had a chance to show their mettle.

Having a strong team can go a long way to get people to forgive some misgivings about a specific party leader. As I've said, neither leader seems to have that advantage, with the possible exception of Jim Flaherty. Unfortunately for Jim, it's all too easy to visualize Harper's lips moving while Jim sits on his knee...

Failing any strong issue seizing the mind of the electorate or any scandal among the higher placed players I'm going to go out on a limb and make a prediction. This next election will be boring!

I predict that the CPC will pick up a couple of seats but not quite enough to reach a majority. The Liberals will also pick up a few extra. I don't expect many to agree with me but I think those few Liberal wins will be in Quebec! I think the trend in Quebec is that as younger voters get more active they will turn to the Liberals. The Bloc is an old man's party, fighting a stereotype of Quebec's relationship to Canada that hasn't been true for decades.

The loser will be the NDP! The few seats each of the other two gain will come from them. Like the Bloc, they too have been slowly looking more and more old-fashioned. The Greens stole the sense of "now" away from the NDP, yet the Greens also don't have enough support in any specific riding to yet win some seats. So I see them as a spoiler in some ridings for Jack and his crew. They will increase their share of the popular vote, of course. If by the next election they get some experienced people and a leader that doesn't appear to be a flake they may well reach the magic threshold and send a few members to Ottawa.

So they'll be a few trends to gnaw over on MLW but essentially as I said, the election will end up with still no real change - a yawner.

Edited September 3, 2010 by Wild Bill

[waldo]

But it's fun watching Liberal supporters jump for joy.

jump for joy? Seems to me there were two posts, very basic information detail... with no associated commentary: one post quotes the poll results, the other post quotes a seat projection. It's no wonder you're such an excitable type if that's what rises to the level of "jump for joy" for you - hey?

[nicky10013]

The NDP have large voter concentration. The greens have no concentration at all.

Seems considering where polls have been broken down and seat projections devised, they have enough to win 3 ridings.

[capricorn]

It's no wonder you're such an excitable type if that's what rises to the level of "jump for joy" for you - hey?

You want to see excitable? Check out the Liberal blogs. Right after that poll was published, there were predictions of a Liberal majority.

BTW, looking at your avatar, with the hair on fire? That's exactly how I picture you sitting at your computer while you post.

[nicky10013]

Dave, if this was a more normal situation I would agree with you 100%! The difference is, the Liberals have been no more successful at being perceived as a good choice than Harper.

Just as Chretien had the advantage of a fractured Opposition, Harper has the advantage of Ignatieff! The Liberals still look weak at governance and the opinion polls consistently show that.

Personally, I think both leaders have made a mistake by not fostering the image of a strong team. Harper looks like a one-man show just because of his personality. Ignatieff looks the same but only because he HAS NO OTHER strong personalities to show off in his caucus! Due to the last couple of electoral setbacks he has too many new faces that haven't yet had a chance to show their mettle.

Having a strong team can go a long way to get people to forgive some misgivings about a specific party leader. As I've said, neither leader seems to have that advantage, with the possible exception of Jim Flaherty. Unfortunately for Jim, it's all too easy to visualize Harper's lips moving while Jim sits on his knee...

Failing any strong issue seizing the mind of the electorate or any scandal among the higher placed players I'm going to go out on a limb and make a prediction. This next election will be boring!

I predict that the CPC will pick up a couple of seats but not quite enough to reach a majority. The Liberals will also pick up a few extra. I don't expect many to agree with me but I think those few Liberal wins will be in Quebec! I think the trend in Quebec is that as younger voters get more active they will turn to the Liberals. The Bloc is an old man's party, fighting a stereotype of Quebec's relationship to Canada that hasn't been true for decades.

The loser will be the NDP! The few seats each of the other two gain will come from them. Like the Bloc, they too have been slowly looking more and more old-fashioned. The Greens stole the sense of "now" away from the NDP, yet the Greens also don't have enough support in any specific riding to yet win some seats. So I see them as a spoiler in some ridings for Jack and his crew. They will increase their share of the popular vote, of course. If by the next election they get some experienced people and a leader that doesn't appear to be a flake they may well reach the magic threshold and send a few members to Ottawa.

So they'll be a few trends to gnaw over on MLW but essentially as I said, the election will end up with still no real change - a yawner.

Wow. The CPC loses almost 10 points none of which they've been able to gain back and you have them PICKING UP SEATS?

I think the general comment here is that, you're right, movement doesn't happen until the writ has been dropped. However, the stastical trend, not even from just the summer, but from the last prorgation has been that there has been a general ceiling on Conservative support. They haven't been able to crack 32% in any meaningful way. Most of the support hasn't gone to any party, rather, they've sat in the undecided column. It hasn't flowed into the Liberal Party, but is that a rejection of the party? No, I think that's a reflection that the platform hasn't been released yet and there are few policies on which to judge them. That will absolutely 100% change, especially during the election period. Since it hasn't reverted to normal, unless there's an absolute disaster on the campaign trail, I doubt any of those undecideds will end up voting CPC.

So, what do you have? You have a CPC with a ceiling of votes and a Liberal Party that's tied with them that's upwardly mobile. Considering that the Liberals pulled off the summer tour essentially without a hitch, I don't see the campaign being a problem. Indeed, the debates will be incredibly interesting to watch. Really, given all the statistical trends, the newspaper reports, the editorials, the gaffes, the fact that Harper wasn't likeably to begin with, things really are not looking good for the CPC right now.

[waldo]

BTW, looking at your avatar, with the hair on fire? That's exactly how I picture you sitting at your computer while you post.

how nice of you... of course, the caption that goes with it has an extra special attachment for you