Harper's Style

[August1991]

Harper's style? Here's the little event to consider, and then I'll make a broader generalization.

There are three by-elections to be held on Monday September 8. These elections will be cancelled if the Governor-General dissolves parliament and orders new elections.

So what does Harper do? He waits until Sunday September 7 to visit the GG and say that he no longer commands the confidence of parliament. On Sunday, what choice does the GG have?

She can't tell Harper to test his confidence in Parliament, or refer to his act of a fixed date election. If she does, she commits to the by-elections and looks foolish for getting involved in politics when the government later falls and general elections ensue.

The GG has no choice but to acquiesce to his request for a general election. The by-elections happen the next day. There's no time for a parliamentary vote.

----

Such is Harper's style. He either puts people into a box from which they have no choice except what he wants (eg. GG) or else, he creates a situation where people have various choices but whatever they choose, Harper still comes out fine. (eg. Dion a few days ago could have supported the government or chose as he did to refuse a carte blanche. Either way, Harper wins.)

Harper did the same with Duceppe on the Quebec nation clause. Harper boxed him in. I suspect that Belinda Stronach quit the Copnservative Party because Harper boxed her in or created a situation where whatever she chose, Harper still won. Belinda, the spoiled only child, hated the control.

Harper appears to be a master - like Trudeau, Nixon and Mackenzie King.

Years ago, I thought that this era would become, in Canadian history, the era of Dion-Harper. Like Disraeli-Gladstone, I thought Harper-Dion would be heartfelt if unscrupulous adversaries in defining Canada. IMV, Canadians (English or French) don't appreciate how much we have two worthy adversaries disputing our country. I still think this. In some ways, I'd like to see Dion at 24 Sussex in November if only to see how English/French and various other Canadians react.

Then again, in this soon-to-be election, we may just have a Mackenzie King dispensing with a cerebral Arthur Meighen.

[daniel]

The GG always has the choice to instruct the opposition to form a coalition government for at least a year, thus forcing Harper to uphold his own legislation. After 2years of Conservatives, 1 year of united alternative, the voters can make an informed decision based on real performance.

[Moonbox]

entire Opening Post quote deleted by moderator

The Governer General is more or less an obsolete position in Canadian politics, much like the Queen is still our head of state. The GG effectively has zero choice or power in the matter.

Edited September 5, 2008 by Charles Anthony
deleted quote of Opening Post

[August1991]

The GG always has the choice to instruct the opposition to form a coalition government for at least a year, thus forcing Harper to uphold his own legislation. After 2years of Conservatives, 1 year of united alternative, the voters can make an informed decision based on real performance.

After two years of government, Jean couldn't really ask Dion to form a government. Tradition refuses such since it's been too long.

But Jean could have asked Harper to test his government's confidence in parliament. (Harper passed a law obliging Jean to do as much.) But Harper met all three opposition leaders, sought their approval, failed to get it and then goes to Jean on a Sunday when by-elections will be held the next day.

Harper has put Jean into an impossible situation. She can't refuse.

Such is Harper's style. He's like Trudeau and King except maybe that he has to work in an Internet era.

The Governer General is more or less an obsolete position in Canadian politics, much like the Queen is still our head of state. The GG effectively has zero choice or power in the matter.

Maybe (and I think you're wrong, read Adrienne Clarkson's comments) but Harper took no chances either way.

The GG has no choice.

Harper's like King, Trudeau and Macdonald. Whatever the opposition does, it loses - assuming the opposition has a choice.

Edited September 5, 2008 by August1991

[Smallc]

The Governer General is more or less an obsolete position in Canadian politics, much like the Queen is still our head of state. The GG effectively has zero choice or power in the matter.

Actually, they have the power to refuse a request or even dismiss the government. It helps to protect us from terrible things that we hope will never happen.

[tango]

The GG always has the choice to instruct the opposition to form a coalition government for at least a year, thus forcing Harper to uphold his own legislation. After 2years of Conservatives, 1 year of united alternative, the voters can make an informed decision based on real performance.

Interesting choice!

I hope she does.

Who wants another stupid v stupider election.

Make them work together for a change!!

Coalition for a year ... hmmm ... Can she really do that?

[jdobbin]

I thought that this era would become, in Canadian history, the era of Dion-Harper. Like Disraeli-Gladstone, I thought Harper-Dion would be heartfelt if unscrupulous adversaries in defining Canada. IMV, Canadians (English or French) don't appreciate how much we have two worthy adversaries disputing our country. I still think this. In some ways, I'd like to see Dion at 24 Sussex in November if only to see how English/French and various other Canadians react.

Then again, in this soon-to-be election, we may just have a Mackenzie King dispensing with a cerebral Arthur Meighen.

One or the other of the leaders is done after this election.

If the trend in polling continues in the campaign, the Liberals will be massively defeated. The first week will be key. If the Liberals perform better than the low expectations of them, they may be able to chip away at the trust issue.

Quebecers, however, will never forgive Dion. It is a losing battle for Dion to make gains there.

[August1991]

One or the other of the leaders is done after this election.

I strongly disagree.

We may have a Dion at 24 Sussex, and a Harper wanting to get back, or a Harper clasping to the ring of 24 Sussex. I think that these two (Harper/Dion) are, for better or worse, Canada's future.

[blueblood]

One or the other of the leaders is done after this election.

If the trend in polling continues in the campaign, the Liberals will be massively defeated. The first week will be key. If the Liberals perform better than the low expectations of them, they may be able to chip away at the trust issue.

Quebecers, however, will never forgive Dion. It is a losing battle for Dion to make gains there.

Who knows, maybe after 8 years in total of tory gov't, the Liberals will get back in, the party completely revamped. I thought that when Dion got elected, it was party brass wanting to clean out the closet completely.

The Liberals IMO are like the democrats, divided. The last of the "Trudeau" dynasty is being swept away. It was a shame that Martin got the shaft by them, that party needs more beancounters and less academics. I don't know why they would take Bob Rae, he is a cancer to that party, with Kennedy and Ignatieff on the opposite end of the spectrum than him. If the Libs share the same fiscal views you do, in the next five years they will be a contender, the trudeau policies of the 70's are a dead horse.

[jdobbin]

Who knows, maybe after 8 years in total of tory gov't, the Liberals will get back in, the party completely revamped. I thought that when Dion got elected, it was party brass wanting to clean out the closet completely.

If they Liberals are defeated in a big way this election, they may cease to be a party on the national front. I can't hazard a guess if they will have anything left. The PCs never recovered from their defeat by Chretien.

The Liberals IMO are like the democrats, divided. The last of the "Trudeau" dynasty is being swept away. It was a shame that Martin got the shaft by them, that party needs more beancounters and less academics. I don't know why they would take Bob Rae, he is a cancer to that party, with Kennedy and Ignatieff on the opposite end of the spectrum than him. If the Libs share the same fiscal views you do, in the next five years they will be a contender, the trudeau policies of the 70's are a dead horse.

Who knows if Kennedy will even win this election? Even Rae and Ignatieff might be swept aside in a route.

If the Tories win massively, the Official Opposition might be NDP or BQ.

[August1991]

If they Liberals are defeated in a big way this election, they may cease to be a party on the national front. I can't hazard a guess if they will have anything left. The PCs never recovered from their defeat by Chretien.

Huh?

The Liberals will survive this election = as they did with Turner in 1984 or Pearson 1958. I think that Dion may even finish in the GG's office to form a government. IOW, I may be wrong but I think the stakes are more complicated.

[blueblood]

If they Liberals are defeated in a big way this election, they may cease to be a party on the national front. I can't hazard a guess if they will have anything left. The PCs never recovered from their defeat by Chretien.

Who knows if Kennedy will even win this election? Even Rae and Ignatieff might be swept aside in a route.

If the Tories win massively, the Official Opposition might be NDP or BQ.

Wow, I don't much care for the Liberals, but I'd rather have them and the tories duking it out rather than the tories and NDP. In my opinion the Liberals and Tories aren't that much different, just on a few policies, that's it. To have the NDP have a legitimate shot at getting in, is not a good thing.

[jdobbin]

Huh?

The Liberals will survive this election = as they did with Turner in 1984 or Pearson 1958. I think that Dion may even finish in the GG's office to form a government. IOW, I may be wrong but I think the stakes are more complicated.

I am looking at the trend which if it continues indicates a massive victory for the Tories and possibly a Liberal party in tatters. If they can perform above very low expectations they might be able to hold the Tories to a minority but it is starting to look very unlikely.

I am less optimistic about survival as you are if things go badly. The Liberals may go the way of the Liberals of Britain if they lose Official Opposition status.

[jdobbin]

Wow, I don't much care for the Liberals, but I'd rather have them and the tories duking it out rather than the tories and NDP. In my opinion the Liberals and Tories aren't that much different, just on a few policies, that's it. To have the NDP have a legitimate shot at getting in, is not a good thing.

Think Manitoba on a large scale. I'd continue to vote Liberal if a federal party existed but it might be just a rump of a party as it is in Manitoba.

[blueblood]

Think Manitoba on a large scale. I'd continue to vote Liberal if a federal party existed but it might be just a rump of a party as it is in Manitoba.

That would depend on who's leader. Doer has made one big gaffe and that was it. Doer is a lot closer to the fed. libs than fed. dippers. It would be interesting to see how the NDP would handle this and how what direction their policy goes.

[jdobbin]

That would depend on who's leader. Doer has made one big gaffe and that was it. Doer is a lot closer to the fed. libs than fed. dippers. It would be interesting to see how the NDP would handle this and how what direction their policy goes.

I don't think Layton is the man to take them to the government benches.

[blueblood]

Huh?

The Liberals will survive this election = as they did with Turner in 1984 or Pearson 1958. I think that Dion may even finish in the GG's office to form a government. IOW, I may be wrong but I think the stakes are more complicated.

August,

Manitoba is in my opinion a miniature Canada right down to the last detail. If you haven't noticed Dobbin and myself are as polar opposite as you can get. He is a Winnipeg Liberal and knows the city well. IMO, urban Winnipeg is the same as urban anywhere in Canada (except for Calgary and Edmonton), and if he senses that the Liberals are going to get smoked in Winnipeg, that does not look good for the party in the rest of the country.

[Argus]

I am looking at the trend which if it continues indicates a massive victory for the Tories and possibly a Liberal party in tatters.

What are you talking about, jdobbin? Is this some ploy to scare people away from voting Tory? I haven't heard ANYONE suggest that the current trend even indicates a Tory majority, much less a "massive victory" shattering the liberals.

[jdobbin]

What are you talking about, jdobbin? Is this some ploy to scare people away from voting Tory? I haven't heard ANYONE suggest that the current trend even indicates a Tory majority, much less a "massive victory" shattering the liberals.

I doubt very much that people are becoming scared of voting Tory. The trends on leadership and on key issues are what gives a strong indication of a big defeat for the Liberals. It is possible in the this election that the Liberals could be reduced to just one seat in Manitoba, total defeat in Saskatchewan, total defeat in Alberta and only a handful of seats in B.C. I don't see any gains in Quebec and a large defeat in Ontario looms. Atlantic Canada might be a saw off with an exchange of seats.

Edited September 5, 2008 by jdobbin

[Argus]

I doubt very much that people are becoming scared of voting Tory. The trends on leadership and on key issues are what gives a strong indication of a big defeat for the Liberals. It is possible in the this election that the Liberals could be reduced to just one seat in Manitoba, total defeat in Saskatchewan, total defeat in Alberta and only a handful of seats in B.C. I don't see any gains in Quebec and a large defeat in Ontario looms. Atlantic Canada might be a saw off with an exchange of seats.

Well at least you'll always have newfoundland! Maybe you can teach that clown, Willams to speak French and make him your next leader.

[Wild Bill]

Well at least you'll always have newfoundland! Maybe you can teach that clown, Willams to speak French and make him your next leader.

First he might learn English!

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Let the crap hit the fan. Four weak leaders will put Canadians to sleep there will be little if any change in the makeup of government. A monumental waste of money to achieve nothing.

Harper doesn't have enough backbone to believe in his own efforts. He deserves to lose, but there are two many sheep that follow his footsteps seeking the political crumbs that spill to the floor.

Dion is a lite weight, and Layton is a union goon. The boy from Quebec cares not for the rest of the country.

There is no winning for the losing this election.

[jdobbin]

Well at least you'll always have newfoundland! Maybe you can teach that clown, Willams to speak French and make him your next leader.

Williams is a populist using the Tory name in Newfoundland. Actual Liberals in that province are pretty much devastated and the NDP could supplant them in future years.

Edited September 5, 2008 by jdobbin

[normanchateau]

What are you talking about, jdobbin? Is this some ploy to scare people away from voting Tory? I haven't heard ANYONE suggest that the current trend even indicates a Tory majority, much less a "massive victory" shattering the liberals.

I suspect that how Canadians vote on October 14th is independent of any comments made by you, I or jdobbin on mapleleafweb.

[August1991]

Manitoba is in my opinion a miniature Canada right down to the last detail. If you haven't noticed Dobbin and myself are as polar opposite as you can get. He is a Winnipeg Liberal and knows the city well. IMO, urban Winnipeg is the same as urban anywhere in Canada (except for Calgary and Edmonton), and if he senses that the Liberals are going to get smoked in Winnipeg, that does not look good for the party in the rest of the country.

I don't know Manitoba at all but I will say that Liberal support in Montreal is not as solid as it was. The BQ or even NDP may matter.

More seriously, the Liberals are no longer a viable party outside of Montreal.

I doubt very much that people are becoming scared of voting Tory. The trends on leadership and on key issues are what gives a strong indication of a big defeat for the Liberals. It is possible in the this election that the Liberals could be reduced to just one seat in Manitoba, total defeat in Saskatchewan, total defeat in Alberta and only a handful of seats in B.C. I don't see any gains in Quebec and a large defeat in Ontario looms. Atlantic Canada might be a saw off with an exchange of seats.

That's absurdly pessimistic. Dobbin, are you superstitious?

The key point in your pessimistic rant is Ontario. The Liberals will get at least 30 seats there if onl;y for Toronto and the region.

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I'm intrigued by Harper's style and what it means for Canada. We seem to choose Kings, Trudeaus and Nixons whereas Americans get rid of them, neuter them or never elect them in the first place.