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The point of this poll was to show that people are tiring of minorities (and conceivably, Conservatives).

No it was a push poll which has had 3 separate articles in my local newspaper alone. It is the classic push poll, other wise they would have polled voter intentions and reported on that also.

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People aren't always interested in voter intentions. Alternatively, they often poll things and don't release the findings. This is a completely legitimate poll. You simply don't agree with its premise.

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People aren't always interested in voter intentions. Alternatively, they often poll things and don't release the findings. This is a completely legitimate poll. You simply don't agree with its premise.

If I called people and asked "Are comfortable with a leader who has spent most of their lives outside of Canada, and has often been quoted as praising his allegiance to another country, Yes, No?"

That would be a legitimate poll too, however it is a push poll that doesn't actually tell us anything. The idea of a push poll is to influence people with a poll that has no merit, just like this one.

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Even if he didn't borrow my number you would agree the Bloc and the NDP are going to win seats? If you do and the Cons win 105 and the Liberals win 105 then wont be a majority with two other parties winning seats.

105 was the starting point (base) not the final result (win).

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105 was the starting point (base) not the final result (win).

105 being a starting point makes it most impossible to win a majority.

Libs 105

Cons 105

that means there is 210 meaning there is 100 seats left to compete for.

Bloc is going to get some I think their lowest number would be 30

NDP is going to get some I think their lowest number is 20

Now their is 50 seats left someone has to sweep all 50 and that is best case the Bloc are going to win more seats then 30 they are polling at 40-45% right now with that they would win 50 seats at least. That is my point Majorities are impossible with the Bloc and NDP in the mix in any substantial way. Where do you get the seats I gave you my best case break down what is yours.

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What a load. Math is a huge part of politics. Polls make or break things. For the Liberals they dictate all the policy, for the other parties they steer the direction of discourse.

Math on polls doesn't matter, politicians are proud enough to say they don't care about that.

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Math on polls doesn't matter, politicians are proud enough to say they don't care about that.

Accept they fallow polls like it is their job. Like it or not we can get a seat count right now and their might be 70-100 seats in play right now. Like it or not this is the way it goes.

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See here is the problem and you are right the NDP base is much closer to 20 seats. But in 1993 politics in Canada changed there is no point looking beyond that time because it was a different country politically then. What changed? Quebec and the West. This was the beginning of the end of majorities. The West stopped voting for the Liberals altogether, and Quebec started voting for the Bloc. The NDP dose not matter becuase the Blocs 30 base seats make it so the Liberals can never have a majority.

PS the CPC and Libs base is much closer to 60, those are 60 seats that wont change hands in the next 10 years.

You are quite correct politics did change in 1993 with the advent of the Bloc and the Reform parties. Oddly enough the Bloc did do damage to the LPC's numbers but I would purport they did substantially more to the NDP. Prior to the Bloc's creation the NDP were well on their way up, the 1988 election was their best showing ever at an amazing 43 seats. If the Bloc were to ever dissolve, which many speculate might happen when Gille retires, I'm certain the NDP would be courting many of those candidates. If that ever happens than I would say the NDP would definitely have a chance of forming the government, granted a minority at best.

I would agree that the following breakdown is much more reasonable.

CPC 60

LPC 60

Bloc 30

NDP 20

That's a total of 170 seats that are not likely to change hands. That leaves a total of 138 seats that are essentially up for grabs. It's not at all unreasonable to say that either the CPC or the LPC could take at least 95 of the seats they require to form a majority. But honestly it's really hard to peg a solid base number for any party as so many factors come into play. Hence we see things like 1993 with the old PC party reduced to 2 seats in the house or the Liberals in 1984 reduced to their worst showing ever of 40 seats.

As always with politics there are many factors that affect the outcome. In the next election the economy will play a huge part in how that goes. As a rule Canadians tend to not change during a crisis, so barring any enormous blunders by the CPC and the timing of the election of course it could work out to their benefit. Either way it's going to be a tough fight, but anyone who isn't kidding themselves realizes it's not truly a 5 way competition. It's between the LPC and the CPC, eventually one side will give out to the advantage of the other.

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Another poll out today. Liberals on their way down the CPC on their way up even after the G8 and the whole waffer thing.

* Conservative: 34.1%

* Liberal: 32.4%

* NDP: 15.2%

* Green: 9.6%

* BQ: 8.7%

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/07/15/...support015.html

I would also point out Canadians agree with the NPD on Afghan mission 54% against 34% for. So now right on EI and Afghan mission I am sure the Liberals will look at what the NDP has said about it so they can steal our talking points.

Scariest thing for the Liberals might be this though.

Canada's direction

'All things considered, would you say the country is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction?'

* Right direction: 55%

* Wrong direction: 34%

* Don't know: 11%

Edited by punked
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You are quite correct politics did change in 1993 with the advent of the Bloc and the Reform parties. Oddly enough the Bloc did do damage to the LPC's numbers but I would purport they did substantially more to the NDP. Prior to the Bloc's creation the NDP were well on their way up, the 1988 election was their best showing ever at an amazing 43 seats. If the Bloc were to ever dissolve, which many speculate might happen when Gille retires, I'm certain the NDP would be courting many of those candidates. If that ever happens than I would say the NDP would definitely have a chance of forming the government, granted a minority at best.

No the Bloc did steal from the Liberals in PQ, it is just that Reform broke the Ontario conservative up so much the Liberals won every seat in Ontario. It is easy to form a government winning 100 seats in Ontario. That does not happen any more.

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No the Bloc did steal from the Liberals in PQ, it is just that Reform broke the Ontario conservative up so much the Liberals won every seat in Ontario. It is easy to form a government winning 100 seats in Ontario. That does not happen any more.

It didn't happen before the Reform party either. Back then, if you wanted to have a majority, you had to win Quebec.

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No the Bloc did steal from the Liberals in PQ, it is just that Reform broke the Ontario conservative up so much the Liberals won every seat in Ontario. It is easy to form a government winning 100 seats in Ontario. That does not happen any more.

Read the post again, I said the Bloc DID do damage to the LPC's numbers but did proportionally more to the NDP.

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Another poll out today. Liberals on their way down the CPC on their way up even after the G8 and the whole waffer thing.

The Liberals moved up from the last poll.

I would also point out Canadians agree with the NPD on Afghan mission 54% against 34% for. So now right on EI and Afghan mission I am sure the Liberals will look at what the NDP has said about it so they can steal our talking points.

The NDP supports an immediate pull-out. I don't think that is what the poll asked but if you think that is what Canadians want, by all means...

Scariest thing for the Liberals might be this though.

The only major parties in the House down in the polls according to Ekos were the BQ and NDP.

Things could not be worse for the NDP. Sinking and sinking. We'll see them drop below 15% at this rate.

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I know it is not a perfect seat projector but it is the only I can find who actually uses regional numbers.

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

The Libs have more popular support and get less seats. Yet I would think they will lose a few more in both Quebec and Ontario, not to mention Alberta and BC.

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When talking about those bases of support... for the secondary parties, they rely on relative satisfaction with the status quo. (Counterintuitive as that may seem.)

When people don't have their tails in a knot, or see an intense necessity for change, then they have the luxury of fracturing vote, and giving the nod to secondary parties and independents. When they are very upset or see large risks, then they coalesce around the idea of making a national difference, and vote strategically for one of the two primaries.

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The Liberals moved up from the last poll.

Yep they moved up in all the places it wont count and down in all the places it will.

BC they moved up 1% compared to the CPC who moved up 10% to get 40% of the vote their.

The moved up in Alberta 4% and still wont win a seat

They lost in PQ 2% while the CPC are now around 20%

and stayed about the same everywhere else. Welcome to 2006 all over again.

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