Shady Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The stock market posted its biggest plunge following a presidential election as reports on jobs and service industries stoked concern the economy will worsen even as President-elect Barack Obama tries to stimulate growth Bloomberg I think it's pretty obvious that people are getting out of the market before Obama pushes through his large capital gains tax increases. I'd expect the dow to drop another 1000 points by the time he takes office, and then, depending on the economy, slowly gain once they're factored into the situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdobbin Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 I think it's pretty obvious that people are getting out of the market before Obama pushes through his large capital gains tax increases. I'd expect the dow to drop another 1000 points by the time he takes office, and then, depending on the economy, slowly gain once they're factored into the situation. And if McCain won and the market did the same thing which it seems likely, you would have been resolutely quiet. Talk about hyperpartisan conservative support. The market downfall is all about Obama. Nothing to do with the bad news under the present Republican president. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 ....I think it's pretty obvious that people are getting out of the market before Obama pushes through his large capital gains tax increases. I'd expect the dow to drop another 1000 points by the time he takes office, and then, depending on the economy, slowly gain once they're factored into the situation. Wait.....it gets worse. The Democrats are toying with the idea of eliminating tax deferred 401k retirement plans, because they lose about $80 billion each year in tax revenue: In place of 401(k) plans, she would have workers transfer their dough into government-created "guaranteed retirement accounts" for every worker. The government would deposit $600 (inflation indexed) every year into the GRAs. Each worker would also have to save 5 percent of pay into the accounts, to which the government would pay a measly 3 percent return. Rep. Jim McDermott, a Democrat from Washington and chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee's Subcommittee on Income Security and Family Support, said that since "the savings rate isn't going up for the investment of $80 billion [in 401(k) tax breaks], we have to start to think about whether or not we want to continue to invest that $80 billion for a policy that's not generating what we now say it should." - James Pethokoukis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 ...The market downfall is all about Obama. Nothing to do with the bad news under the present Republican president. Ahem.....Or Democratic Congress. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 I think it's pretty obvious that people are getting out of the market before Obama pushes through his large capital gains tax increases. I'd expect the dow to drop another 1000 points by the time he takes office, and then, depending on the economy, slowly gain once they're factored into the situation.I follow the market and I disagree.The basic news is bad but there is disagreement about how bad. I wouldn't see the election result and a market change as signnificant. As they say, the market accurately assumed and adjusted prices to an Obama win several months ago. I'm a bad market analyst so I only priced-in an Obama win a few weeks ago. Now then Shady, what is the market price of an Obama win? You can PM me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted November 7, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 Not hyperpartisan at all. Just logic. I'll ask you, are upcoming large capital gains tax increases more likely to cause people to sell assets or to invest more heavily? Why was the market up, and gaining strength throughout last week, and early this week, as polls tightened, and then plunge so sharply after the election? I think you know the answers. Not to mention, that Mr. Obama, wants to raise income taxes as well, in the midst of this large economic slowdown. Logic and reason indicate that people are taking all of this into consideration, and taking the appropriate actions while they have the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted November 7, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 the market accurately assumed and adjusted prices to an Obama win several months ago. Several months ago? Did the market price in an Obama win in early september when McCain was up by 5 points? Before the crash? I don't think so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted November 7, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 Wait.....it gets worse. The Democrats are toying with the idea of eliminating tax deferred 401k retirement plans, because they lose about $80 billion each year in tax revenue: Yikes, that's pretty scary. God forbid they lose out on more tax revenue. Because we all know that people just aren't paying enough taxes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdobbin Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 Not hyperpartisan at all. Just logic. I'll ask you, are upcoming large capital gains tax increases more likely to cause people to sell assets or to invest more heavily? Why was the market up, and gaining strength throughout last week, and early this week, as polls tightened, and then plunge so sharply after the election? I think you know the answers. Not to mention, that Mr. Obama, wants to raise income taxes as well, in the midst of this large economic slowdown. Logic and reason indicate that people are taking all of this into consideration, and taking the appropriate actions while they have the time. Please. You are attributing the market going up last week to the belief that McCain was going to win? Where did you read that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 (edited) Several months ago? Did the market price in an Obama win in early september when McCain was up by 5 points? Before the crash? I don't think so.I reckoned Obama would win in October and I know that the market is smarter than me.Shady, market prices changed far before the election results. As they say, it's not a good idea to drive a car by looking through the rear-view mirror. You'll like hit a tree. Edited November 7, 2008 by August1991 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gc1765 Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 The market downfall is all about Obama. Nothing to do with the bad news under the present Republican president. No kidding. The market has been falling for months, but clearly this one day drop is due to Obama's victory Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted November 7, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 I reckoned Obama would win in October I see, so by several months, you actually meant one month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liam Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 (edited) Why was the market up, and gaining strength throughout last week, and early this week, as polls tightened, and then plunge so sharply after the election? I think you know the answers. The DJIA dropped after election day because it rose 400+ points on election day for no reason. Let me get this straight... people are willing to sell out of the market now, many at a loss, because six months from now, Congress might pass a revision to the tax code. So, they're locking in losses now so they don't need to pay higher taxes in April of 2010? I'd say people are pretty dumb if they take their money out now before an adjustment to cap gains taxes is even announced and before their investments have an opportunity to regain some of the lost ground. Markets are dropping because the distraction of the election is over and people are now starting to see evidence that the economy is really in a recession (news stories of job losses, store closings, etc.). I work in the investment industry (as of this hour ) and I see no evidence that what you're saying is true. Nor am I the slightest bit concerned that 401k's will lose their tax exempt status. Ain't gonna happen. Edited November 7, 2008 by Liam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdobbin Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 The DJIA dropped after election day because it rose 400+ points on election day for no reason. And now it is up 150+ points. So that must mean the market loves Obama again? ha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Bandelot Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 "Stocks rise despite dismal employment news" http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3683270/ They're up, they're down. They're up... I wonder how Obama does that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oleg Bach Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 "Stocks rise despite dismal employment news"http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3683270/ They're up, they're down. They're up... I wonder how Obama does that? I wonder how I was born? It was probably caused by an up and down motion also. As a laymen I find the numbers distressing. This vacilation in the markets will eventually burn out investors emotionally and bring about more damage..the markets have to be stablized - even if they have to lie to do it. Money is a religion and you can not have bread being put in the mouth of a man and yanked out repeatedly - it will make him nuts and useless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkman Posted November 8, 2008 Report Share Posted November 8, 2008 I see we have the usual partisan responses to this issue, and I would be worried if we didn't. But what I object to is the MSM unwilling to report that this is the worst post election week in the Dow Jones ever. I also haven't heard any stories reporting how inaccurate the pollsters were, with most results in the days leading up to the election 11 points or more for Obama. He ended up with 52% to McCain's 46%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Bandelot Posted November 8, 2008 Report Share Posted November 8, 2008 I also haven't heard any stories reporting how inaccurate the pollsters were, with most results in the days leading up to the election 11 points or more for Obama. He ended up with 52% to McCain's 46%. With polls being accurate to only a few percentage points, thats pretty good. 11-3=8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted November 8, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2008 I see we have the usual partisan responses to this issue, and I would be worried if we didn't. But what I object to is the MSM unwilling to report that this is the worst post election week in the Dow Jones ever. I also haven't heard any stories reporting how inaccurate the pollsters were, with most results in the days leading up to the election 11 points or more for Obama. He ended up with 52% to McCain's 46%. Exactly. According to some of the polls, Obama was up as much as 15 points. And once again, Republican support was underestimated by the mainstream pollsters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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