Queenmandy85

That is the point, Step over the line, and you are going to die. No question. You will die. Your family will die. Your country will be unihabitable for thousands of years. Are you sure that is what you want? Think carefully. If you and your little tank cross into Poland, by the time you have gone 10 km, you will be part of a radioactive cloud of ash drifting back home to Moscow where you can join the radioactive cloud of ashes tha used to be Putin. Whether your goal is Paris or a pub 5 metres across the border, you are dead. That is deterrence.

In 1971, I wrote a paper on the decline of the Canadian Forces for a History paper. What surprised me was that it was nothing new. With the coming war with Nazi Germany, in the late 1930's, we had a total military force of 4500. We had three ships. The flagship had warped forward guns. In late August 1939, there were large anti war protests in Vancouver. When war came, and conscrition was finally introduced, conscripts (zombies) were promised they would not have to serve overseas. 60,000 conscripts did not volunteer to serve overseas. In 1944, the government reversed that policy because the CAF in Europe were very short handed. The garrison in Terrace BC, made up of mostly Saskatchewan zombies, mutinied. The took over the town and held it for a week. I have campaigned for a viable military force for Canada since 1971. Nobody listens. No politician, and nobody on this forum is in favour of Canada having a defence capability to act independently of allies in defence of Canada. They whine that is it too expensive and we don't have the population. Well, Bucko, we have the same population as Ukraine. In 1945 we had a million people in the CAF, one of the largest navies and air forces with one third of our population. Rather than a large conventional force, I say we need a large nuclear force. But, as soon as the war was over, we reverted to neglecting our defence. I am tired of it. A few months ago,I had a revelation that, with the exception of World War Two, no major war in the last thousand years has actually accomplished anything good. Most of them could have been settled at the conference table without all the killing. Military history is very interesting, as long as you don't think about all the people who died. We have several members of this forum, such as Army Guy and Doug and others who have served our country and who deserve tremendous respect.

F-35's and Leopard II tanks are no help in emergencies like earthquakes and floods. We do not use the military for civil disorder. We have police for that. If the US ever does invade, is conventional resistance worth the death toll? I suspect we would resign ourselves to it. If there is a Russian attack against NATO, it will result in a general nuclear exchange. F-35's and tanks would be irrelevant. It is NATO's nuclear weapons that deter Russia, not conventional forces. Ironically, a build up of NATO's conventional forces weakens deterrence, but signalling an attack on NATO would be answered conventionally. Deterrence relies on the guarantee that crossing the frontier would result in total nuclear destruction. That is incorrect, What we are doing now will affect the global population in about two centuries. That was the estimate in the 1970s (250 years) and it hasn't changed. It has only been confirmed. We are almost out of time now. We can mitigate it by converting to nuclear power. We have enough uranium for 200 years, by which time, we will have replaced it with thorium fueled reactors. That only works if we have the petroleum to lubbricate the generators and the steel to build them. Petroleum, coal and iron are the three pillars of technological civilization. Burning oil and coal for energy is a total waste. These resourses belong to future generations who will rely on them to survive. HomoSapiens have only been here for a couple of hundred thousand years. That is only a third of the species life expectancy. Our cousins, Homo Erectus, was around for one and a half million years. You would think we are smarter than they are.

NATO will no longer have the US as a reliable partner after President Trump moves back into the Oval Office. Russia will be be sorely tempted to recover the former Warsaw Pact slave states. Ukraine has been a valuable lesson for the Russian military. They ignored the doctrine established by the Soviets of opening an offensive with an overwhelming artillery barrage because they miscalculated and failed to use sufficient force. On the unlikely scenario where the Russian army does not include nuclear artillery, they will hit NATO with everything they have in their conventional arsenal. They will have replenished their tanks lost in Ukraine. Scenario 1. If they break through, how do you imagine France will react when the Russians are advancing on the Rhine in force? French and British forces will nuke the bejeezus out of the Russians. Scenario 2. If the Russians get bogged down in the German killing zones and suffer heavy losses, they will not have the conventional forces left to stop a counter attack and subsequent invasion of Russia. What do you think they will do? Nuke the bejeezus out of NATO (including the US.) There are other scenarios but they all result in the same conclusion. Which ever scenario you choose, it will result in an all out strategic nuclear exchange. The Canadian Forces will have no impact on the result.

During the onslaught of the Covid pandemic, it was essential to,in the words of Conservative Premier Higgs, "Stay the blazes home." The stringent measures enacted by the provincial and federal governments cost a lot of money, but they saved tens of thousands of lives. Time was critical. The close co-ordination of provinces and the federal governments resulted in better outcomes than nations who failed to take it seriously. Housing is a more important issue for many Canadians than defence. The dental plan is an issue that the NDP required in exchange for their support. For the government to toss that support would be suicide. It has bought time for the government. It is easy for us to say tell them to step over the cliff, but would you or I just throw away all our time and effort so easily? Personally, if I were PM facing annihilation in the next election, I would rather put it off for as long as possible. In the long run, there are a lot of people who need the dental plan and if it provides more access to dental care, it will save money for healthcare. By the environment, we face a situation where most Canadians do not understand what the greenhouse effect is going to have on our future generations. That is a criminal indictment on the education system. When you hear otherwise intelligent people more worried about today's economy than the devestation coming down on our future generations, it makes you weep at how ignorant and greedy we are. Homo Sapiens are a rare species of animal that is able to see far into the future and has the ability to adjust our behaviour to prevent our actions from causing catastrophe. Yet, we are too selfish to do anything about it. Compared to the coming tsunami of disaster presented by global warming, our economy and defence issues are totally insignificant. We are asking the taxpayers to spend their money on a defence force that is unlikely to make any difference. If the Americans invade us, is the Canadian Armed Forces going to be able to repell them? If the Russians attack a NATO country, are we going to have the nuclear weapons to Destory them? Same question with China? Anyone who believes a war between NATO and Russia will not go nuclear with in days of the first engagement is niave.

That has always worked for me, but I sometimes get a sense that the Conservative prime directive of God, King and Country is no longer resonant. Perhaps, you and I are the only Conservatives left. We live in a world of liberals, republicans and bolsheviks.

As I asked above, where are my numbers wrong? Mr. Poilievre has not committed to 2% of GDP. While any increase is welcomed, even he cannot work miracles. Governments can only do what the electorate will allow.

How do you propose to attract that many recruits? It is possible theoretically, but how do you achieve that without conscription. Anyone who has read Canadian history knows consription is a non-starter. While Trudeau was not keen on the armed forces (this was the middle of the Viet Nam War), the credit for wrecking the Canadian Forces goes to Paul Heller and Mike Pearson. No government since then has made any move to correct the downward trajectory of the CAF. Even those on this forum who want to reverse this trend still want to depend on clinging to the Americans for protection. The last Canadian Prime Minister to refuse to take orders from the Americans was John Diefenbaker. This is not a criticism of the US, but we need to have the capacity to be independent of the US when our interests diverge from theirs.

Perhaps I am mathematically challenged. We have about 28 million taxpayers. We spend $20 billion on defence now. To get to 2%, we need another $18 Billion, but friction being what it is, I rounded it up to $20 billion over and above what we pay now. $20 billion divided by 28 million taxpayers equals $714. If we presume nothing changes and the $18 billion remains the same, (like prices never go up in government procurements) it comes out to $642.86 per taxpayer. So, I am relying on your superior math skills to show me my error.

We used to, and we should, but we won't. The voters don't see that as a priority.

In order to get to 2%, the average taxpayer will have to pay an extra $700 in taxes. Spending on defence is easy. Getting the revenue to pay for it is the problem. Why do you think governments have let the Forces decline so much? If the voters wanted a credible Canadian military, the governments would do it. The fact that governments don't make defence a priority is because it isn't a priority for the voters. Beyond the increase in the Defence budget is the re-building in our armaments industry. That is a big price tag in its self.

But how much of a deterrent will NATO be when President Trump is back in the Whitehouse as Putin's Manchurian candidate.

Except that not enough Canadians are willing to serve and even fewer are willing to pay for it. We have immediate problems with under funded education system, healthcare and housing. It is hard enough to get people to pay taxes to fix those immediate problems without also having to get them to pay for defence, which most people have no interest in. We need to train and hire math, chemistry, physics and geography teachers, family doctors and trades people more than infantry soldiers. People need to get a decent education in the sciences now, access to a family physician now, and a roof over their heads now. They don't see war as imminent and even if it were, the Canadian Armed Forces are not percieved by most taxpayers as sufficient to make the investment of another $20 billion over what we spend now as worth it. I have argued for an effective military for over a half a century and never changed anyone's mind except for my own. I look at what is happening in Gaza. I understand the reaction of Israel, but all they have accomplished is to strengthen their enemies and kill tens of thousands of people who had nothing to do with Hamas. The Israeli response has achieved nothing. They have taught their enemies how to stick it to Israel.

As you say, it all depends on who is POTUS. If Russia believes the west's nuclear deterrent is a paper tiger, then a third world war becomes more likely. If Canada had its own independent nuclear deterrence, we would be in a position to prevent Russia from such folly. But, that is not going to happen. So, it all comes down to the question, Would I rather live as a slave, or die a free man. That was an easy question when I was young and stupid. Now I am old and I have a tremendous desire to live longer than my great uncle Jack who lived to be 104 and was fit both mentally and physically when he died. When we talk about war, we forget about the majority of people (millions) who will suffer or die in a conflict they have nothing to do with.

That capability depends on the Americans. It is a valid system for the next nine months and six days. Beyond that, our alliance with our neighbour depends on who is taking the oath at the inauguration. The likely result is that it will be President Trump. At that point, the US will no longer be a reliable ally and the potential for an American invasion, while still remote, becomes much higher on the scale of probability. I recall the reaction of the Trump Administration after a meeting when a remark made by the Canadian Government was taken out of context and caused a response that was way out of proportion. I am sure President Trump still has that video of a half dozen leaders discussing the President's behaviour and laughing. We can be certain each of them has their photo red circled. On Jan. 21, 2025, all bets are off...except my bet that Donald J. Trump will be elected President.