August1991 Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 Whaddya predict? I predict Spring. And 21 June to be precise. Why? Well, PM PM wants to meet Dubya in April. Photo Op, our guy, their guy, mouse, elephant. PM PM knows that he can turn this one right - that's why he's doing it. He wants it, bad. BTW, the election occurs 36 days after the Governor-in-Council decides to hold an election - "drops the writ" - as we Canadians alone say. (Governor-in-Council? That's the Cabinet ordering the Governor-General what to do. Huh? That's PM PM deciding - after a walk in the snow, or after a walk under The Big-Sky-Country, Albertan Sun - as Martin will probably say in the press conference.) PS. I assume the writ must drop before Broadbent's by-election at the end of November 2004 - but the Constitution allows to 2005. PPS. "Riding" is another solely Canadian, parliamentary term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galahad Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 I predict Spring. And 21 June to be precise. You could have just as well said..."I predict Winter. And 21 June to be precise." Whaddya predict? I kind of liked and was ready to bet on the June 21 date myself, but seeing as how a man who doesn't even know the seasons picks it, I will switch. Thus my new prediction is an April 25 call for a May 31 vote, right after the April 22-23 testimony by Chuck Guite & Paul Martin's super-productive meeting with George W. Bush. Wanna bet? PS - To your question "who the hell is Don Martin" ... he is the original guy from whom the ad people "When EF Hutton speaks, people listen" stole the concept . He has big bucks riding on a May 31 vote also. Still wanna bet? Didn't think so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted April 5, 2004 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2004 I kind of liked and was ready to bet on the June 21 date myself, but seeing as how a man who doesn't even know the seasons picks it, I will switch. Listen Galahad, I gotta defend myself. There are no summer or winter elections in Canada - unless a minority government falls and "precipitates" an election. Spring and fall. That's it. The conventional, Keith Davey, Rainmaker wisdom is that spring is better for incumbents in Canada. Flowers, sunshine, no slush, no black flies... (BTW, I heard Harper talking about fixed election dates and I thought, this guy doesn't get how parliament works. There are several centuries of experience -plus minority government issues- arguing against fixed dates.) Now out of respect for you Sir Galahad, I'll quote here your cut-to the-chase post from elsewhere: Yesterday, Don Martin put out his official odds on when the election will occur, saying:While only a serious April fool would bet heavily on any date yet - Martin probably hasn't picked one himself - here are the various voting day scenarios with my estimated odds of becoming a reality. May 10 (Odds against; 30-1) May 17 (40-1) May 25 (10-1) May 31 (3-2) June 07 (50-1) June 14 (16-1) June 21 (16-1) After that, it's an August 22 call for a September 27 vote. Subject to change without notice, of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galahad Posted April 5, 2004 Report Share Posted April 5, 2004 Listen Galahad, I gotta defend myself. There are no summer or winter elections in Canada - unless a minority government falls and "precipitates" an election. Spring and fall. That's it. So why did you pick a summer date, dodo? .... ROTFPIMPALMFARO! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted April 5, 2004 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2004 In the Canadian political calendar, 21 June is in Spring. Trudeau enjoyed Spring Trudeaumania and then won a Spring majority on 25 June. Our PM PM wants the same. He can taste it. Late Spring election, scandal nonsense over, meeting with Bush. Voters in Ontario and Quebec will realize Martin and the Liberals are the right choice. No problem. Hey, the overall poll numbers are there. Stay with the plan. Look confident. Our guy has it. This is no time to hesitate. ROTFPIMPALMFARO! WTF? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galahad Posted April 5, 2004 Report Share Posted April 5, 2004  In the Canadian political calendar, 21 June is in Spring. Trudeau enjoyed Spring Trudeaumania and then won a Spring majority on 25 June. How delightfully quaint of Canadian politicans, using their own private little calander that has different seasons than the rest of the civilized world. When do these imps celebrate Christmas? December 10? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted April 5, 2004 Report Share Posted April 5, 2004 I can not see an election this spring. Polling numbers are just not there in Quebec for Martin. See MacDonald s article in today s Montreal Gazette. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galahad Posted April 6, 2004 Report Share Posted April 6, 2004 I can not see an election this spring. Polling numbers are just not there in Quebec for Martin. See MacDonald s article in today s Montreal Gazette. Missed your MacDonald article but I don't care because Don Martin told me personally, along with all of his readers in the NP newspaper today, that ... and I quote: I'm still betting heavily (that the election) will be held on May 31, roughly the date I clinch first place in the office hockey pool. And you know what they say ... "When Don Martin speaks, people listen" ... so be smart and put some bucks on that date, it will be the easiest money you have ever made. It will be for me, THAT'S for sure! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galahad Posted April 9, 2004 Report Share Posted April 9, 2004 I can not see an election this spring. Polling numbers are just not there in Quebec for Martin. See MacDonald s article in today s Montreal Gazette. Missed your MacDonald article but I don't care because Don Martin told me personally, along with all of his readers in the NP newspaper today, that ... and I quote: I'm still betting heavily (that the election) will be held on May 31, roughly the date I clinch first place in the office hockey pool. And you know what they say ... "When Don Martin speaks, people listen" ... so be smart and put some bucks on that date, it will be the easiest money you have ever made. It will be for me, THAT'S for sure! After reading Norman Spector's article in the Vancouver Sun today, I'm really really sorry that I missed your MacDonald article. If it was as eye opening as my guy's was, I'd definitely save myself a bundle. Que sera sera. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bro Posted April 11, 2004 Report Share Posted April 11, 2004 The election will be called on or before April 29th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted April 11, 2004 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2004 The election will be called on or before April 29th. So you're going with a 7 June election date? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galahad Posted April 11, 2004 Report Share Posted April 11, 2004 The election will be called on or before April 29th. So you're going with a 7 June election date? Just tell him to save his bucks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bro Posted April 11, 2004 Report Share Posted April 11, 2004 No,I would say in true liberal fashion,the actual election date will be between Aug. 21 and first week of September when most families are busy with so many other issues,they will once again forget why they shouldn't vote liberal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galahad Posted April 11, 2004 Report Share Posted April 11, 2004 No,I would say in true liberal fashion,the actual election date will be between Aug. 21 and first week of September when most families are busy with so many other issues,they will once again forget why they shouldn't vote liberal. Wanna bet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bro Posted April 11, 2004 Report Share Posted April 11, 2004 I bet they will call the election at the most awkward time for the majority of Canadians. That's really the closest date I can give. You can be damned sure they are trying very hard at the moment trying to figure out this exact date. It might fit in with the 2 week construction holiday in Quebec,which I think is in early July. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galahad Posted April 11, 2004 Report Share Posted April 11, 2004 I bet they will call the election at the most awkward timefor the majority of Canadians. That's really the closest date I can give. It sure would be awkward to call it so that it falls on Father's Day (Sunday, June 20), a day PM PM would dearly love to win and dedicate it to his dad. So the next best date is the next day, Monday June 21. And he'll still clink his glass with Sheila and say "Happy belated Fathers Day dad, this one's for you!" August1991 has a good bet going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted April 20, 2004 Author Report Share Posted April 20, 2004 You read it first here: Still, some MPs and campaign organizers yesterday predicted a June 7 or June 21 election date based on the weekend strategy session, saying they were given no hint to delay their campaign plans. Harper was right; the Liberals want a nasty campaign: "We're going to be drawing some pretty careful distinctions between Stephen Harper and Paul Martin," a senior Liberal strategist said, adding the Liberals plan to paint the Conservative leader as "radical and right-wing" and "very non-mainstream" with a "very American style." G & M on coming election Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted April 24, 2004 Author Report Share Posted April 24, 2004 Ottawa was buzzing yesterday with rumours that Mr. Martin is preparing to drop the election writ a week from tomorrow for an election June 7. G&M Taber PM PM could have easily said that we won't have a spring election. The fact that he has not said that makes it clear that we will. He knows that his credibility is on the line. He can't play games anymore. We will have a spring election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted April 26, 2004 Author Report Share Posted April 26, 2004 Possible Spring Dates Sun 2 May writ drop for Mon 7 Jun Sun 9 May for 14 Jun Sun 16 May for 21 Jun Sun 23 May for 28 Jun (???) The writ must be dropped at least 36 days before the election and elections must fall on a Monday (unless it's a holiday and then the election is Tues.) An election on 21 Jun coincides with Sun 20 Jun Quebec municipal referenda. Nix 21 June. Mon 28 Jun? (St. Jean-Baptiste is Thu 24 Jun and Canada Day is Thu 1 Jul. In June 1968, Trudeau got his first majority on 25 June.) Interpreting the results of the referenda risks to be messy. Nix 28 Jun. I go for 14 Jun, which means PM PM has to make some kind of announcement before 9 May if we are to have a spring election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted May 4, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 4, 2004 The 28 June it will be. That means PM PM wants a longer campaign period. Radio Canada on Election Date Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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