Ipsos: Grits 35, Tories 28, NDP 18, Bloc 10

[Dennis]

The numbers can be found at CTV/Ipsos-Reid Poll

Of note:

These are minority government numbers we're talking about.

The Libs are sliding, even after all of Paul Martin's pre-campaign efforts.

Libs still down in Quebec.

Libs down to 41% in Ontario, Tories up to 32% in the province.

Much more info at CTV/Ipsos-Reid Poll

[Dennis]

Andrew Coyne adds some interesting analysis of his own, www.andrewcoyne.com

It's when you dig into the results that the full horror of it emerges.

On a net favourable-unfavourable basis, for example, the Grits come out minus 23. That's just as cold as it sounds: 40% of the public have a negative view of the party, compared to just 17% who have a positive view. The Conservatives are at plus 16 per cent.

If you compare party leaders, you get the same result. Paul Martin, whose personal popularity was going to carry "Team Martin" to victory even as the Liberal brand grew toxic, is at plus 1% -- to 9% for that cold fish, Stephen Harper.

[BigGunner]

Comparing this poll to the last one by Ipsos-Reid, it looks as if the NDP has gained more than the conservatives.

In March, it was;

Liberals 38%

Conservatives 27%

NDP 15%

BQ 10%

GP 5%

other 4%

Today it is;

Liberals 35% (down 3 points)

Conservatives 28% (up 1 point)

NDP 18% (up three points)

BQ 10% (unch.)

other 3% (down one point)

GP 5% (unch.)

Looking at the regional breakdowns, it looks as if the support base for the conservatives is Alberta, and parts of Ontario.

Conservatives are WAY off their 2000 support level when they scored 50% of the vote in BC (now 27%)

I question the model that the Ipsos-Reid people are using to forcast seats, since the conservative party with just over half of its support still intact can hope to keep most of its seats in the west when that is percisely where the NDP has scored massive gains..

The election campaign will be one for the history books.

[maplesyrup]

The NDP is now within 10% of the Cons, which must be very heartening for Jack Layton & his NDP team.

I agree that seat projections are bizarre.

NDP definitely the big winners here.

[Michael Hardner]

I wonder if PM PM has already started talking to Layton about the terms for supporting his minority government.

Would this be a win-win proposition ? The Liberals would continue to govern and Layton could assure official party status, raise his visability, and retain his party's individuality through the free voting that Martin has proposed.

Edited to add: This would also give the Liberals the "leftist credibility" that they lost when Martin took over. You know what I mean by that...

[willy]

What a great idea. I hope some Liberals read this and take your advice.

The NDP think that 18% is a huge victory. It is not.

The Liberals are devastated at 35% and if they focus on NDP support it will not gain greater support but only cause more diminished returns.

I expect the next few months that the swing vote will continue to swing.

The big question is that big Liberal base movable, what will it takes to make those people undecided and then will they go Conservative or NDP.

[Michael Hardner]

Will:

What a great idea. I hope some Liberals read this and take your advice.

It seems to me like you're being sarcastic. Sarcasm doesn't read well, which is why there are icons available to help you out.

The NDP think that 18% is a huge victory. It is not.

The Liberals are devastated at 35% and if they focus on NDP support it will not gain greater support but only cause more diminished returns.

I don't see how. The focus would happen in the backrooms and wouldn't come to the fore until after theh results were in anyway.

I expect the next few months that the swing vote will continue to swing.

The big question is that big Liberal base movable, what will it takes to make those people undecided and then will they go Conservative or NDP.

The base seems pretty solid so far. Even if Harper could swing a Conservative minority government who would support him ? The Bloc ?

[maplesyrup]

Let us look at BC

2000 election results

CPC* 56.7%

Lib 27.7%

NDP 11.3%

grn

Oth 4.3%

April 12, 2004 Ipsos-Reid poll

CPC 27%, down 29.7%

Lib 30, up 2.3%

NDP 25%, up 13.7%

grn 13%

Oth 5%

The NDP and CPC are now virtually even in BC, within margin of error.

*combined All & PC

[willy]

I apologize for the sarcasm, it is not needed. I though it was strange that you would think it an advantage to team with the Liberals and thus the sarcasm.

A minority government is what Diefenbaker had in his first term as PM and when the Liberals forced the election he came back with 206 seats. Biggest ever.

I am surprised that teaming up with the Liberals seems like a good idea to those that support the NDP.

The Liberals have not demonstrated action on any of the NDP priorities. They make great claims but don't follow it up with money.

Would the NDP support more money for education and healthcare going directly to the provinces? They might and if they do they will be voting with the Conservatives. Funny what happens when you have similar goals even if you disagree about how you should achieve them.

[Galahad]

The NDP and CPC are now virtually even in BC

I sure as hell don't worry about the NDP in B.C., under ANY circumstances.

What I DO worry about is that if Paul Martin decides to hold off calling the election ..... by the fall the B.C. knuckleheads will realize that the war in Iraq was a "good thing" and will shower Harper with votes.

That is my worry right across the land.

[Dennis]

The story of this poll is the drop by the Liberals.

But leave it to the NDP to start going bonzo over any news that means they won't get 8%.

"Massive" gains?

If there is one phenomenon I have noticed over the past several months its the hysteria surrounding NDPers over Jack Layton.

What they fail to ever mention is that Layton was at 17% after he became leader and the numbers haven't moved ever since.

So, NPDers can keep going ga-ga over their man, Jack Layton.

The rest of us Canadians will focus on who will actually run the country.

[Michael Hardner]

The rest of us Canadians will focus on who will actually run the country.    

Well if Jack holds the balance of power he will have more power over the country than you, me or Stephen Harper.

The NDP in Ontario was able to leverage a minority-supporting role into power at Queen's Park.

[maplesyrup]

Comparison 2000 Election/April 12/04/Ipsos-Reid Poll

National (308 Seats)

Bloc 10.7%, 10%, down 0.7%

CPC 37.7%, 28%, down 9.7%

Lib 40.8%, 35%, down 4.2%

NDP 8.5%, 18%, up 9.5%

Grn 0.8%, 5%, up 4.2%

Oth 1.5%, 4%, up 2.5%

British Columbia (36 Seats)

CPC 56.7%, 27%, down 29.7%

Lib 27.7%, 30%, up 2.3%

NDP 11.3%, 25%, up 13.7%

Grn 2.1%, 13%, up 11.9%

Oth ----, 5%

Alberta (28 Seats)

CPC 72.4%, 46%, down 26.4%

Lib 20.9%, 31%, up 10.1%

NDP 5.4%, 12%, up 6.6%

Grn 0.5%, 5%, up 4.5%

Oth-----, 5%

Saskatchewan (14 Seats) (Election)

CPC 52.5%

Lib 20.7%

NDP 26.2%

Grn

Oth

Manitoba (14 Seats) (Election)

CPC 44.9%

Lib 32.5%

NDP 20.9%

Grn

Oth

Sasktchewan/Manitoba (28 Seats) (Poll)

CPC 36%

Lib 29%

NDP 27%

Grn 4%

Oth---, 4%

Ontario (106 Seats)

CPC 38%, 32%

Lib 51.5%, 41%

NDP 8.3%, 19%, up 8.7%

Grn 0.9%, 5%, up 4.1%

Oth----, 3%

Quebec (75 Seats)

Bloc 39.9%, 45%,

CPC 11.8% 11%,

Lib 44.2%, 30%,

NDP 1.8%, 10%, up 8.2%

Grn 0.2%, 2%, up 1.8%

Oth----, 2%

Newfoundland & Labrador (7 Seats) (Election)

CPC 38.4%,

Lib 44.9%,

NDP 13.1%,

Grn

Oth

Prince Edward Island (4 Seats) (Election)

CPC 43.4%,

Lib 47%,

NDP 9%,

Grn

Oth

Nova Scotia (11 Seats) (Election)

CPC 38.7%,

Lib 36.5%,

NDP 24%,

Grn

Oth

New Brunswick (10 Seats) (Election)

CPC 45.7%,

Lib 41.7%,

NDP 11.7%,

Grn

Oth

Atlantic Canada (32 Seats) (Poll)

CPC 29%

Lib 41%

NDP 22%,

Grn 7%

Oth 1%

Yukon (1 Seat) (Election)

CPC 35.2%

Lib 32.5%

NDP 31.9%

Grn

Oth

North West Territories (1 Seat) (Election)

CPC 27.7%%

Lib 45.6%

NDP 26.7%

Grn

Oth

Nunavut (1 Seat) (Election)

CPC 8.2%

Lib 69%

NDP 18.3%

Grn

Oth

I would say there is one major party that is happy today, and that is the NDP.

The Bloc & the Greens must be happy as well.

[maplesyrup]

August1991.....could the Bloc actually take 60 seats in Quebec?

Seat Model Projection Indicates If Election Held Tomorrow, Liberals Would Form Minority Government with 144-148 Seats, Conservatives with 82-86, NDP with 19-23, Bloc with 55-59

Article

I have some reservations about these seat counts.

[Goldie]

First of all there is no indication that the NDP gains are not attributed to super majorities in say, Vancouver east or Winnipeg Center. It seems to be a pretty thin NDP surge.

What I find interesting is the favourable impression polling. Stephen Harper is +16 and Paul Martin a -26. That achieved with an invisible Harper and a Paul Martin on TV every day, not to mention the tiresome antics of Layton.

When the election is called and BC conservatives are front and center in this province you can bet that Tories will score better than 30%. Perhaps Svend sells in parts of Vancouver but Stock can own this province as he did in 2000. If not him, Chuck Strahl can score in Metro BC. My point is we like Harper more than Layton and we have a full spectrum to draw upon. I can't tell the difference between Libby and Svend, can you?

What is incredible is the Conservatives at 32% in Ontario, even with the bad taste of Harris and an Alliance take over by the so-called extremists, the little regional regional party has penetrated the the Canadian shield, thank-you very mech. Oh-ya, expect this Ontario number to increase as Harper tours it.

Now we are into the prospect of a fall election and a Judicial inquiry. I'd like to see Oulette talk to a Judge like he did to Peter Mckay. Who do you think is more vote worthy, Scott or Peter? The guy on TV trying to get to bottom of the scandal or the recycled news turncoat.

Don't kid yourself, the Conservatives are the only other possilble power party. A possible LIB NDP coalition will only drive the Red Tories back to the conservatives and make the numbers resemble the 2000 results or 37%.

So you might see, Tories 37, Libs 31%, NDP 15%, Bloq 12%, Grn 5%.

[Michael Hardner]

Oh-ya, expect this Ontario number to increase as Harper tours it.

I find it hard to resolve this opinion of yours with your stated opinion that Ontario won't vote for Harper due to anti-Western sentiments.

A possible LIB NDP coalition will only drive the Red Tories back to the conservatives and make the numbers resemble the 2000 results or 37%.

So you might see, Tories 37, Libs 31%, NDP 15%, Bloq 12%, Grn 5%.

How so ? Do you mean for the NEXT election ? An NDP Liberal coalition wouldn't materialize until after a minority government was elected.

And who would the Tories link up with if they were elected with a minority ? The Bloc ? I've posted this question repeatedly but, understandably perhaps, Conservatives seem uneasy to acknowledge this prospect.

[willy]

The Bloc and Conservatives are not likely to link up.

Check the politics of the Bloc's leader (I mean fiscal and social).

I expect a minority Conservative government wouldn't last long but then we are in election cycle again.

[Goldie]

I find it hard to resolve this opinion of yours with your stated opinion that Ontario won't vote for Harper due to anti-Western sentiments

Micheal ,

Yes, anti-westite sentiment exists in Ontario,simply, if Harper and Martin changed drivers liscences the polls would have Harper on the road to 24 Sussex. However, I did not say he would win Ontario but instead opted for an improvement in numbers, despite all of his so called short comings. I believe at one time somebody conceded he could win 30 seats as if to say this would disprove my stated opinion.

What I mean regarding a Coalition between LIb and NDP is simply, You have Paul Martin openly courting red tories and more recently, nationalists. If you think social conservatives don't get along with red tories, and I include Paul Martin or rather Purple Martin in that assessment. What do you think would happen if you put Paul Martin, Jack Layton, Scott Brison, and Svend Robinson in the same room? Aside from the queer makeover and possible civil union. Can you say dysfunction. Just off the top of my head, Layton-anti corporation, Paul-Mr. Corporation, Brison-pro US, Robinson-anti US.

My point is that the supporters of Martin are really fiscal conservatives first or "red tories", they would not likely take kindly to spending all surpluses on health. If this were not true then the spending scandal would have lost it's legs long ago. Red Tories are less likely to vote NDP than Liberals of the center, Joe Clark, Cretien, and Trudeau.

A conservative minority would most likely try to stand on it's own and govern with free votes. On confidence issues they would seek support from rump parties, most likely Bloq memebers of Conservative mind. The Liberlas might want to break ranks to support common sense legislation and prudent bugdets, rather, the red tories in liberal ranks.

My thinking is that a conservative minority offers no payoffs to secure a coaltition, just sound policy and more power to the voters. If you telegraph your fake left, you can expect your right side to be stacked and you stopped. Eventually the right side says, "This is crap, I'm

doing all the work and you get the benefits.

" This very next election you might see alot of red tories stay in the Liberal fold and this is the Conservative challenge.

[Michael Hardner]

The Bloc and Conservatives are not likely to link up.

Check the politics of the Bloc's leader (I mean fiscal and social).

I expect a minority Conservative government wouldn't last long but then we are in election cycle again

They couldn't form a government without any support at all. If I understand correctly, the governor general would immediately call another election.

[Michael Hardner]

Goldie:

Micheal ,

Yes, anti-westite sentiment exists in Ontario,simply, if Harper and Martin changed drivers liscences the polls would have Harper on the road to 24 Sussex. However, I did not say he would win Ontario but instead opted for an improvement in numbers, despite all of his so called short comings. I believe at one time somebody conceded he could win 30 seats as if to say this would disprove my stated opinion.

But if Ontario is anti-Western, then how could Harper increase his count there by touring and raising his visibility ? Wouldn't Ontarians be too close-minded to the idea of a westerner in office ?

What I mean regarding a Coalition between LIb and NDP is simply, You have Paul Martin openly courting red tories and more recently, nationalists. If you think social conservatives don't get along with red tories, and I include Paul Martin or rather Purple Martin in that assessment. What do you think would happen if you put Paul Martin, Jack Layton, Scott Brison, and Svend Robinson in the same room? Aside from the queer makeover and possible civil union. Can you say dysfunction. Just off the top of my head, Layton-anti corporation, Paul-Mr. Corporation, Brison-pro US, Robinson-anti US.

Social conservatives and red tories don't get along, but their leaders are a little more pragmatic than them. When it comes to pragmatic, can you think of a group who is more amenable to compromise for the sake of ambition than Martin, Layton and Brison ? Not Svend though.

My point is that the supporters of Martin are really fiscal conservatives first or "red tories", they would not likely take kindly to spending all surpluses on health. If this were not true then the spending scandal would have lost it's legs long ago. Red Tories are less likely to vote NDP than Liberals of the center, Joe Clark, Cretien, and Trudeau.

Again, this would all fall into place after the election so it shouldn't affect the election itself as long as Martin, and Layton insist that they're "campaigning to win" etc. etc.

A conservative minority would most likely try to stand on it's own and govern with free votes. On confidence issues they would seek support from rump parties, most likely Bloq memebers of Conservative mind. The Liberlas might want to break ranks to support common sense legislation and prudent bugdets, rather, the red tories in liberal ranks.

Oh, I see. You're counting on the Liberals to prop up a conservative government. Will also proposes a stand-alone Conservative minority government above.

Neither of these plans are realistic.

I think that in reality the CPC would be forced to pay off the Bloc in favours (read $$$) and increased provincial jurisdiction for Quebec in some areas. How would you perceive such dealmaking, given that Chretien effectively did the same thing when he was in office ?

My thinking is that a conservative minority offers no payoffs to secure a coaltition, just sound policy and more power to the voters. If you telegraph your fake left, you can expect your right side to be stacked and you stopped. Eventually the right side says, "This is crap, I'm

doing all the work and you get the benefits.

" This very next election you might see alot of red tories stay in the Liberal fold and this is the Conservative challenge.

It sounds like there's more of a challenge than that. You don't seem to approve of any deals-with-the-devil (ie. the Bloc) so you would need to see Conservative majority government to govern properly. With 107 or so seats east of Ontario that means winning 2/3 of the seats west of Quebec.

Again, it's not realistic. The Liberals could conceivably win less seats than the Conservatives and make a deal with the NDP to rule anyway.

[Alliance Fanatic]

I dont think that an NDP coalition with the Liberal's would work. The reason why is because the NDP is to extreme on social positions. Jack Layton would'nt even allow a free vote on same sex marriage, and would not be willing to accept civil unions, while Harper on the other hand said he supports civil unions. So Harper has to be more open minded than Layton. The Conservative's are not socially extremist either, Harper's a libertarian. All the left wing nuts have is to say that some Conservative's are pro-life and that is about it.

- Don't you find it hilarious that even when Paul Martin spends a load of money on those TV adds that his popularity plummets further.

-If the Liberal's go with the team martin mantra, that will ultimately lead to failure. Nancy Macbeath did it in Alberta and lost her seat. Most people have a certain distaste for people that think their higher than everybody else.

If you think George W Bush is stupid read this story about Martin's version of D-day. http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

I remember when we invaded Norway, not Normandy in France, but the Norway that was'nt actually liberated until the end of the war in 1945.

[Michael Hardner]

I dont think that an NDP coalition with the Liberal's would work. The reason why is because the NDP is to extreme on social positions. Jack Layton would'nt even allow a free vote on same sex marriage, and would not be willing to accept civil unions, while Harper on the other hand said he supports civil unions. So Harper has to be more open minded than Layton. The Conservative's are not socially extremist either, Harper's a libertarian. All the left wing nuts have is to say that some Conservative's are pro-life and that is about it.

Well if Martin, as a minority PM, calls non-binding free votes on social issues then none of that will matter.

- Don't you find it hilarious that even when Paul Martin spends a load of money on those TV adds that his popularity plummets further.

-If the Liberal's go with the team martin mantra, that will ultimately lead to failure. Nancy Macbeath did it in Alberta and lost her seat. Most people have a certain distaste for people that think their higher than everybody else.

After the posts from Willy and Goldie I'm starting to wonder what "failure" entails. They seem to think that Harper could sustain a minority government without the aid of the Bloc somehow. Do you feel this way as well, or are you expecting a Conservative majority ?

[August1991]

This debate is highly speculative but for political junkies, there's nothing more fun than a minority government. And all indications are that that's what we'll have.

We have only had coalition governments in wartime. But we have had anything from "workable arrangements" through to "win each vote as we go".

What arrangements might work?

1) Liberal/NDP (this would stand up for a year or two assuming their combined seat totals form a majority). Layton has said he wants a PR system as a pre-requisite but there are all kinds of solutions to that problem.

The discussion in this thread of "NDP types" working with "Martin Liberals" ignores the point that power solves alot of problems.

Consider scenario: Tories get a plurality of seats but PM stays PM because he works a deal with Layton.

2) Tory/NDP? Won't work for governing. Grassroots on neither side would accept.

3) Liberal/BQ? Might have legs if they kept discussions secret. But the same could be had by getting NDP support.

4) Tory/BQ? This is by far the most interesting one of the lot. It is possible that these two combined will get a majority of seats making a Liberal/NDP deal impossible. Harper would be called to form a government. This is tantamount to the Tories going vote by vote. If the Tory whip is good, and their poll numbers hold, this is doable. But Harper will be eating and drinking politics 24 hours a day.

[Michael Hardner]

This debate is highly speculative but for political junkies, there's nothing more fun than a minority government. And all indications are that that's what we'll have.

Amen to that.

We have only had coalition governments in wartime. But we have had anything from "workable arrangements" through to "win each vote as we go".

What arrangements might work?

1) Liberal/NDP (this would stand up for a year or two assuming their combined seat totals form a majority). Layton has said he wants a PR system as a pre-requisite but there are all kinds of solutions to that problem.

The discussion in this thread of "NDP types" working with "Martin Liberals" ignores the point that power solves alot of problems.

Consider scenario: Tories get a plurality of seats but PM stays PM because he works a deal with Layton.

Quite possible.

2) Tory/NDP? Won't work for governing. Grassroots on neither side would accept.

3) Liberal/BQ? Might have legs if they kept discussions secret. But the same could be had by getting NDP support.

4) Tory/BQ? This is by far the most interesting one of the lot. It is possible that these two combined will get a majority of seats making a Liberal/NDP deal impossible. Harper would be called to form a government. This is tantamount to the Tories going vote by vote. If the Tory whip is good, and their poll numbers hold, this is doable. But Harper will be eating and drinking politics 24 hours a day.

Ok. If we're entering into this arena, then let's go there.

Harper and Duceppe would have to come to an agreement to frame any agreement around "provincial rights". There would be enough room in that position to satisfy the Quebec separatists, the Alberta separatists, and those non-separatist types who just favour more power to the regions.

But the grassroots for those parties would cry bloody murder. The reaction from Conservatives on these political forums to this possibility is usually revolution Such a colation could backfire severely on both leaders.

Also, there's the issue of money for Quebec. I don't know if Harper has the political acumen to navigate through this one - unless he was able to dupe Duceppe into accepting more powers and less money, in which case the Bloc would be trounced in the following election. And how could Harper cut the size of the federal government with all of those government jobs in Quebec protected by the BQ.

I agree with your analysis. I think 1) is most likely, followed by 3) then (the most interesting) 4).

[willy]

"After the posts from Willy and Goldie I'm starting to wonder what "failure" entails. They seem to think that Harper could sustain a minority government without the aid of the Bloc somehow."

I don't see any of these parties holding a coalition government for long. But if they did…..

The goal for me as a Conservative would be to form government. The challenge is for the Liberals members that are closer to the Conservative agenda. Will they vote for a reasonable bill put forward by the Conservatives?

The policy that the Conservatives bring forward in a minority government would be consolatory. The priorities would have to reflect the common areas of concern.

If the Conservatives form a minority, how will the Canadian public digest that prospect if the Liberals force a premature election? The Liberals may find themselves shortly after opposing a majority government.

The Liberals have been able to vilify the Reform, then Alliance, and now they are trying to do the same to Conservatives. The difference is the Tories are united and the Liberals have done themselves in with arrogance. Given the chance Ontario will warm up even more to the alternative.

NDP is a useful rump for debate but they will not factor in to any real change. The Liberal PMO will not go with an anti American agenda, anti defense and a spend and tax philosophy.