Election September

[jdobbin]

http://www.citynews.ca/news/news_26076.aspx

t's not necessarily the word you want to hear on the first day after you get back to work and school on the morning after Labour Day: election.

A highly placed source within the Conservative Party says Prime Minister Stephen Harper is tantalizingly close to pulling the trigger on his own government and sending you to the polls in October.

The unnamed confidant claims the Tory boss could make the decision as early as September 2nd, one day after the holiday weekend and the time most people consider it's back to business as usual.

Seems that most of the Tories are itching to pull the plug themselves. I wonder what their internal polls are telling them.

Edited August 26, 2008 by jdobbin

[maldon_road]

The unnamed confidant claims the Tory boss could make the decision as early as September 2nd, one day after the holiday weekend and the time most people consider it's back to business as usual.

And between now and September 2nd there will be at least another half dozen other rumors from an "unnamed confidant".

If Harper is going to pull the pin he will at least meet the House and then claim the Opposition is continuing to be "disruptive".

I just heard Labour Minister Blackburn say he he is being called back to Ottawa in a few days for a special meeting. To organize the party's Christmas party, perhaps?

Edited August 22, 2008 by maldon_road

[jdobbin]

And between now and September 2nd there will be at least another half dozen other rumors from an "unnamed confidant".

If Harper is going to pull the pin he will at least meet the House and then claim the Opposition is continuing to be "disruptive".

I just heard Labour Minister Blackburn say he he is being called back to Ottawa in a few days for a special meeting. To organize the party's Christmas party, perhaps?

There may be no pay off going back to the House for the Tories. The Liberals generally do better in the polls when the House sits and not so well when it isn't sitting. This summer we haven't really seen a Tory bounce. This might be as good as it gets.

[maldon_road]

There may be no pay off going back to the House for the Tories. The Liberals generally do better in the polls when the House sits and not so well when it isn't sitting. This summer we haven't really seen a Tory bounce. This might be as good as it gets.

How does he justify it? He has said he would call an election if the other parties don't permit him to fulfill his agenda. He can only do that AFTER the House resumes and there is evidence of a problem.

[Vancouver King]

I wonder what their internal polls are telling them.

Storm clouds on the horizon? A statistical tie with negative outlook? Go now and make up ground during the campaign?

You can wager the internal polls are a sobering read.

[jdobbin]

How does he justify it? He has said he would call an election if the other parties don't permit him to fulfill his agenda. He can only do that AFTER the House resumes and there is evidence of a problem.

He can just repeat the Parliament is dysfunctional and go the Governor General. It's not like some Tory supporters are not going to vote for him anyway.

[August1991]

Seems that most of the Tories are itching to pull the plug themselves. I wonder what their internal polls are telling them.

I'm not so certain. By this tactic, Harper is forcing the opposition (Duceppe and Dion in particular) to concentrate their minds. Harper's puttiing agun to their heads.

Once again, this is a tactic that is no lose for Harper. If it works, the opposition will accommodate him. If it fails, the opposition will bring down the government and we'll have an election. I don't see Harper going to the GG (but who knows...)

BTW, Jean-Piere Blackburn has cancelled activities to prepare for an election.

Le premier ministre du Canada, Stephen Harper, ne fait pas que répéter qu'il songe bientôt à dissoudre le Parlement pour forcer la tenue d'élections générales, il prépare aussi ses troupes.

Vendredi, le ministre du Travail, Jean-Pierre-Blackburn, a annoncé l'annulation de ses activités pour les prochains jours en raison de l'imminence d'un scrutin.

« J'ai eu un avis qu'on devait se présenter demain pour une réunion spéciale quelques ministres en compagnie du premier ministre », a-t-il déclaré, vendredi, lors d'un événement public à Saguenay. La rencontre se déroulera à Ottawa.

R-C

Of course, this could be just a credible threat to put pressure on Duceppe.

-----

It's in Harper's interests to maintain this parliament. To stay in power, he only requires the support of one of three opposition parties. A future parliament may not be so easy.

[maldon_road]

It's in Harper's interests to maintain this parliament. To stay in power, he only requires the support of one of three opposition parties. A future parliament may not be so easy.

I would suggest advantage Harper. One thing I don't see is the CPC getting LESS seats than now in a general election. I think that will be clear after September 8th where the Liberal vote will be lower than expected.

Edited August 23, 2008 by maldon_road

[Stephen Best]

Given the fixed election date law--which Harper introduced and now proposes to flaunt--I wonder if the GG will dissolve Parliament at the PM's request, or will she require that he obey his own law. If the writs are issued at Harper's request, the fixed election date law is meaningless.

[Stephen Best]

I would suggest advantage Harper. One thing I don't see is the CPC getting LESS seats than now in a general election. I think that will be clear after September 8th where the Liberal vote will be lower than expected.

Generally, by-election results are a poor indication of future general election results.

The reality is, in my view, that Harper has judged that the lesser of political evils is taking the political heat for flip flopping on his fixed election date law and promise rather than suffer the revelations of illegal campaign spending that will come at the various committee meetings and in court, and the voter backlash he can expect as fighting in Afghanistan increases, the economy tanks, and a deficit reemerges.

It's likely that the CPC will get less seats in Ontario and Quebec. It is, in my view, unlikely that Harper will be the next Prime Minister. The more Canadians see him--as they will on the campaign trail--the more they distrust him, and rightly so. Dion has the opposite effect.

[maldon_road]

Generally, by-election results are a poor indication of future general election results.

The reality is, in my view, that Harper has judged that the lesser of political evils is taking the political heat for flip flopping on his fixed election date law and promise rather than suffer the revelations of illegal campaign spending that will come at the various committee meetings and in court, and the voter backlash he can expect as fighting in Afghanistan increases, the economy tanks, and a deficit reemerges.

It's likely that the CPC will get less seats in Ontario and Quebec. It is, in my view, unlikely that Harper will be the next Prime Minister. The more Canadians see him--as they will on the campaign trail--the more they distrust him, and rightly so. Dion has the opposite effect.

One thing I have never seen is a poll where the Liberals were actually ahead of the CPC. Even yes, but the consistent reality is that the CPC is more popular. And if there has been one it's an exception.

The one thing that will kill Dion is the carbon tax. That by itself will lose him the election.

But it would be silly and not to his advantage for Harper to call an election now. Two weeks after Sept 15 and he will have what he needs to show that the current House can't work.

Edited August 23, 2008 by maldon_road

[Stephen Best]

One thing I have never seen is a poll where the Liberals were actually ahead of the CPC. Even yes, but the consistent reality is that the CPC is more popular. And if there has been one it's an exception.

See Torry Support Slides in New Year. The problem the CPC faces is that it can't grow. That's demonstrated in that its support since the last election hasn't changed. Most Canadians don't want Harper as Prime Minister, over 65%. The Liberals can grow by taking votes from the NDP and Green parties. Moreover, where the CPC needs to grow if it hope to ever form a majority--Ontario and Quebec--it trails the Liberals or the BQ. The same for urban areas, where Harper is anathema.

The thing to remember is that national polls mean very little. What's important is what happens at the electoral district level, and that's where the Liberals have it all over the CPC. The national polls are distorted by massive support for the CPC in areas with few seats and Liberals' modest support in regions with the most seats.

And lastly, if Dion is such a buffoon as Harper and CPC advertise, why haven't they been able to make gains on him? It's because most Canadians will never vote for Harper and the CPC. In the next election, the Liberal campaign will show that Dion is not quite the buffoon Harper claims--this is the danger of the CPC's negative ads. They will show that the CPC ads are distortions and will lower the voters' trust in the CPC even more. Negative ads like those run by the CPC tend to bite the ass of the party that airs them.

[maldon_road]

The Liberals can grow by taking votes from the NDP and Green parties. Moreover, where the CPC needs to grow if it hope to ever form a majority--Ontario and Quebec--it trails the Liberals or the BQ. The same for urban areas, where Harper is anathema.

On the other hand the Oppos could split the left wing vote.

There is grumbling about Harper, of course. But not enough to replace with a questionable leader who is proposing tax hikes and no doubt will have grandiose spending plans.

And lastly, if Dion is such a buffoon as Harper and CPC advertise, why haven't they been able to make gains on him?

And if Harper is so bad why does he continue to lead in the polls?

The national polls are distorted by massive support for the CPC in areas with few seats and Liberals' modest support in regions with the most seats.

And in Quebec the Libs huge margins in parts of Montreal overstate their popularity province wide.

Dion has had plenty of opportunity to force an election and every time he has chickened out. He's the guy not sure of an election.

[jdobbin]

I'm not so certain. By this tactic, Harper is forcing the opposition (Duceppe and Dion in particular) to concentrate their minds. Harper's puttiing agun to their heads.

If he does pulls the plug himself, it isn't like Conservative supporters are going to hold him accountable for the fixed election promise.

It will make others though wonder what the fixed election promise was all about. It was made specifically to keep the government from picking the date themselves.

[jdobbin]

And if Harper is so bad why does he continue to lead in the polls?

He leads personally on leadership. His party is below the Liberals now nationally.

And in Quebec the Libs huge margins in parts of Montreal overstate their popularity province wide.

The same can be said about Alberta and national results for the Tories in Canada.

Dion has had plenty of opportunity to force an election and every time he has chickened out. He's the guy not sure of an election.

And this will be the justification for Harper to call an election before going back to Parliament?

[Stephen Best]

On the other hand the Oppos could split the left wing vote.

Quite possibly. NDP and Green voters who do not go with the Liberals will likely stay with their preferred parties. They will not vote for Harper, of that you can be sure. And, if that's the case, we'll have another Harper minority government. In my view, that's the best Harper can hope for, unless he's delusional.

[Wilber]

I would be disappointed if he didn't stick to the fixed date. A government throwing the country's business into the dumpster, putting governing on hold for months and inflicting the expense of an election on the public for nothing more than a perceived political advantage is one of the least admirable things about our political system. Back to the same old, same old.

[maldon_road]

And this will be the justification for Harper to call an election before going back to Parliament?

Absolutely none whatsoever which makes me think that all this is Tory disinformation. He would be subject to much criticism in calling an election and negating by-elections and of course he couldn't justify it on a "dysfunctional" Parliament.

Dion is still sounding like Hamlet in what he will do after the House gets back. Harper should let things go as they go. Dion will be pestered by the media as to "will he, won't he" when it comes to an election. Meanwhile if the Oppos become obstructionist Harper will have an excuse to pull the pin.

[jdobbin]

Absolutely none whatsoever which makes me think that all this is Tory disinformation. He would be subject to much criticism in calling an election and negating by-elections and of course he couldn't justify it on a "dysfunctional" Parliament.

However, if Harper did pull the plug, it wouldn't change your vote for him so it doesn't seem like much of a downside.

There might be some that criticize it but were they going to vote for Harper anyway?

Edited August 23, 2008 by jdobbin

[maldon_road]

Quite possibly. NDP and Green voters who do not go with the Liberals will likely stay with their preferred parties. They will not vote for Harper, of that you can be sure. And, if that's the case, we'll have another Harper minority government. In my view, that's the best Harper can hope for, unless he's delusional.

We don't need a majority government in Canada. The Tories haven't earned it and I haven't trusted the Liberals for years.

[maldon_road]

However, if Harper did pull the plug, it wouldn't change your vote for him so it doesn't seem like much of a downside.

There might be some that criticize it but were they going to vote for Harper anyway?

And many who criticize him were planning to vote against him anyway.

The economy, Afghanistan, Dion's carbon tax and our usual fight over medicare will ensure that this particular procedural matter will not be a factor in the election.

[Wild Bill]

I would be disappointed if he didn't stick to the fixed date. A government throwing the country's business into the dumpster, putting governing on hold for months and inflicting the expense of an election on the public for nothing more than a perceived political advantage is one of the least admirable things about our political system. Back to the same old, same old.

Yeah...but!

I'll bet that only a few political junkies like us even know about the new fixed election date Bill, much less understand it and give a damn.

There's a lot of emotional rhetoric in this thread. People seem to project their wishes as reality, without much to back them up. Everyone is entitled to their own opinions but not their own set of facts, after all.

Demonizing your opponent is also a waste of time. Canadians NEVER get perfect choices! They ty to go for the best fit they can. Otherwise, if even a fringe party like the Libertarians would get in simply because they champion legalizing pot.

No, it's been my observation over the years that Canadians vote parties out, not in. They only do this if two simultaneous conditions are being met.

One is if they are very dissatisfied with the state of their lives at the time of election. If we are in a bad recession like when the Mulroney/Campbell government fell, together with high unemployment and valid fears of losing jobs then people want to go with the choice that looks most competent to correct the situation.

The other is that there must be a good-looking option!

This is where things like leadership and not looking like an elitist come into play. Maybe the reason the polls are so even for the Libs and Tories has been that to the average citizen there has been little or no reason to pay attention! Neither choice has been thrilling or inspiring between the two major parties.

This all changes the moment the election is called. People begin to pay attention. This is where I believe that Harper has the edge. He comes across as a cold fish. People might not prefer that but polls also show they believe him to be a more COMPETENT cold fish! Dion on the other hand comes across too much like a professor. Few folks believe teachers to be practical, real world people. They are academics, with all that implies. You can like a teacher but even if he teaches you autoshop you're still likely to want to take your car to a professional.

It's been a while since AdScam. The average joe is beginning to forget. He's also unlikely to remember Harper's fixed election law since he never noticed it in the first place! So what is he going to see?

I think that when voters begin to wake up they will notice that the economy is shaky. Polls consistently show that Harper is considered the better choice in this area. They will also notice Dion's "NewGST" with its Carbon Tax.

Assuming they even understand the Carbon Tax it's not likely it will be appealing. Maybe in flush times when nobody is hurting they might take a chance for the egoboo of helping to "save the planet". To campaign with it when people are hurting or scared is much more of a challenge. People are worried about surviving TODAY and that, coupled with fear and a lack of confidence in any more taxes and parties to make them painless by being "revenue neutral", likely means that Dion will lose some seats overall. Perhaps not enough to give Harper his majority but if the overwhelming difference in the size of the campaign party war chests means anything even a majority is possible.

It's hard to buy enough signs when you're broke with bad credit, after all.

Or maybe that's where all those missing millions from AdScam ended up? In a secret Liberal election war chest!

Man, you gotta admire that Chretien! What foresight!

[jdobbin]

Demonizing your opponent is also a waste of time. Canadians NEVER get perfect choices! They ty to go for the best fit they can. Otherwise, if even a fringe party like the Libertarians would get in simply because they champion legalizing pot.

You say demonizing your opponent is a waste of time and then do it.

It is obvious it is never a waste of time to demonize your opponent.

[Topaz]

The only reason Harper got to be PM was some voters wanted change but they didn't trust Harper 100%. Would Harper been PM if he ran under the Alliance? Likely not! I also think progressive Conservatives thought they were voting for their party and as it was said by one of theirs, "WE are NOT that party" The Cons want a election to get rid all of the baggage they have collected especially with Election Canada.

[Wilber]

I'll bet that only a few political junkies like us even know about the new fixed election date Bill, much less understand it and give a damn.

They will know about it before the campaign is over. Parties campaign on and are elected to govern, not call elections. To bad they are always ready to put their own political interests ahead of their responsibility to do what they were elected to do. Govern.