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jdobbin

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Ah yes, more nuggets of wisdom from the Iraqi Minister of Propaganda during Desert Storm.  Thanks mooner!

Anyway, here’s yet another incoming indicator of a major recession.  Goldman Sachs, with its worst earnings miss in a decade.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/01/17/goldman-sachs-fourth-quarter-results-are-coming-what-the-street-expects.html
 

Shares of New York-based Goldman fell more than 6% in early trading.

"Widely expected to be awful, Goldman Sachs' Q4 results were even more miserable than anticipated," Octavio Marenzi, CEO of Wall Street consultancy Opimas, said in an email. "Revenues were largely in line with forecasts, but earnings took a big hit. The real problem lies in the fact that operating expenses shot up 11%, while revenues tumbled."

I advise the propaganda minister not to read the article, because it contains the word, “layoffs”.
 

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2078385356_sharkmanretarded.thumb.png.a6856145dd00247737f51608cb137398.png

and then jobs go up, and employment goes down, but trawling the internet for bad news so he can tell everyone the sky is falling makes more sense.  ?

(Chart courtesy of US Bureau of Labor Statistics - Employment Situation - Dec 2022)

Facts and reality brought to you by..."the MiNiStR of Iraki Propuganda".  ?

Edited by Moonbox
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Party city files for bankruptcy.

https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/party-city-files-chapter-11-bankruptcy-protection-2023-01-18/

 

That’s 900 stores and a peak of 16,000 staff in 2021.  16,000 jobs, 10,000 at Microsoft and 18,000 at Amazon.  Plus the thousands I’ve mentioned earlier.  Still 12 days left in January, how many more foreclosures and layoffs will we see?

 

Edited by sharkman
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13 hours ago, sharkman said:

NO!  THE PARTY CITY!?  BEDROCK OF THE US ECONOMY?  

image.jpeg.15becdcd8201f621675cbe00b0ee8c2d.jpeg

Meanwhile:

WASHINGTON, Jan 19 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to another month of solid job growth and continued labor market tightness despite efforts by the Federal Reserve to cool demand for workers.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-unexpectedly-fall-2023-01-19/

Party City is definitely the most important news here though.  

 
 
Edited by Moonbox
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Okay, let’s do the math on what January has brought us with actual layoffs.

Amazon.         18,000 layoffs

Microsoft.       10,000

Party.              14,000

Meta.              11,000
 

Bed Bath Beyond closing many stores.

Macy’s. Closing 150 stores.

Salesforce.  10% of staff laid off.

Vimeo  11% of staff laid off.

Then you have reported smaller layoffs, say under 2,000 for each corporation:

shopify

Stripe

Coinbase

Twitter

And this is by no means a complete list.  Add it all up and it is not a pretty picture.  What does it mean?  Coupled together with high inflation and high interest rates, it’s not business as usual, that’s for sure.

 

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8 hours ago, sharkman said:

And this is by no means a complete list.  Add it all up and it is not a pretty picture.  

So far, if you add it all up, we're still seeing employment go UP, and unemployment go DOWN.  That's the magic of mathematics, brother.  

2078385356_sharkmanretarded.thumb.png.a6856145dd00247737f51608cb137398.png

8 hours ago, sharkman said:

What does it mean?  Coupled together with high inflation and high interest rates, it’s not business as usual, that’s for sure.

What does it mean, I wonder?  It's perhaps not business as usual, but if we're continuing to see job growth and inflation is starting to go down noticeably, you may not be getting the financial armaggeddon you were hoping for.   

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7 hours ago, sharkman said:

All I’m doing is listening to Michael Burry

No you're not. You're just repeating his name like a cave man.  MY...KUL...BOOO....REEE  

WHAT IS MICHAEL BURRY ACTUALLY SAYING?  

Cite him.  Give us an example of some of what he's saying recently, and what he's predicting for the near future.  Stop pointing at his name like an ape and waving your arms around.  

 

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Look it up yourself, wise guy.

Meanwhile, we can add Google to the list.  They are laying off 12,000, announced yesterday.  Just as Michael Burry predicted with the downsizing of tech white collar jobs.

Thats got to be over 100,000 announced jobs lost in January alone(with another 10 days to go). To say nothing of the unannounced companies issuing layoffs across the US.  
 

Michael Burry was right with tech jobs, Tesla, inflation, and crypto.  And he’s saying the Dow will tank.  Folks beware.  Mooner, do whatever your little heart wants.

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15 minutes ago, sharkman said:

Look it up yourself, wise guy.

What are you asking me to look up?  I can't look it up if you can't tell me what it is I'm supposed to find.

15 minutes ago, sharkman said:

Michael Burry was right with tech jobs

Along with half of the economists and analysts around the world.  People were talking about a tech bubble in early 2021.  

15 minutes ago, sharkman said:

Tesla, inflation, and crypto.  

Tesla was priced as the most valuable auto company in the world, while having a barely noticeable share of the market.  Anyone who didn't believe it was worth 146x its earnings knew it was going to crash.  

Crypto is still nothing but a ponzi market where fools bet against each other.  

The bus driver that takes you to work was predicting inflation. 

 

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Your hindsight is 20/20.  Michael Burry's foresight predictions are money.

 

Edit:  Might as well add a story link, this time on auto loans.  Because Severely delinquent car loans jumped in December and now are at the highest rate since 2008.

Quote

 

New bone-chilling data via Cox Automotive sheds light on the rapidly deteriorating auto loan market. The report said loans delinquent by more than two months increased by 5.3% and jumped 26.7% from a year ago.

 

 
 
This is just another warning sign that a serious recession could be around the corner. 
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On 1/21/2023 at 9:50 PM, sharkman said:

Your hindsight is 20/20.  Michael Burry's foresight predictions are money.

No.  Do a google search for "TESLA OVERVALUED" or "Crypto is a Ponzi" from 2017-2019 and you can find innumerable takes on this long before Burry ever weighed in.  Fund managers and investment analysts have some pretty simple measurements to gauge the value of an asset.  One of the most common is EPS (earnings per share).  For a by-the-numbers stock picker, EPS of 15-25 is considered reasonably priced. 

TESLA at its peak was valued 5-6x higher than that, meaning it was at minimum 500-600% overvalued.  Michael Burry was not the only person pointing this out, as TESLA bulls were basically betting on Elon Musk's perfect execution and TESLA building more cars than any of the other major autos within the next few years.   

For Bitcoin and other crypto currencies, which have no earnings potential, the EPS was infinity, meaning it had zero intrinsic value and thus paying $60,000 USD for a single unit was literal insanity.  Again, people were talking about this long before Michael Burry.  

I know you saw a movie that featured the guy, and that's really cool and all, but he's calling out stuff that everyone else had already predicted before him.  He was right on these topics, but there were large camps of people on either side of these issues and he chose the right one.  

On 1/21/2023 at 9:50 PM, sharkman said:

Edit:  Might as well add a story link, this time on auto loans.  Because Severely delinquent car loans jumped in December and now are at the highest rate since 2008.

 
 
This is just another warning sign that a serious recession could be around the corner. 

This is a much better post and comment than usual, and proposing that a serious recession could be around the corner is at least within the realm of reasonable discussions.  The source itself doesn't really say much that's interesting, and the US credit bureaus are forecasting auto-loan delinquency to go down in 2023, but there ARE concerns of overall lending problems on the horizon outside of that:

https://newsroom.transunion.com/2023-consumer-credit-forecast/

 

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It’s more than a bit peculiar that moon box is attempting to counter every single economic post I make in this section.  Very rarely does he ever respond to anything I post in the rest of the forum, but it’s like he’s patrolling this one section.  
I don’t really know what to make of it.  Often times simply shouting down whatever I’m saying without even reading the accompanying link.  It’s repeatable and I could set my watch by it.  Not one other person responds to me in this section.  
 

And it’s not like he is particularly interested in these topics.  Otherwise he’d make his own posts, theories and the like.  Links to stories he’d found, as I’m doing.  Even start his own threads in this section, if he was so interested in economics.  

But no.  All he ever does is respond to my posts like some kind of weird internet stalker.  
 

So how about it moonbox, why the strange behaviour?  And remember, you need to make it sound plausible.

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On 8/14/2008 at 7:22 AM, jdobbin said:

Inflation is rising fast.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26195964/

There are many analysts predicting a lot more pain.

I found this analyst in particular to be interesting.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...PStory/Business

Things looked pretty dire back in 2008.  We generally don’t have that pessimism yet, but things haven’t really fully developed yet.  

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6 hours ago, sharkman said:

So how about it moonbox, why the strange behaviour?  And remember, you need to make it sound plausible.

Because this topic is the focus of my background, my education and my career.  I don’t need to start new threads about this because I talk about it, read about it and run numbers for it all day at work.  
 

I’m responding to your posts because they’re clueless.  You don’t know a damned thing about what you’re writing, and like the goofy conspiracy theorists and the crypto bros who insisted we were heading for hyper-inflation in 2021, your insistence that we’re headed for financial calamity will turn out equally misguided.  You’re also the only one really posting here, so I don’t really have anyone else to respond to here, so I?  Ask Army Guy how ready I am to respond to central banking posts, if you’re feeling victimized.  ?


 

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I've heard of Robert Kiyosaki.  He's a scam artist with a list of bankruptcies, class-actions lawsuits and fraud claims against him.  His claim to fame hasn't been good investments, but rather tricking gullible fools into buying his books and paying for his expensive seminars and multi-level-marketing schemes (those are the people suing him).  

Great source, as usual.  ??

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

I've heard of Robert Kiyosaki.  He's a scam artist with a list of bankruptcies, class-actions lawsuits and fraud claims against him.  His claim to fame hasn't been good investments, but rather tricking gullible fools into buying his books and paying for his expensive seminars and multi-level-marketing schemes (those are the people suing him).  

Great source, as usual.  ??

 

 

Wow, another billionaire you don’t like!  Well since he’s more successful than you, and has a grasp of the world macro economy that eludes you, I’ll give more weight to what he says.  

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He's not a billionaire, and being successful at scamming greedy simpletons into get-rich-schemes and is hardly demonstrative of macro-expertise.  If he's such a genius, you should make sure to attend his next seminar and read all of his books.  Get back to us when it makes you a millionaire.  ?

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1 hour ago, Moonbox said:

He's not a billionaire, and being successful at scamming greedy simpletons into get-rich-schemes and is hardly demonstrative of macro-expertise.  If he's such a genius, you should make sure to attend his next seminar and read all of his books.  Get back to us when it makes you a millionaire.  ?

Yes, he's not a billionaire.  I checked after I posted and thought I'd leave it in for your enjoyment.  I'm afraid I've found yet another business person that knows more about such things than you do.  Since he's worth at least 100 million and you're not, I'm gonna have to let you go.  I suggest you look for work in the wonderful world of fast food.

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