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Ignatieff calls it!


Wild Bill

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The longer Harper stays in power, the more he can cultivate his own image, that of the party and the comfort of Canadians. At this point, any thoughts that the Liberals could regain power in any form is wild and rabid speculation.

If you say so. After a number of elections, we'll see if the Tory membership has an interest in continuing.

If the Tories form a coalition with the socialists to avoid an election, he will likely even raise more eyebrows.

It is possible he will prorogue Parliament again until next spring or fall. Wouldn't that be interesting?

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Sounds like some Liberals, including their National co-chair David Smith....are disenchanted with the smartest man in the room. There will be one big, fat rebellion if Ignatieff has mis-judged his call for an election.

There was some grumbling that Ignatieff announced his decision to stop propping up the government at the start of the national caucus meeting, before even hearing what his MPs had to say on the subject.

"As usual, as a professor he is dictating to us and lecturing us," groused one MP.

Ignatieff didn't take the advice of his own national campaign co-chair either, who last week suggested it would be "irresponsible" to force an election at the first opportunity.

Link: http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/090901/...berals_election

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Good luck. Maybe it will be the Liberals who vote the next 79 times in non-confidence as the NDP prop up the Tories.

Yah can you believe voting with the Tories and getting something other then a panel that achieves nothing almost seems not worth from a Liberal Stand point. I agree we have to get a lot more for our one vote then the Liberals did for all of their 79 Dobbin. I just wouldn't sit right with me otherwise.

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Right now my one prediction is that the NDP are going to do very poorly.

I am of the belief that many traditional Liberals voted NDP as a means of expressing their dismay and disbelief that Stephane Dion was somehow their party's leader.

-k

{In the interest of not being sued by the former Non Prime Minister, I should mention that my former pet-name for him was simply a whimsical, affectionate nickname, and was never intended to imply that Mr Dion had at any time literally been a lunar module.}

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Sounds like some Liberals, including their National co-chair David Smith....are disenchanted with the smartest man in the room. There will be one big, fat rebellion if Ignatieff has mis-judged his call for an election.

I'm sure there are some people who are hoping for a poll that has the party at 40%. However, it isn't going to get there if the party is weakened by propping up the Tories.

Let the NDP do it if they can get Harper to agree. My guess is that Harper would face a backlash from his own party if they got support for the NDP. I can't imagine what the price would be but if he was desperate, he might take it.

I wonder if Harper might prorogue Parliament until later into 2010.

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Harper had an entire election and only chose to share his platform on the last days.

I'm not sure how one can even compare those two situations. As "but the conservatives" attempts go, that one is pretty weak.

As for Harper's platform, the main plank was that he wasn't going to throw the baby out with the bath water. In other words: no Green Shift. Where do you think Canada would be if Dion, Ignaieff and Rae (they did run as a team) got elected to government? Do you think Canada would be in a better position?

Edited by noahbody
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I'm sure there are some people who are hoping for a poll that has the party at 40%. However, it isn't going to get there if the party is weakened by propping up the Tories.

Let the NDP do it if they can get Harper to agree. My guess is that Harper would face a backlash from his own party if they got support for the NDP. I can't imagine what the price would be but if he was desperate, he might take it.

I wonder if Harper might prorogue Parliament until later into 2010.

Yah but I will be pissed if we prop up the government and get something terrible out of it.

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I'm not sure how one can even compare those two situations. As "but the conservatives" attempts go, that one is pretty weak.

Is it? Did you think it was a brilliant, simply brilliant! strategy?

The Tories won most certainly but it is doubtful they are going to have a policy they run against an entire election while keeping their policy platform hidden.

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The battle has yet to see the first shot fired. We are running on pure speculation at the moment. This time strategy will be everything, and timing will be a key factor in the tactical release of political information such as party platforms and government announcements. There is no party with any kind of functional lead in the polls. The numbers look very strange right now and are skewed six ways from Sunday. It depends on who you are listening to.

My best guess is that Iggy will become the next Prime Minister.

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The battle has yet to see the first shot fired.

Initial shots will be a campaign of TV ads by Liberals commencing after Labor Day. I'm guessing this will soften voters on the need for the forthcoming election by defining the shortcomings of Harper's efforts. What an interesting turn of events - Liberals able to afford taking the initiative.

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Is it? Did you think it was a brilliant, simply brilliant! strategy?

No, it could only be considered brilliant if compared to the Liberal strategy.

The Tories won most certainly but it is doubtful they are going to have a policy they run against an entire election while keeping their policy platform hidden.

I doubt the Liberals will offer much in the form of hair-brained ideas, so I'd agree there.

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So the country has been in crisis and Mr. Ignatieff has had better ideas that he chose not to share?
Reminds me, in a way, of Richard M. Nixon's "secret plan" to end the Indochina War. So secret that the war promptly metastasized to Cambodia and Laos, to no notably good effect. The plan remained "secret" all the way through the helicopter evacuation in 1975.
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Voters didn't want an election last time. Did yo make Harper face your wrath last time or were you so proud of him?

You predicted an overwhelming CPC majority, mind you.

Though I thought the forecast was bogus from the get-go, a variation of "Harper is scary" or "troops in the streets".

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The Liberals are an extremely flexible party. It's why they've governed the country for most of its existence.
The Liberals are what is normally called a "brokerage party". Similar to Congress I in India, the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, and Italy's Christian Democrats. Parties that are all things to all people and hold power through patronage and ultimately corruption.

Most democracies leave their brokerage parties behind. See excerpt below, link, on subject of brokerage parties such as the LPOC:

Unlike their supposed analogues, the Democrats in the United States or Great Britain's Labor Party, Canada's Liberals are not a party built around certain policies and principles. They are instead what political scientists call a brokerage party, similar to the old Italian Christian Democrats or India's Congress Party: a political entity without fixed principles or policies that exploits the power of the central state to bribe or bully incompatible constituencies to join together to share the spoils of government.

As countries modernize, they tend to leave brokerage parties behind. Very belatedly, that moment of maturity may now be arriving in Canada. Americans may lose their illusions about my native country; Canadians will gain true multiparty democracy and accountability in government. It's an exchange that is long past due.

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No, it could only be considered brilliant if compared to the Liberal strategy.

I doubt the Liberals will offer much in the form of hair-brained ideas, so I'd agree there.

Think the focus will be on the future and how the Tories even when the economy was booming back in 2006 didn't seem to be able to keep their promises on spending.

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The Liberals are what is normally called a "brokerage party". Similar to Congress I in India, the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, and Italy's Christian Democrats. Parties that are all things to all people and hold power through patronage and ultimately corruption.

Most democracies leave their brokerage parties behind. See excerpt below, link, on subject of brokerage parties such as the LPOC:

Unlike their supposed analogues, the Democrats in the United States or Great Britain's Labor Party, Canada's Liberals are not a party built around certain policies and principles. They are instead what political scientists call a brokerage party, similar to the old Italian Christian Democrats or India's Congress Party: a political entity without fixed principles or policies that exploits the power of the central state to bribe or bully incompatible constituencies to join together to share the spoils of government.

As countries modernize, they tend to leave brokerage parties behind. Very belatedly, that moment of maturity may now be arriving in Canada. Americans may lose their illusions about my native country; Canadians will gain true multiparty democracy and accountability in government. It's an exchange that is long past due.

David Frum???

Not exactly a non-partisan opinion! :rolleyes:

And 2005 is not exactly recent.

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The Liberals are what is normally called a "brokerage party". Similar to Congress I in India, the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, and Italy's Christian Democrats. Parties that are all things to all people and hold power through patronage and ultimately corruption.

Most democracies leave their brokerage parties behind. See excerpt below, link, on subject of brokerage parties such as the LPOC:

Unlike their supposed analogues, the Democrats in the United States or Great Britain's Labor Party, Canada's Liberals are not a party built around certain policies and principles. They are instead what political scientists call a brokerage party, similar to the old Italian Christian Democrats or India's Congress Party: a political entity without fixed principles or policies that exploits the power of the central state to bribe or bully incompatible constituencies to join together to share the spoils of government.

As countries modernize, they tend to leave brokerage parties behind. Very belatedly, that moment of maturity may now be arriving in Canada. Americans may lose their illusions about my native country; Canadians will gain true multiparty democracy and accountability in government. It's an exchange that is long past due.

clearly we should listen to David Frum, one of the staunchest Republican Conservatives of the day - a former Bush speechwriter... perhaps we should also review some of his more recent laments on the current declining state of the GOP as it continues to sort through various "psychotic episodes" (his words). Nothing sweeter than to read his summations on why the Republicans were/are so vulnerable to the likes of Sarah Palin... yes, David Frum has choice words for Sarah Palin and the negative implications for the GOP in continuing to foist her upon the American political stage...

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Think the focus will be on the future and how the Tories even when the economy was booming back in 2006 didn't seem to be able to keep their promises on spending.

Neither could the Liberals before them. Remember? :blink:

Also add into the mix the fact that Ignatieff's main talking points have been that the CPC hasn't been spending stimulus $$ fast enough and that EVERYONE should be entitled to 9 week work years with EI.

Only in your own Liberal pole riding world would these be signs of future fiscal restraint...

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It is the same deal we gave Martin, although I bet Harper does not take it. Depends on his Quebec numbers I think.

The NDP really are trying to be the LPC. They’re not running for government they’re running for opposition. They vote against every key Tory bill that if voted down would trigger an election, then criticize the LPC and the CPC for not going to the people. Now suddenly that they get to be the King makers it's ok? Suddenly the people don’t matter? Appetite for the election gone now that a “No” vote on their part would actually be relevant for a change? Where are those principles now? Where's that fighting spirit that prompts them to vote "no" before they've even reviewed the bill?

I think Capricorn is wrong on this one, if the NDP back Harper it'll be to their detriment not their benefit.

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I really doubt that anybody in the NDP or Liberals want to hear anything about any coalition.... but the Tory war machine will ensure that every Canadian hears about it many. many times.

Bet on it.

"A vote for Jack is a vote for Gilles"

I think this would be a strong campaign strategy for the CPC.
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If you say so. After a number of elections, we'll see if the Tory membership has an interest in continuing.

If the Tories form a coalition with the socialists to avoid an election, he will likely even raise more eyebrows.

It is possible he will prorogue Parliament again until next spring or fall. Wouldn't that be interesting?

1) Being in government for an extended stretch - even a minority - is what Conservatives have wanted for many years. Harper's leadership will only be called into question when and if the Liberals form a government - or Harper decides on his own that it's time to step down. It's been a long time since a party had as much loyalty to, and faith in their leader. It's refreshing......especially when compared to the leadership-challenged Liberals.

2) It's laughable to think that Harper would give Layton the time of day.....unless it involved making one or two completely irrelevant and meaningless comprimises so Jack could save a bit of face. Jack's in a gambler's spot...if he believes that Mr. Ignatieff will self-destruct on the campaign trail - which is a distinct possibility - then Jack could pick up more Left leaning votes....but if the Libs are actually competitive, he'll lose votes.

3) Prorogueing Parliament - if that once in a lifetime "coalition" ever happens again, Harper won't prorogue - he'll ask the GG for an election.....but since Mr. Ignatieff seems to have distanced himself from that ploy, it won't happen. The public will not be fooled twice.

4) You said the Conservatives ran the last election without a platform until the last few days: nonsense. They've had the same platform for 5 years - they just haven't been able to get a lot of it through Parliament - Justice legislation (sentencing, protecting children), Accountability (still work to do e.g. Appointments Commission), Senate Reform, removing trade barriers and others.

Edited by Keepitsimple
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Well folks its safe to say that the one political ploy unveiled in recent memory that activated a little public debate was in fact the concept of a coalition last winter. Now you can say what you want but folks were in fact engaged. It was polarizing and it was lively. The thing is that most Canadians belong to no political party and that the largest single demographic is the undecided or unaffiliated citizen. Of that group there is of course the apathetic voter who simple does not participate in the process at all. Now even a bunch of those dudes were talking about the coalition, some for and some against but they were at least talking!

The one issue where all folks can find some grounds of agreement is their hate for high levels of taxation. The big tent has room for all! The way to power in Canada is to find things that are inclusive not exclusive. Any political group can use this strategy to acquire support, but it will take a combination of balls and brains to do it. Once you head down that path there is no going back because your support will evaporate, that is why it isn't done in Canada. Even so, it needs to get done and the rewards could be huge.

They politicians need to find out not only where the band is playing in terms of public support, but they need to find out what song is playing and they need to learn how to play it well to attract the citizens.

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