[And Just Like That..... All the Polls Say it's a TIE! Whodathunkit?]

25 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Given that this geezer golf ad does not feature Poilievre, the Tories’ own polling must show that older men aren’t as keen on them or the leader as they usually are. 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/last-week-ad-campaigns-conservative-ads-no-pierre-poilievre-1.7514897

 

Yeah those kept coming up during the Leafs game.  Seems like the Conservatives are finally acknowledging him as the liability he is, and put him in the candidate protection program.  😐

[Ukraine Can't Win the War]

4 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

1. Yes there were. Those people were content as Ukrainians. All they wanted was to retain their Russian heritage.

Ah, so when Vladimir Putin sent his little green men over the border, and eventually invaded altogether, it was all to protect those with Russian heritage?  Speaking of Nazis:

4 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

2. They have shown surprising restraint.

Oh yeah, such restraint:

[Jim Balsille: Canada’s Problem Isn’t Trump. Canada’s Problem Is Canada]

22 hours ago, BeaverFever said:

But, according to Balsillie, none of this can be blamed on Trump. He thinks that over the last thirty years we’ve clung to an outdated economic model and have allowed our politics to be captured by corporate interests.

He's not wrong, but it's a bit of a strawman, isn't it? 

Who's blaming Trump for the last 30 years of economic fecklessness in Canada?

Even the original NAFTA was a failure in many regards, with the promise from the US for a certain percentage of research funding to be based in Canada only being honored for a few years before it was abandoned with no challenge from our governments.  

[Ukraine Can't Win the War]

29 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

Did Comic-Boy have his private NAZIs attack the eastern provinces? Why yes he did. And ya know what Moonbat?

So if they're eastern provinces of Ukraine, they were attacking themselves?  

31 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

They got exactly what they begged for. A good b1tch slappin'.

Yeah, the Russian army has really overperformed, hasn't it!?  🤡

[And Just Like That..... All the Polls Say it's a TIE! Whodathunkit?]

15 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Here you go   This explains clearly why you effed up.  You go the math wrong   

Understanding the margin of error in election polls

It is not enough for one candidate to be ahead by more than the margin of error that is reported for individual candidates (i.e., ahead by more than 3 points, in our example). To determine whether or not the race is too close to call, we need to calculate a new margin of error for the difference between the two candidates’ levels of support. The size of this margin is generally about twice that of the margin for an individual candidate. 

Kudos to you for actually citing something specific and directly for a change, even if it's not great.  At least it's real, and it's true for the USA, just not Canada:

While this is the correct conclusion when there are only two possible survey responses, it is not correct when there are more than two possible responses, which is in fact virtually always the case. How much difference this makes depends on how many responses are outside the two categories of interest.

-Charles H. Franklin University of Wisconsin, Madison October 27, 2002 (Revised, February 9, 2007) 

(It's off a PDF that I don't know how to hyperlink) 

For a 5.4% lead to be a a "statistical tie", you'd need the Liberal vote to be overestimated by at least half that, and for PP to be the 100% beneficiary of it (which is already unlikely).  You also need the NDP/Green/Bloc numbers to be (at minimum) almost dead-on.

As before, you're assuming all of the variability leans heavily in the Conservatives' favor, and that the Bloc/NDP/Greens somehow don't exist.  

TLDR:

Sorry kiddo/muffin , nice try, good effort, but you're still wrong.  

[Ukraine Can't Win the War]

On 4/21/2025 at 11:11 AM, User said:

The funds are still flowing and Trump is working towards peace. 

By repeating Russian propaganda, like Ukraine started the war....

Let me guess though, it's not a big deal because he didn't say anything like that in the last two days? 🙄

[And Just Like That..... All the Polls Say it's a TIE! Whodathunkit?]

30 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Sure it is. Their statistically tied.

Not when you have to double the margin of error to get yourself there! 

Let's see now...

Difference between 42.6 - 37.1 = 5.5

Margin of Error = 2.7

QUICK!  What's 5.5 - 2.7?  

🤡🤡🤡

[And Just Like That..... All the Polls Say it's a TIE! Whodathunkit?]

8 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Everything I said is accurate

Except for the part about all of the polls being tied, which is categorically not true.  🤡🤡🤡

[And Just Like That..... All the Polls Say it's a TIE! Whodathunkit?]

2 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Oh my god, that is what literally every poster talks about. Yes they are in a statistical tie if they were within the margin. Go look it up. That is the most commonly used phrase out there when it comes to polling.

When you're within the margin of error one way, you can call that a statistical tie.  Mainstreet definitely, and maybe EKOS could say that.  

These predictions are made on distributions, however, so the further from the polled number, the less likely they predict it will be.  For most of the other polls to be "ties", you need the unlikely scenario that their margins of error are both fully realized, and that they both go in the direction required for the Conservatives.  That's wishful thinking. 

It's not impossible, and momentum could swing, but if the election were held today they're still predicting a Liberal majority, and by 1 point higher than they did yesterday.  

 

[And Just Like That..... All the Polls Say it's a TIE! Whodathunkit?]

2 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

FFS it's ONE PAGE AGO.

Those aren't ties, donkey.  

Assigning the negative margin or error to the Liberals and the positive to the Conservatives is wishful thinking, not actual logic. 

If done in reverse, then the Conservatives are 10 points behind.  Nobody is starting a thread about that though, because they're not completely retarded.  

 

[And Just Like That..... All the Polls Say it's a TIE! Whodathunkit?]

1 minute ago, CdnFox said:

I've literally posted four. If you need more than that go look it up yourself.

Where's that?  Not here.  Is this going to be another example of you refusing to provide any cites or evidence, while insisting you totally already did?   

Michael already posted the proof on how wrong you were, so at this point it's just a matter of how much energy you'll spend petulantly ranting at us over how retarded you made yourself look...again.  🤡

[And Just Like That..... All the Polls Say it's a TIE! Whodathunkit?]

Just now, CdnFox said:

Sure kiddo   You didn't have the balls to ask me directly about something and I'm the one that's looking stupid

I just did dumdum.  Show us where all of the polls say it's a tie, or we can safely conclude that you've clowned yourself...again.  

As for the rest, make up your mind over which fantasy you're going to subscribe to.  Am I the coward too afraid to engage you, or am I the sad puppy following you and engaging you everywhere?  🫠

[And Just Like That..... All the Polls Say it's a TIE! Whodathunkit?]

6 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

LOL what, you were too afraid to ask me directly? ROFLMAO!  I guess it makes sense seeing as you always wind up looking stupid  

You're the one looking stupid here, muppet.  

Why bother asking you directly? You so regularly prove yourself full of shit that it felt safe to assume this was another example of you clowning yourself.  Feel free to prove otherwise.  🙄

[And Just Like That..... All the Polls Say it's a TIE! Whodathunkit?]

Just now, eyeball said:

The OP's toaster.

It's probably tuned to Rebel News.

beat you to it, sucka.  

[And Just Like That..... All the Polls Say it's a TIE! Whodathunkit?]

1 minute ago, Michael Hardner said:

I'm not sure who is saying it, not appearing in my feed but most of us who quote the "polls" seem to be circumspect when looking at it.  And that's how it should be.

Just our resident genius, it seems.  He probably got it from the fine "journalists" at Rebel News.  🫠

[And Just Like That..... All the Polls Say it's a TIE! Whodathunkit?]

6 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

Look at that... why you are right 😮

https://338canada.com/polls.htm

Didn't realize that at all.  They ARE rated A- which is a high rating.

Yeah I think they are fine.  They're supposedly the 4th-5th most reliable in Canada, which sounds bad but is actually pretty good.

I'm just confused by where we get "All the Polls say it's a TIE" when it appears to only be a single pollster out of many.  😑

[And Just Like That..... All the Polls Say it's a TIE! Whodathunkit?]

33 minutes ago, Boges said:

The CPC won the popular vote last election and still lost. 

The FPTP system rewards broad-based support. If PP can't do well in Ontario and Quebec, who cares if he has extraordinary support out East and West. 

He's getting clobbered out East as well, by almost 17 points.  He's +10 points down in Ontario and 16 points down in Quebec.  

I'd love to see where genius is getting his polling information from though, because the only pollster I've been able to find showing the race is a tie is Mainstreet Research.  

I'm not prepared to make any prediction here.  The polls still look really bad for Poilievre from what I can tell, but I find it hard to believe the Liberals can actually get re-elected after Trudeau pooped all over Canada.  

[FEDERAL DEBATE SCANDAL]

15 hours ago, CdnFox said:

The judge literally agreed they're journalists producing their own content, but not enough. 

No, the judge literally disagreed they were journalists, citing that almost nothing they produce is original news content.    

It was an emphatic rebuke of who Rebel Media is and what they do, with the federal court judge summarizing that the large majority of what they publish has no basis in facts and that what little that does is almost all coming from other organizations and being reposted.  

For you to sit there and point at the fact that 2% of what they post is actual original news content is proof of their journalism chops is peak comedy. You are what you do, and if 98% of your time is spent doing things other than journalism, calling yourself a journalist is retarded, but very on-brand for you.  🤣👌

[FEDERAL DEBATE SCANDAL]

15 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Nope   The judge said they did some. They said that they didn't do enough as a organization to qualify for the grant but they did say they did so. Go take a look at the reading

Ten articles out of the ~420+ they posted.  TEN.  That's 2% of their content.    

The judge confirmed they don't qualify as a journalism organization.  

17 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

We both know you're wrong.

...and we both know what it means when you need to start telling everyone you're winning.  🤡

[FEDERAL DEBATE SCANDAL]

9 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

So they're journalists.  Working for a news organization that produces original news content related in this case to politics. 

Lol nope!  That's the part the federal judge confirmed they don't actually do.  When asked to submit a 3-week period of their content for review, only 10 out of 400+ "articles" they published had anything even resembling original news content.  

Ranting uselessly about stuff and spreading 10-IQ misinformation doesn't count as news.  If it did, you'd be the most prolific "journalist" in the country!  🤣 

[Poilevre wants to reverse the single-use ban on plastics!]

6 hours ago, Barquentine said:

Remember this? "Maybe your mom will make you some mac'n'cheese and you can get out of the basement for a few minutes."? (Back in Feb.)

You're not the first, or even the 50th person who's said something like this to him on this forum.  

How do you debate someone who literally has no life? 🥴

[Polling, and the Asch Experiment]

51 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

The important thing is to keep the bubble intact, so BBC, CBC, the European Broadcasting Union, AP, Reuters, the NYTimes, WashPo, Google, YouTube, Twitter, and FB all got together to keep their false narratives straight, such as the BSL4 story and the laptop story. 

Yeah, exactly.  They're all in it together.  BBC, CBC, Europe's Broadcasting Union, AP, Reuters, the NY Times, Washpo, Google, Youtube, Twitter, FB, FBI, Illuminati, the Free Masons, the Mind Control Vampires from Zeta Reticuli...

They're all in it together to fool us.  

🤡🤡🤡

2 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

The important thing is to keep the bubble intact, so that America's #1 news source does what it was designed to do: keep the Republicans in power.

The bubble is comfy.  The bubble is safe.  🫂

[FEDERAL DEBATE SCANDAL]

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

You mean a journalist 🙄

No, here's the whole quote:

For the purpose of accreditation, a "media organization" is an organization that either produces original news content related to coverage of Canadian or international political news, or covers political, social and policy issues.

Bolded is journalism.  Second part is wide open: advocacy groups, think-tanks etc.  

As already mentioned, a federal judge just ruled they don't count as a journalism organization, because they're not actually producing any original news content.  They're just a bunch of loud shrills reposting content from elsewhere and ranting about made-up shit and other nonsense. 

Of course you're a fan.  🙃

 

[GO OUT AND VOTE!]

2 hours ago, Nefarious Banana said:

Gigantic national debt . . . nothing to show for it.

Oh well, just pass it off to the grandchildren and their children.

What color is the sky in the Liberal la-la land?

All true, the problem that Poilievre has is that he can't convince most Canadians that he's the solution.  The cure has to be better than the disease.  Talking about 15% income tax cuts while ragging about the deficit is not confidence-inspiring.  

[FEDERAL DEBATE SCANDAL]

1 minute ago, Michael Hardner said:

They REGISTERED as an advocacy group so that they could run election ads! 

That's the crazy thing here.  They don't even try to hide that they're nothing but political activists, but the apes are so desperate for the noises they want to hear that they'll convince themselves this is a credible news source anyway.