The Manitoba NDP does it again

[jdobbin]

I can imagine that if there was no equalization, Manitoba would lower all its standards on health, social services and the like since there would be no federal standard and trying to compete with resource based economies would be too costly.

As in the old days, I suspect the province would put people on a bus and send them elsewhere. Likely, Alberta.

[Smallc]

Running out of steam eh?

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/ndp...l-50614802.html

Edited July 13, 2009 by Smallc

[jdobbin]

Running out of steam eh?

Think I've said repeatedly that Doer is likely to win majorities till he dies in office. He is a populist.

His government still has run out of steam in terms of legislation. He also a bit of a hypocrite as was detailed in a story a few weeks ago. The 1999 election rebate should be examined outside of Elections Manitoba. Doer, like Gary Filmon before him, believes this issue is closed. In fact, Doer is making the same argument that Filmon did about not having an investigation.

Eventually Doer was able to pressure Filmon into ordering an investigation and that was the beginning of the end for the well supported Filmon.

If Doer can keep a lid on an investigation, he might win another majority but I imagine the pressure will be back on him in regards to it in the fall.

[Smallc]

Here's the thing though (and the poll shows it). Nobody cares! Elections Manitoba says that it wasn't a crime, and so many people agree with the premier. The issue is closed.

[jdobbin]

Here's the thing though (and the poll shows it). Nobody cares! Elections Manitoba says that it wasn't a crime, and so many people agree with the premier. The issue is closed.

Elections Manitoba thought what the PCs did was not a crime as well. A judicial inquiry thought differently.

As for your contention that no one cares, Filmon's popularity was as high as Doer's. The results of an inquiry changed that. Doer is a hypocrite using the same arguments the PCs did to avoid an inquiry. The issue is not closed.

Or did you think the issue was closed for the PCs as well based on their popularity in a poll? You believed that when Elections Manitoba said what they did was not a crime that the issue was closed? Do you believe that Doer was wrong to demand an inquiry from the PCs? Do you believe that the judicial inquiry into the PCs was wrong to find the PCs guilty?

If you believe all that, then I believe you when you say the issue is closed. It is certainly not believable to hear Doer say that.

[Smallc]

But it seems that many do find it believable...because no one cares. Now that may change, but if it does, it certainly won't be to the benefit of the Liberal party.

[jdobbin]

But it seems that many do find it believable...because no one cares. Now that may change, but if it does, it certainly won't be to the benefit of the Liberal party.

Never said it would benefit the Liberals.

However, it appears based on your stand now that you believe that no inquiry should not have been held in regards to the PCs.

Yes or no?

[Smallc]

I don't know. They are different situations. Perhaps there should be an inquiry, but I'm not sure what good it would do. Even governments that an inquiry finds to be innocent suffer needlessly. I think if there is enough evidence of wrongdoing, then there should be an investigation. There hasn't been enough for the police or Elections Manitoba to step in.

[jdobbin]

I don't know. They are different situations. Perhaps there should be an inquiry, but I'm not sure what good it would do. Even governments that an inquiry finds to be innocent suffer needlessly. I think if there is enough evidence of wrongdoing, then there should be an investigation. There hasn't been enough for the police or Elections Manitoba to step in.

They are not different situations. Both times Elections Manitoba said nothing had happened. Doer believed last time an inquiry should be held. Now, he is giving the same reasons why Filmon did not want an inquiry. And we know that it was only in an inquiry that the information came out.

[the janitor]

First, our system, as opposed to being a republic, is a constitutional monarchy, not a "confederation". Federative principles can also apply to republics and do in the case fo the United States, hence they are the United States.

Second, equalization payments are not federal "welfare" -- they are payments from the federal government to certain provinces to ensure that Canadians have near-equal levels of provincial services, regardless of where they reside. People in Newfoundland work just as hard as people in say, Saskatchewan or Alberta.

Transfer payments are compensation from the federal government to ensure that provincially administered programs are able to meet at least minimum federal standards across the country. Healthcare is an example.

Being from Alberta, let me say that Alberta does not receive back financial compensation anywhere close to what it sends to Ottawa. Not that I support the Conservative government in Alberta, I don't. I think they're incredibly dumb and have been underperforming for decades.

Where it comes to federal politics, it's not like the NDP are even credible. They simply aren't interested in governing.

You'd think that with never having more than a handful of seats, someone would wise up and think, "Gee, our message isn't getting across, maybe we should rethink out platform just a teensy bit, so people don't think we're absolute flakes." I think though that if anyone in the party even suggested that, they'de be thrown out. The NDP are more a federal lobby group for special interests than a party hoping to govern.

For being in parliament as long as they have, they have accomplished two things however: 1) They are the party (so far as I know) which holds the record for being in continuous opposition for the longest period of time, and 2) they hold the record for being in opposition the longest without actually forming the official opposition. Kudos!

At least in Alberta, the NDP leader, Brian Mason is willing to listen to a credible voice when it comes to oil royalties. Not that he'll ever be premier, the Alberta NDP are to stubborn to team up with the Liberals, which is what need to happen to oust the Conservatives.

http://ffwdweekly.com/media/article_images/2540.jpg

Edited August 10, 2009 by the janitor

[Canadian Blue]

Alright hacks, lets get a couple things straight.

The majority of provinces receive equalization payments, that doesn't mean said provinces might successfully run their economies to the point where they'll eventually become have-not provinces. I'd consider both Manitoba and New Brunswick to be success stories in that sense since they are aiming to eventually become have provinces.

It doesn't matter whether you have a PC, Liberal, or NDP, government. What matters is how said government acts on things like taxations and regulation. As it happens the Manitoba NDP are far more competent than their federal counterparts since they are more concerned with pragmatism than blind idealism.

If Alberta receives 4 billion in transfer payments, they still lose over 17 billion to the federal government. It hardly make the province dependent on Ottawa as some people like to claim.

Equalization is obviously necessary in a country the size of Canada, I don't think any of us would want to see a province slip into semi third world status. That being said it has been politicized, look at Danny Williams.

[Canadian Blue]

At least in Alberta, the NDP leader, Brian Mason is willing to listen to a credible voice when it comes to oil royalties. Not that he'll ever be premier, the Alberta NDP are to stubborn to team up with the Liberals, which is what need to happen to oust the Conservatives.

I disagree, what needs to happen is the Alberta Liberals should follow the same model as the BC Liberals. Moving a little bit farther left won't get them anything except a couple more seats in Edmonton. The Liberals had a chance to become a force in Alberta and blew it by selecting David Swann over Dave Taylor.

Dave Taylor's New Liberal initiative was exactly what was needed to renew the ALP. Now we're stuck in the same situation we found ourselves in a year ago, the Liberals have not made any changes to their party that would appeal to more Albertans. It seems like they prefer being a rump party with no chance at power instead of learning from what Laurence Decore did in the early 90's.

Edited August 10, 2009 by Canadian Blue

[the janitor]

I disagree, what needs to happen is the Alberta Liberals should follow the same model as the BC Liberals. Moving a little bit farther left won't get them anything except a couple more seats in Edmonton. The Liberals had a chance to become a force in Alberta and blew it by selecting David Swann over Dave Taylor.

Dave Taylor's New Liberal initiative was exactly what was needed to renew the ALP. Now we're stuck in the same situation we found ourselves in a year ago, the Liberals have not made any changes to their party that would appeal to more Albertans. It seems like they prefer being a rump party with no chance at power instead of learning from what Laurence Decore did in the early 90's.

I'm familiar with the arguments you're presenting, and I think there's some merit to them. But the BC Liberals are just another form of conservative, they never would've gotten in if the BC NDP hadn't made such a mess of things. The Liberals in BC are closer to the old Socreds than liberals. I think the Alberta Liberals (to some degree anyway) elected Swann as their leader over Taylor out of fear of the same thing happening in Alberta. The claim I made in the post above about the federal NDP being more of a lobby group than a party ready to govern I think holds true to a certain degree for the ALP. David Swann has taken some heat for making it appear he;s running a healthcare lobby group instead of a political party.

But at least the ALp is trying to form some type of consensus with the Alberta NDP. Ed Stelmach's tories didn't gain office with a clear majority of votes last time around, so I think it's good to give Alberta voters another option. I suppose though it reallyy depends on which party can make a better case. I have a feeling what might work in the Liberals favour is the downturn in the oil sands -- it's considered "dirty" oil -- and with the economy still in a slump and environmental concerns (the US government for instance, is disallowed by law from purchasing dirty oil) and US trade protectionism raising its head, I don't think the oil boom is coming back completely.

I think the Liberals in Alberta have a shot at governing if they give themselves a good shake up. I was actually hoping Harry Chase would be the new leader, but that's a whole other argument.

I tend to be a middle of the road liberal type guy, but I voted NDP last time around because I thought the New Democrat in our riding had a better chance of beating the PC candidate.

That and the fact Bryan Mason promised me if I voted NDP I could get my own picture taken with Sarah Palin. I should've known the New Democrats weren't going to deliver on that promise.

Edited August 10, 2009 by the janitor

[Canadian Blue]

I disagree, the BC Liberals are not just the old Socreds, they are a coalition of both conservatives and liberals. That's why it's not shocking to find members their party run for either the CPC or the LPC. If the Liberals wanted to govern, they would need to find a way to appeal to those on the right who favour the free market, civil liberties, and a welfare state.

The claim I made in the post above about the federal NDP being more of a lobby group than a party ready to govern I think holds true to a certain degree for the ALP. David Swann has taken some heat for making it appear he;s running a healthcare lobby group instead of a political party.

Agreed, when I was a member of the NDP I couldn't help but look in awe as the federal NDP seemed to ignore everything it's successful provincial counterparts were doing. It seems like economic illiteracy is a point of pride in the federal party.

Often the stigma around the Liberals is that they seem like the lobby for public unions.

I suppose though it reallyy depends on which party can make a better case. I have a feeling what might work in the Liberals favour is the downturn in the oil sands -- it's considered "dirty" oil -- and with the economy still in a slump and environmental concerns (the US government for instance, is disallowed by law from purchasing dirty oil) and US trade protectionism raising its head, I don't think the oil boom is coming back completely.

The Liberals could make a platform devoted to diversifying the economy through more funding towards education and the trades. That could be a huge benefit in both urban and rural areas. It would also show the Liberals are more forward thinking than the current crop of PC's.

But the Liberals shouldn't just take up the stock policies. I'd argue that the Liberals should argue for reform of the HRC's for example to ensure protection of freedom of speech and press. They should also be more prominent in the battle for elected senators, which would resonate with a large number of former Reformers. But once again, I haven't seen any of these moves made by the party.

I think the Liberals in Alberta have a shot at governing if they give themselves a good shake up. I was actually hoping Harry Chase would be the new leader, but that's a whole other argument.

I was hoping for Dave Taylor since he had the best plan for modernising the existing Liberal Party. Unfortunately I haven't seen any real movement to make the party more palatable to the rest of Alberta. If the Liberals don't improve I'd just vote for whichever party was the most likely to gain the seat, whether it be NDP, Liberal, or [assuming Danielle Smith wins] Wildrose Alliance.

Edited August 10, 2009 by Canadian Blue

[jdobbin]

The majority of provinces receive equalization payments, that doesn't mean said provinces might successfully run their economies to the point where they'll eventually become have-not provinces. I'd consider both Manitoba and New Brunswick to be success stories in that sense since they are aiming to eventually become have provinces.

The majority of industrial countries have equalization. It is considered essential in that it is in the national interest to have standards of service that are consistent from coast to coast.

I suppose we could get rid of them but then we would likely see some sort of federal assistance as as a replacement. For example, the U.S. Interstate Highway program is a transfer program to the states.

It doesn't matter whether you have a PC, Liberal, or NDP, government. What matters is how said government acts on things like taxations and regulation. As it happens the Manitoba NDP are far more competent than their federal counterparts since they are more concerned with pragmatism than blind idealism.

This is true.

Some on the right complain about provinces that get equalization but is a federal program set up to meet federal standards.

It is the level of competency of provincial governments that should be measured. Not every province has natural resources that pump up revenue. We have seen that huge revenues don't make a government competent.

If Alberta receives 4 billion in transfer payments, they still lose over 17 billion to the federal government. It hardly make the province dependent on Ottawa as some people like to claim.

I don't know that anyone said the province was dependent on Ottawa.

They do get $4 billion directly from transfers and there are other federal departments and agencies that also pump money into the province. The money that remains with Ottawa and transferred through equalization helps set standards for service nation-wide. In other words, it makes it possible to ensure some consistency for provincial programs.

Does this help Alberta? I suppose that question can be answered by looking at something like the Interstate program in the U.S. Big states with large sources of revenue end up paying big money to small states or states with small populations for their Interstates. However, there is no question that the program has ended up creating massive prosperity in the U.S. which helps every state.

Canada's equalization also creates prosperity. It helps with better health, better infrastructure and better economic opportunities.

Equalization is obviously necessary in a country the size of Canada, I don't think any of us would want to see a province slip into semi third world status. That being said it has been politicized, look at Danny Williams.

Politicized at the federal level too. One party accuses the other of stiffing a province and then gets hoisted on their own petard for doing what they accused the other party of.

In terms of Manitoba, it has helped that the province have booms and busts. It has had a good run the last several years in part because of what past Tory and NDP government's have done. The NDP can thank the Tories for the rainy day fund. It kept the province out of deficit.

Still, the province is at a crossroads. There are some decisions presently that the government in Manitoba makes that are highly controversial and costly such as running hydro lines down the west side of Lake Winnipeg. The reason it is being done is supposed to be environmental. However, the same government is now building a road up the east side. It makes most people give their head a shake.

There has been a string of failed economic initiatives. The hog industry, the call industry, the Internet pharmacy industry have all gotten provincial money and done not so good.

The NDP will seriously have to think about what comes after Gary Doer. At the moment, they are very light on legislation. There is some evidence that they are using the same arguments the past Tory government have made for election shenanigans. At some point, such machinations come to bite you as they did Gary Filmon when he tried for another majority.

It wasn't the economy that hurt the PCs but voter fatigue for their scare tactics and gameplaying.

[Canadian Blue]

Is there any possibility that the Manitoba Liberals could win more support by finding a middle ground between the NDP and Tories?

[jdobbin]

Is there any possibility that the Manitoba Liberals could win more support by finding a middle ground between the NDP and Tories?

Since all three parties crowd the center, it becomes more of a contest between the popularity of the leaders and whether the economy continues as it has.

Eventually though, as it did with the Tories, arrogance and complacency combined with a few questionable activities such as Elections Canada chip away at that support.

Witness Saskatchewan. It didn't matter about the economic performance of the NDP party there. The problem was that the party seemed to have run out of gas. Had it not been for the Liberals, they would have likely fallen much earlier.

Can the Liberals slide up the center? Probably not until they have a new leader. Despite having what many analysts considered to be the best platform in the last election, it only got them re-elected in two ridings. Doer remains a superstar in Canadian politics. He carries his party and is personally responsible for helping to win at least four or five seats with his likability.

It took Doer four times before he won the top job. The present Liberal leader has had a few cracks at it. I suspect this will be his last.

The next election is 2011 and anything can happen but a surefire NDP win seems in the cards unless a big event happens. That could be the hydro report in the next year a bit.

[punked]

Since all three parties crowd the center, it becomes more of a contest between the popularity of the leaders and whether the economy continues as it has.

Eventually though, as it did with the Tories, arrogance and complacency combined with a few questionable activities such as Elections Canada chip away at that support.

Witness Saskatchewan. It didn't matter about the economic performance of the NDP party there. The problem was that the party seemed to have run out of gas. Had it not been for the Liberals, they would have likely fallen much earlier.

Can the Liberals slide up the center? Probably not until they have a new leader. Despite having what many analysts considered to be the best platform in the last election, it only got them re-elected in two ridings. Doer remains a superstar in Canadian politics. He carries his party and is personally responsible for helping to win at least four or five seats with his likability.

It took Doer four times before he won the top job. The present Liberal leader has had a few cracks at it. I suspect this will be his last.

The next election is 2011 and anything can happen but a surefire NDP win seems in the cards unless a big event happens. That could be the hydro report in the next year a bit.

Considering the Liberals have two seats and haven't been government since 1953 and have had a double digit seat count once in the last 40 years I don't think anyone thinks anything of the Liberals. Well you do Dobbin but no one else in Manitoba does.

PS once Doer Leaves Bill Balckie is sitting in ready and he is pretty popular around these parts.

[jdobbin]

Considering the Liberals have two seats and haven't been government since 1953 and have had a double digit seat count once in the last 40 years I don't think anyone thinks anything of the Liberals. Well you do Dobbin but no one else in Manitoba does.

Kind of like the federal NDP, right? Except the NDP has never held government and likely never will.

PS once Doer Leaves Bill Balckie is sitting in ready and he is pretty popular around these parts.

Blaikie may be popular with you on the east coast but he has not registered barely a mention since he was elected. If he is lucky he may be named to cabinet but that would likely entail annoying someone else in top circles. It was Pawley moving around people and dropping them from cabinet that sunk his majority government.

Edited August 11, 2009 by jdobbin

[Smallc]

Blaikie may be popular with you on the east coast but he has not registered barely a mention since he was elected.

There's a cabinet shuffle coming. He'll be in it.

[Smallc]

such as running hydro lines down the west side of Lake Winnipeg.

Right, you'd rather waste a decade making deals with every band along the east side of the lake....wouldn't that be fun. By the time the line got to southern Manitoba, there'd be no profit left. 400M is a small price to pay to avoid that.

[jdobbin]

There's a cabinet shuffle coming. He'll be in it.

And who will be out? Pawley tried to put people in cabinet and as speaker that he wanted. He ended getting it in the end from his own party and losing a confidence vote even though he had a majority. There are many who don't necssarily want Doer to annoint Blaikie.

Or will we just see a cabinet getting bigger and bigger until we see mistakes as we always do when you trying to keep your MLAs happy rather than looking at how well the government runs?

Edited August 11, 2009 by jdobbin

[punked]

And who will be out? Pawley tried to put people in cabinet and as speaker that he wanted and ended getting it in the end from his own party and losing a confidence vote even though he had a majority.

Or will we just see a cabinet getting bigger and bigger until we see mistakes as we always do when you trying to keep your MLAs happy rather than looking at how well the government runs?

RAAAAAAAAA MY NAME IS DOBBIN AND THE NDP CAN DO NOTHING RIGHT!!!

Don't worry Doer has this on lock down. He will figure it out and I see Blackie as the next leader that is my opinion. Doer is in until 2015 anyway.

[jdobbin]

Right, you'd rather waste a decade making deals with every band along the east side of the lake....wouldn't that be fun. By the time the line got to southern Manitoba, there'd be no profit left. 400M is a small price to pay to avoid that.

That is a ridiclous assertion. Doer made the decision based on environmental arguments. It is an argument that doesn't hold up since he is building a road up the east side. If a road is possible, why not a hydro line? Shouldn't the two go hand in hand? If not, why not?

And don't forget there are reserves down the west side as well.

We now we having an investigation into all this waste by the Auditor General if you are reading the paper today. It will take at least 18 months and is coming as the result of a whistleblower. The Ombudsman believed it was something only a detailed audit would clear up which is: How much risk is the government taking and will their be blowback?

That report should be ready about the time of the fixed election in 2011.

[jdobbin]

RAAAAAAAAA MY NAME IS DOBBIN AND THE NDP CAN DO NOTHING RIGHT!!!

You are really acting like a child. How old are you?

Don't worry Doer has this on lock down. He will figure it out and I see Blackie as the next leader that is my opinion. Doer is in until 2015 anyway.

Since you don't know anything about the provincial party, I don't know how you can even make such a prediction. No one knows what Doer will do. He may run again after that.

Or he may a price when the Auditor General special investigation takes place.