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Canada 2004 Election - Forecast


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Now that Parliament has resumed and we are facing an election shortly, it might be fun to try our hand at forecasting the results.

Here's mine, do you wish to share yours?

My forecast:

Alberta: 28

Bloc

Con 20

Lib 8

NDP

British Columbia: 36

Bloc

Con 20

Lib 8

NDP 8

Manitoba: 14

Bloc

Con 4

Lib 5

NDP 5

New Brunswick: 10

Bloc

Con

Lib 10

NDP

Newfoundland and Labrador: 7

Bloc

Con

Lib 7

NDP

Northwest Territories: 1

Bloc

Con

Lib

NDP 1

Nova Scotia: 11

Bloc

Con

Lib 11

NDP

Nunavut: 1

Bloc

Con

Lib

NDP 1

Ontario: 106

Bloc

Con 20

Lib 76

NDP 10

Prince Edward Island: 4

Bloc

Con

Lib 4

NDP

Quebec: 75

Bloc 37

Con

Lib 38

NDP

Saskatchewan: 14

Bloc

Con 4

Lib 5

NDP 5

Yukon: 1

Bloc

Con 1

Lib

NDP

Canada: 308 (155 required for majority gov't)

Bloc 37

Con 69

Lib 172

NDP 30

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I have yet to do BC

despite that, here are the numbers I have so far

a note on how this was done.

I went riding by riding, and picked who was going to win.

but more importantly

I picked (it will be close, and if they dont win, then ___ will win)

so for example, in Lethbridge, I said the Tories would win, but the Libs will make a good show of it.

Therefore, there is a maximum and minimum for each party along with my guess.

If you want the individual ridings and who I said they'd go for, PM me.

Ters:

Lib 3 = 0-3

Con 0 = 0-1

NDP 0 = 0-1

BC

not yet done

AB

Lib 6 = 3-9

Con 22 = 19-25

SK

Lib 5 = 3-6

NDP 5 = 4-5

Con 4 = 3-7

MB

Lib 6 = 4-8

NDP 4 = 4-5

Con 4 = 2-5

ON

Lib 73 = 53-93

Con 18 = 7-30

NDP 15 = 5-24

PQ

Lib 57 = 52-67

BQ 18 = 8-23

NB

Lib 7 = 9-4

Con 2 = 1-5

NDP 1 = 0-1

NS

Lib 6 = 3-8

Con 2 = 2-4

NDP 3 = 1-4

PE

Lib 4 = 3-4

Con 0 = 0-1

NL

Lib 5 = 3-6

Con 2 = 1-4

CANADA (without BC)

Lib 172 = 130-213

Con 54 = 35-82

NDP 28 = 14-40

BQ 18 = 8-23

I will lessen the variance as the election draws closer.

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I think it is too soon to make an acurate prediction but I would have to say with the current "problems" going on....

Alberta: 28

Bloc

Con 28

Lib 0

NDP

British Columbia: 36

Bloc

Con 25

Lib 2

NDP 9

Manitoba: 14

Bloc

Con 5

Lib 3

NDP 6

New Brunswick: 10

Bloc

Con 2

Lib 8

NDP

Newfoundland and Labrador: 7

Bloc

Con 2

Lib 3

NDP 2

Northwest Territories: 1

Bloc

Con

Lib 1

NDP

Nova Scotia: 11

Bloc

Con 6

Lib 4

NDP 1

Nunavut: 1

Bloc

Con

Lib 1

NDP

Ontario: 106

Bloc

Con 20

Lib 70

NDP 16

Prince Edward Island: 4

Bloc

Con 1

Lib 2

NDP 1

Quebec: 75

Bloc 40

Con 3

Lib 31

NDP 1

Saskatchewan: 14

Bloc

Con 5

Lib 2

NDP 7

Yukon: 1

Bloc

Con 1

Lib

NDP

totals:

Bloc: 40

Con: 95

Lib: 123

NDP: 43

well there you go...the CPC has gone up 16 seats since the last time I made my predictions...and the NDP has gone up 5, and the bloc has gone up 5, and nto to suprisingly the librals have gone down 26 seats in my books.

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