New Poll

[BigGunner]

Ipos-Reid released another poll. Liberals would score a minority.

Nationally

Liberals 38% - up 2 points

Conservatives 26% - down 1 point

NDP 17% - unchanged

BQ 11% - up 1 point

Greens 4% - unchanged

BC

Liberals 33% - up 7 points

NDP 29% - up 3 points

Conservatives 27% - down 6 points

Greens 10% - up 4 points

Alberta

Conservatives 57% - up 10 points

Liberals 24% - down 4 points

NDP 16% - down 2 points

Green 2% - down 2 points

SK/MN

Liberals 36% - up 7 points

NDP 31% - up 2 points

Conservatives 24% - down 7 points

Green 6% - down 2 points

Ontario

Liberals 47% - up 1 point

Conservatives 31% - up 2 points

NDP 16% - down 2 points

Green 4% - unchanged

Quebec

BQ 49% - up 5 points

Liberal 31% - up 1 point

NDP 8% - down 1 point

Conservative 6% - down 4 points

Green 4% - up 1 point

Atl.

Liberal 49% - up 10 points

Conservative 31% - down 5 points

NDP 17% - down 1 point

Green 1% - down 1 point

[Goldie]

Ya what the hell is going on

Stronger in Ontario and Atlantic and weaker in the west for Conservatives?

[BigGunner]

Ya what the hell is going on

Stronger in Ontario and Atlantic and weaker in the west for Conservatives?

When they were the Reform party and Alliance party, they had the populist agenda on their side. Not anymore. Since they performed the hostile takeover of the PC party, the anti-establishment voter out here in the west is not as interested in the conservatives any more.

[maplesyrup]

BigGunner....thanks for posting this latest scientific poll.

CPC in third place in British columbia as I suspected.

This Ipsos-Reid poll confirms what University of victoria political scientist Norman ruff has stated that the NDP are poised to make gains in BC.

I continue to predict the NDP will take approximately 50% of the seats in BC

[August1991]

Thanks BigGunner for the info. All can read the press release here:

Ipsos Reid 2 March Poll

Detailed Stats

My own take? The Liberals are going to ride hard and heavy on Martin because he's the only thing holding them up. Ontarians trust Martin more than Harper. Imagine what that means.

[Michael Hardner]

Ontarians trust Martin more than Harper. Imagine what that means.

It seems to me that Harper is still being his colourless self in the face of this Liberal scandal. How would Mike Harris or Ralph Klein have acted as opposition leader ?

The one politician who seems to be most outraged by this is Martin, based on his on-camera performance. And his personal approval rating seems to bear this out.

[maplesyrup]

At least Belinda and Tony showed some passion at the debate in Montreal last weekend.

Was Harper there?

Belinda has found a position for Tony in her cabinet, where will she put Stephen?

[BigGunner]

Thanks BigGunner for the info. All can read the press release here:

Ipsos Reid 2 March Poll

Detailed Stats

My own take? The Liberals are going to ride hard and heavy on Martin because he's the only thing holding them up. Ontarians trust Martin more than Harper. Imagine what that means.

One has to look at the 2000 election results to get a better understanding of what these polls are telling us today.

The Liberals are not far off their previous election tally. They scored almost 41% in 2000 and are only 4 points off that pace. The Conservatives will gain at the expense in Ontario because of the conservative unity on the ballot, but they are still 7 points behind this 2000 unified tally (38%).

In the west, this formula has backfired. By taking on the eastern conservatives, the Conservative Party alientated the anti-establishment voter from the west and they have flocked to the NDP.

[Pellaken]

Ipos-Reid released another poll. Liberals would score a minority.

Nationally

Liberals 38% - up 2 points

Conservatives 26% - down 1 point

NDP 17% - unchanged

BQ 11% - up 1 point

Greens 4% - unchanged

BC

Liberals 33% - up 7 points

NDP 29% - up 3 points

Conservatives 27% - down 6 points

Greens 10% - up 4 points

Alberta

Conservatives 57% - up 10 points

Liberals 24% - down 4 points

NDP 16% - down 2 points

Green 2% - down 2 points

SK/MN

Liberals 36% - up 7 points

NDP 31% - up 2 points

Conservatives 24% - down 7 points

Green 6% - down 2 points

Ontario

Liberals 47% - up 1 point

Conservatives 31% - up 2 points

NDP 16% - down 2 points

Green 4% - unchanged

Quebec

BQ 49% - up 5 points

Liberal 31% - up 1 point

NDP 8% - down 1 point

Conservative 6% - down 4 points

Green 4% - up 1 point

Atl.

Liberal 49% - up 10 points

Conservative 31% - down 5 points

NDP 17% - down 1 point

Green 1% - down 1 point

really, we should compare this to the 2000 election, not the last poll.

The totals for the "Conservative Party" are the totals for the alliance and PC's combined.

The "Seats won" are NOT the real seats won, but, the seats that would have been won had the PC-CA vote been a single vote.

BC

CON-30 - 56.7%

Lib-3 - 27.6%

NDP-1 - 11.3%

AB

Con-25 - 72.3%

Lib-1 - 20.9%

NDP-0 - 5.5%

Prarie

Con-17 - 48.5%

Lib-6 - 26.9%

NDP-5 - 23.3%

ON

Lib-75 - 51.4%

Con-27 - 38.1%

NDP-1 - 8.3%

PQ

BQ-38 - 39.9%

Lib-36 - 44.2%

Con-1 - 11.8%

NDP-0 - 1.8%

ATL

Lib-15 - 40.7%

Con-13 - 41.5%

NDP-4 - 16.6%

[Pellaken]

comparavitvley:

Nationally (from this poll to the last election)

Lib 38 (-3)

Con 26 (-12)

NDP 17 (+9)

BQ 11 (+-0)

Grn 4 (+3)

BC

Lib 33 (+5)

NDP 29 (+18)

Con 26 (-31)

Grn 10 (+8)

AB

Con 57 (-15)

Lib 24 (+3)

NDP 16 (+11)

Grn 2 (+2)

Prarie

Lib 36 (+9)

NDP 31 (+8)

Con 24 (-25)

Grn 6 (+6)

ON

Lib 47 (-4)

Con 31 (-7)

NDP 16 (+8)

Grn 4 (+4)

PQ

BQ 49 (+9)

Lib 31 (-13)

NDP 8 (+4)

Con 6 (-6)

Grn 4 (+4)

ATL

Lib 49 (+8)

Con 31 (-11)

NDP 17 (+-0)

Grn 1 (+1)

[Pellaken]

Trends to note

Ipsos reid polls for the green party. that means they ask the people they poll "who would you vote for, Lib, Con, NDP, or green?"

Most people do not think of the greens as a feasable alternative yet, and so asking the people, as though it were, will get higher responces. if they were to ask for the CHP, or the communist party, they'd get the same results.

but, assuming these green numbers are right, they point to a huge boost for the party nationwide, especially ontario west. With these numbers, they could elect a seat in BC.

The NDP is up in every region, except the east, where it's vote remains unchanged. Historically, the NDP has not done well in the east anyway, so to remain stable here while re-gaining the traditional base is quite a feat.

The Conservatives has not yet managed to capture the traditional PC&CA votes. They are down, way down in some cases, right across the country. Due to the nature of the merger, this is expected, and hence does not spell disaster for the new party.

The Liberals have lost gorund in central canada, and made up for it with gains elsewhere. The Libereal party is now truly a national party, joining the Conservatives and NDP. (sorry for the dig there, but I did want to point out the Liberals are up in western canada)

now, to compare the conservative vote with previous CA/PC votes:

BC

CON-26 - down from old CA vote

CA-49

PC-11

AB

CON-57 - around old CA vote

CA-59

PC-14

PR

CON-24 - down from old CA vote

CA-39

PC-10

ON

CON-31 - Up from old CA vote

CA-24

PC-15

PQ

CON-6 - around the old total for either party

CA-6

PC-6

ATL

CON-31 - matches old PC vote exactly.

CA-10

PC-31

[BigGunner]

The key message to all of this recent polling is that the Liberals haven't gained or lost much in the recent fiasco.

They are in trouble though.

1. Conservative unity is a threat in Ontario.

2. Return of the NDP in the west, and Ontario

The more shocking news from the polling seems to be the failure of the conservatives to capture anything from the Liberals.

The combined 2000 vote for the PC and Alliance party was 38%. If the election was held today, that party would only get 26% - only a fraction of a point higher than the 2000 alliance total.

[Goldie]

At this point I don't care who benefits be it The Bloq at 49% in Qc or the NDP at 29%in BC or the Tories at 31% in Ontario. The important thing is that the scandal has eaten into the support of Liberals in key areas.

[maplesyrup]

At this point I don't care who benefits be it The Bloq at 49% in Qc or the NDP at 29%in BC or the Tories at 31% in Ontario. The important thing is that the scandal has eaten into the support of Liberals in key areas.

Goldie.....I think what you stated represents the viewpoint of a lot of Canadians at the moment.

Come election time, some will probably float back to the Liberals, and some will be looking for another home to park their vote.

This coming election, the three Canada-wide political parties, will all have new leaders of their respective parties, at the helm.

[maplesyrup]

Does anyone know how to take these regional polling percentages, and transfer then into seat numbers?

[August1991]

Does anyone know how to take these regional polling percentages, and transfer then into seat numbers?

That's the 64,000$ question. You have to know each province/region well and know how the numbers would break down into seats. For example, in Quebec, the Liberal vote is concentrated. In 1993, they elected 19 with 33% of the vote. Given the current polls I'd say BQ 55 and Libs 20 is a good prediction. Ontario is the tough call.

That number crunching is interesting Pelleken. It's apparent that the ex-Liberal voters have gone to the BQ in Quebec and to the NDP elsewhere. I think the fact that the CPC is below the CA is suspicious though.

First, this is all so fluid. There's a murky, ongoing scandal. The Tories don't have a leader.

Second, most people don't vote Liberal out of any passion. Many in Ontario vote Liberal the same way they buy Tide. That's what everyone else does. Many are immigrants who came to this country thinking of Trudeau and all that. Answering a poll is one thing; in fact, thinking, deciding and then going to vote another.

Third, as long as I can remember, the NDP was always going to make a big breakthrough and elect all these people. It never happens except provincially in the West. Well, it happened once in Ontario and people still remember.

Let's and wait see.

[Pellaken]

I use the http://esm.ubc.ca/CA04/forecast.html to help, but it's by no means the final word.

[August1991]

Thanks for the link. I was looking for it. Another example of how markets and prices can be applied. The CIA wanted to set up such a thing for estimating the odds of world events. It was roundly criticized by all the people that understand markets. The CIA should have let some university do it, as UBC does for us. You got any money in this?

[BigGunner]

I use the http://esm.ubc.ca/CA04/forecast.html to help, but it's by no means the final word.

That calculator is a nice toy, but does nothing to take into account political factors in play this time around.

1. Unifying the two conservative parties does not mean that each others supporters will vote for the new party

2. Rise of the NDP, thanks in part to the new leadership of the party and its recovery in the west.

[maplesyrup]

It is going to very close in the two most important areas:

1 - whether the Liberals get a majority or a minority.

2 - whether the Bloc forms the official opposition or not.

[Pellaken]

I dont think theres any quesiton that the tories will win the official opposition. All my predictions show them between 60 and 100 seats. I just cant see the bloc topping the 1993 total of 54 seats, and I find it hard to beleive the new conservatives would get less then that number. Even if you take the half the Edmonton ridings out, you still have 25 tories just from Alberta alone. I dont think there's any quesiton the party will pick up seats in Ontario, even a 1 or 2% gain for the Alliance would have got 5 seats in Ontario. Of the 12 seats in the former PC caucus, 10 were from the east. Even if half those seats are kept, thats 5 seats. There are 15 seats in SK/MB, lets say 5 again. we are now up to 40 seats, meaning 15 seats in BC, and you got an opposition. I think this is reasonable.

The question will be where will they fall in. The CA vote 66 seats. The CA + PC seats in the last election was 12+66= 78. According to UBC, had the 2 parties been one (done by hitting forcast without changing a thing) it would have had 114 seats. The current caucus has 73 members.

66-73-78-114. Where will the party fall in? If the party can manage more then 114 seats, we must consiter the possibility that it would form a minority government. 114 tories, plus 50 Blocists, and around 30 Dippers, totals 194, which is just 114 seats shy of the total.

For the NDP, the quesiton is how many PCers are voting Liberal. There are some ridings where we may be close to the Liberal. the result of this election will rely on just how many raw votes the Liberals can get. If the PCers stay home, the NDP will benifit, if they vote in droves for Martin, the NDP will suffer. We really could get anywhere between 50 and 5 seats depending on what the PCers do.

Conversley, almost every single seat we can take, we can take from the Liberals. The better we do, the better the tories do. If the tories are 20 seats behind the liberals, and we take 30 seats, that's a 10 seat lead, and a government for the tories.

This effect is seen in Quebec. All the BQ seats will be taken from the Liberals, the better the Bloc does, the worse the Liberals will do.

The longer martin waits to call this election, the worse it looks. The NDP and Tories are ready to go... NOW. The longer he waits the worse it will look, and the more people will gravatate away. I think this may be a close election actually, if Harper wins and the PCers stay home, we may see the tories actually win this if the timing is right.

[maplesyrup]

Realistically, looking at the polling figures, we will be lucky if we can hold the Liberals to a minority government.

Liberals may obtain a majority.

It will be very close.

[udawg]

Yeah, I don't realistically see a Tory government. Ontario will, undoubtedly, vote at least two thirds Liberal, maybe more depending on the leader of the CPC.

The only question in my mind is, Liberal minority or majority?

[maplesyrup]

udaw....of course, you are correct, so is Pell and Biggunner.