Election Prospects

[blueblood]

Looks like Iggy's wanting to play hardball with Harper. Watch for a poison pill put into the budget.

ctv

Doesn't bode well for the Opposition when Canadians want parliament to work and Harper is "emphasizing" that. Oh well.

[August1991]

Doesn't bode well for the Opposition when Canadians want parliament to work and Harper is "emphasizing" that. Oh well.

For a variety of reasons, neither Harper nor Ignatieff want to see the government lose a confidence vote in January. So, there will be no constitutional crisis, and no election.

After January, all bets are off. We could be going to the polls as early as June 2009 but no later than Fall 2009.

[ToadBrother]

Looks like Iggy's wanting to play hardball with Harper. Watch for a poison pill put into the budget.

ctv

Doesn't bode well for the Opposition when Canadians want parliament to work and Harper is "emphasizing" that. Oh well.

Yes, Harper wanted it to work so badly that he intentionally picked a fight with the Opposition, and ultimately had to run to the GG to save his bacon.

Not that I support the Coalition, and I'm actually kind of glad that Ignatief is cool to it. I think he's looking and Layton and Duceppe and not thinking these are the guys that are his wings to fly into power, but rather the anchor that will sink the Liberals. I have a suspicion he's probably much more of a mind to let Harper do what he wants, and give himself some time to do what needs to be done inside the party.

[blueblood]

For a variety of reasons, neither Harper nor Ignatieff want to see the government lose a confidence vote in January. So, there will be no constitutional crisis, and no election.

After January, all bets are off. We could be going to the polls as early as June 2009 but no later than Fall 2009.

A constitutional crisis is Harper's advantage. He can play the coalition card. Why would harper stir up the beehive and not get any honey out of it? Harper has the most to lose by waiting. Waiting gives Ignatieff time. Ignatieff with time gets to establish more credibility, time for the economy to worsen, time to raise money. All Harper risks doing is angering people who won't vote for him anyway.

[ToadBrother]

A constitutional crisis is Harper's advantage. He can play the coalition card. Why would harper stir up the beehive and not get any honey out of it? Harper has the most to lose by waiting. Waiting gives Ignatieff time. Ignatieff with time gets to establish more credibility, time for the economy to worsen, time to raise money. All Harper risks doing is angering people who won't vote for him anyway.

There is a very real danger here. No one knows for sure how Canadians would respond if another crisis was ignited, or if another election were called in January. You can't predict this sort of thing, and I'm not convinced, a few recent polls notwithstanding, that we're out of the minority phase yet. If the Tories were to gain a majority, it would be a slim one at best, and I'm not convinced he can form a majority. What if all of this leads to yet another Conservative minority?

He's won round one in this, but I'm not sure if he won it so much as the Coalition lost it. If he puts items in the budget designed specifically to produce another crisis, he could shoot off his own foot. What if the GG ultimately does lose patience? What if the voters decide that Harper is simply picking a fight to try to produce better election results? Will the Conservatives willingly go along with another game of "Poke 'em In the Eye?" Despite the happiness of getting out of a confidence motion, my understanding is that the Conservative caucus was not at all happy with this entire episode. Harper is not without enemies, or at least competitors, in his own party, and maybe some of them might not be too sad to see this Coalition take over just long enough to send Harper packing.

Everyone seems to be concentrating on the Coalition aspect of this story, and it is pretty interesting stuff, but what seems to be lost in all of this is the almost guaranteed politicking that must be going on *inside* the Conservative Party.

Edited December 10, 2008 by ToadBrother

[blueblood]

There is a very real danger here. No one knows for sure how Canadians would respond if another crisis was ignited, or if another election were called in January. You can't predict this sort of thing, and I'm not convinced, a few recent polls notwithstanding, that we're out of the minority phase yet. If the Tories were to gain a majority, it would be a slim one at best, and I'm not convinced he can form a majority. What if all of this leads to yet another Conservative minority?

He's won round one in this, but I'm not sure if he won it so much as the Coalition lost it. If he puts items in the budget designed specifically to produce another crisis, he could shoot off his own foot. What if the GG ultimately does lose patience? What if the voters decide that Harper is simply picking a fight to try to produce better election results? Will the Conservatives willingly go along with another game of "Poke 'em In the Eye?" Despite the happiness of getting out of a confidence motion, my understanding is that the Conservative caucus was not at all happy with this entire episode. Harper is not without enemies, or at least competitors, in his own party, and maybe some of them might not be too sad to see this Coalition take over just long enough to send Harper packing.

Everyone seems to be concentrating on the Coalition aspect of this story, and it is pretty interesting stuff, but what seems to be lost in all of this is the almost guaranteed politicking that must be going on *inside* the Conservative Party.

It's safe to say Harper is unelectable to a majority gov't without a crisis. All Harper has to do is keep this crisis going. This crisis is Harper's only way to get a majority, the longer the crisis goes on, the longer Harper makes the opposition look like fools, the better for him. If Ignatieff caves in the budget, it won't look good for the tories at all. Ignatieff will have bought himself time, and will have been responsible for ending the crisis, making him look real good to voters.

Harper has to lose confidence. Party Brass wants a majority gov't. The only thing the tories were happy about getting out of the confidence motion was time to formulate a budget and make the opposition look like fools.

Harper has to play this game, it's the only way he can prolong his political career. He has 1 election and that's it.

[ToadBrother]

It's safe to say Harper is unelectable to a majority gov't without a crisis. All Harper has to do is keep this crisis going. This crisis is Harper's only way to get a majority, the longer the crisis goes on, the longer Harper makes the opposition look like fools, the better for him. If Ignatieff caves in the budget, it won't look good for the tories at all. Ignatieff will have bought himself time, and will have been responsible for ending the crisis, making him look real good to voters.

Ignatieff isn't even trying to hide his distaste for this Coalition. He may have to play ball for a little while, but I'd say there are even odds that he doesn't topple the government. He strikes me as the kind of guy who wants to fight Harper's government mono e mono, and not with a Duceppe and Layton on his back.

Harper has to lose confidence. Party Brass wants a majority gov't.

Well of course they want a majority. But losing a confidence vote doesn't guarantee that the Conservatives get one.

The only thing the tories were happy about getting out of the confidence motion was time to formulate a budget and make the opposition look like fools.

Harper has to play this game, it's the only way he can prolong his political career. He has 1 election and that's it.

I wouldn't bet either way on this one at this point. The Coalition will probably collapse, but it's failure doesn't necessarily translate into Harper's victory. Ignatieff might be able to capitalize just as well on giving the Bloc and the NDP the shove as Harper could. He's a bright guy, though I don't think anyone yet knows if he's got the kind of streetsmarts, and his big problem will be that if he decides to let the budget stand, will his method of selection undermine his ability to get his party to play along.

[Mr.Canada]

In my opinion...

I agree with many of the previous posters. We will be back at the polls by fall 2009 and personally feel he'll get a majority. I say this because after this fiasco I feel that Canadians are tired of minority governments and see that they don't work well. If however Harper doesn't secure a majority he should and will step down.

I think that Ignatieff is a non factor. I say this because he can't relate to the masses. I'm sure he'll try and he has been trying but he has too much of that Ivy league arrogance in him and has spent too much time in those circles to change now this late in the game. The majority of his adult life has been spent abroad and this won't resonate with voters very well.

To boot Ignatieff is not a good speaker and doesn't connect with the common man.

Edited December 10, 2008 by Mr.Canada

[blueblood]

In my opinion...

I agree with many of the previous posters. We will be back at the polls by fall 2009 and personally feel he'll get a majority. I say this because after this fiasco I feel that Canadians are tired of minority governments and see that they don't work well. If however Harper doesn't secure a majority he should and will step down.

I think that Ignatieff is a non factor. I say this because he can't relate to the masses. I'm sure he'll try and he has been trying but he has too much of that Ivy league arrogance in him and has spent too much time in those circles to change now this late in the game. The majority of his adult life has been spent abroad and this won't resonate with voters very well.

To boot Ignatieff is not a good speaker and doesn't connect with the common man.

Ignatieff is the new Liberal party. The Liberals have a fresh image with all the Chretien and Trudeau era image/nonsense for all intents and purposes is gone. Time is the Liberals friend. Time to fundraise, time to sell Ignatieff, time to build credibility, time to sell the new party, time for the recession to worsen, time to distance himself from this parliamentary embarassment for the Liberals.

Canadians aren't going to care about his oversees adventures, they are going to see a new leader with new ideas. Ignatieff is a good choice for the Libs, and could possibly win an election further down the road if Harper doesn't get his way in January.

[Mr.Canada]

Ignatieff is the new Liberal party. The Liberals have a fresh image with all the Chretien and Trudeau era image/nonsense for all intents and purposes is gone. Time is the Liberals friend. Time to fundraise, time to sell Ignatieff, time to build credibility, time to sell the new party, time for the recession to worsen, time to distance himself from this parliamentary embarassment for the Liberals.

Canadians aren't going to care about his oversees adventures, they are going to see a new leader with new ideas. Ignatieff is a good choice for the Libs, and could possibly win an election further down the road if Harper doesn't get his way in January.

We'll see I guess blueblood. The same thing was said about Dion in the beginning if you remember and we all know how that turned out.

[ToadBrother]

Ignatieff is the new Liberal party. The Liberals have a fresh image with all the Chretien and Trudeau era image/nonsense for all intents and purposes is gone. Time is the Liberals friend. Time to fundraise, time to sell Ignatieff, time to build credibility, time to sell the new party, time for the recession to worsen, time to distance himself from this parliamentary embarassment for the Liberals.

Canadians aren't going to care about his oversees adventures, they are going to see a new leader with new ideas. Ignatieff is a good choice for the Libs, and could possibly win an election further down the road if Harper doesn't get his way in January.

This unbiased message is brought to you by the Liberal Party of Canada...

[blueblood]

This unbiased message is brought to you by the Liberal Party of Canada...

???

i call em as i see em

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Harper will either write a budget in consultation with Iggy, or he will lose his job. Iggy will hold the coalition card over Harpers head until Iggy decides to force the election. Harper is too dumb to realize that he has given the Liberals a weapon to use against himself. Dion he could beat, Iggy he won't.

[BC_chick]

A constitutional crisis is Harper's advantage. He can play the coalition card. Why would harper stir up the beehive and not get any honey out of it?

I really don't think Harper anticipated the coalition. He thought he's delivering the final blow to someone who's already on the ground.

[jdobbin]

Doesn't bode well for the Opposition when Canadians want parliament to work and Harper is "emphasizing" that. Oh well.

And you just said that Harper will not let Parliament work.

[blueblood]

And you just said that Harper will not let Parliament work.

that's why i use quotation marks. harper in essense is talking out of his ass in that regard.

[blueblood]

Harper will either write a budget in consultation with Iggy, or he will lose his job. Iggy will hold the coalition card over Harpers head until Iggy decides to force the election. Harper is too dumb to realize that he has given the Liberals a weapon to use against himself. Dion he could beat, Iggy he won't.

That depends on if Harper can successfully spin that Iggy is tied to an unpopular coalition.

[jdobbin]

that's why i use quotation marks. harper in essense is talking out of his ass in that regard.

So what do you think he will put in a budget that the Liberals can't vote for?

[blueblood]

So what do you think he will put in a budget that the Liberals can't vote for?

he might pull a gop and cheap out on bailouts. The polls say bailing out the autosector isn't too popular

[jdobbin]

he might pull a gop and cheap out on bailouts. The polls say bailing out the autosector isn't too popular

Don't know how well that will go over with Flaherty in his own riding.

[normanchateau]

Harper will either write a budget in consultation with Iggy, or he will lose his job. Iggy will hold the coalition card over Harpers head until Iggy decides to force the election. Harper is too dumb to realize that he has given the Liberals a weapon to use against himself. Dion he could beat, Iggy he won't.

As dumb as Harper is, he knows now what he didn't know two weeks ago...his one and only hope of winning a majority is to run against the coalition.

Unfortunately for Harper, Ignatieff knows this as well. It won't happen.

Ignatieff took the Liberal leadership efficiently and with military precision.

The stumbling and blundering Harper who ran to the G-G to save his equine ass can't take the risk of allowing Canadians to get to know Ignatieff, especially a pro-military, McKenna-type Liberal no longer manacled to Layton and Duceppe.

Goodbye Three Stooges, Goodbye Court Jester Harper.

[Bryan]

As dumb as Harper is, he knows now what he didn't know two weeks ago...his one and only hope of winning a majority is to run against the coalition.

1) Harper was well aware of the coalition. he knew it wouldn't work, and he knew the public would be enraged by it.

2) He still will run against the coalition, even if we never hear another word about it from the left.

[normanchateau]

2) He still will run against the coalition, even if we never hear another word about it from the left.

Sounds like another brilliant Harper strategy. Run against something that no longer exists.

It fits well with the other Harper strategy of professing one set of beliefs, e.g., fiscal conservatism, while governing in exactly the opposite fashion, i.e., increasing government spending more than any prime minister in the history of Canada.

[M.Dancer]

Sounds like another brilliant Harper strategy. Run against something that no longer exists.

Yet the potential exists. After all it was Layton who hatched the plan and the plan is still alive...anyway sort of like some Liberals who talk about SSM and abortion even though those issues are actually really quite dead.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

The plan is more than alive, it is growing strategies as we speak. That plan must be repudiated before it ceases to have effect. The Liberals and NDP signed a deal. The coalition is going to control Harper whether he believes it or not. It is a reality that Harper will experience despite his personal opinions.

Iggy will USE the coalition to do what HE wants.